MANILA, June 26, 2026 — Millions of Filipinos across Luzon and Visayas will contend with rain, strong winds, and rough coastal waters on Friday as the Southwest Monsoon, locally known as habagat, tightens its grip on the western half of the country. At the same time, Severe Tropical Storm "Gardo" — though still far outside Philippine territory — continues to stir activity in the broader atmosphere, according to PAGASA's 4:00 AM forecast bulletin issued this morning, valid until 4:00 AM on Saturday, June 27.
A second tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Mekkhala (formerly "Francisco"), is also being tracked outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, sitting 830 km northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon. Neither Gardo nor Mekkhala is directly threatening land at this time, but their presence reinforces the active monsoon pattern affecting the country today.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
The primary driver of today's conditions across most of the archipelago is the Southwest Monsoon, or habagat. In plain terms, habagat is the seasonal wind system that blows warm, moisture-laden air from the southwest into the Philippines — typically from June through September. When it is active, it funnels large amounts of moisture over Luzon and Visayas, producing persistent rain, low clouds, and rough seas along western coastlines. The presence of Severe Tropical Storm Gardo far to the east is enhancing this monsoon flow, making it stronger and more organized than it might otherwise be at this point in the season.
Severe Tropical Storm Gardo was located approximately 1,285 km east of Extreme Northern Luzon as of 3:00 AM today, packing maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near its center and gusts of up to 115 km/h. It is moving north-northwestward at 25 km/h. Because Gardo is outside PAR and moving away from a direct landfall track, PAGASA has not issued tropical cyclone wind signals for any part of the country. However, its interaction with the monsoon warrants continued monitoring.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
The heaviest impact today falls on several provinces in western and central Luzon. Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro are forecast to receive the most significant rainfall — occasional heavy rain is expected throughout the day, driven directly by the Southwest Monsoon pushing moisture into these windward-facing coasts. Residents in these areas should be prepared for the possibility of localized flooding and landslides, particularly in low-lying areas and along mountain slopes.
Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Rizal, and Laguna (the CALABARZON region), along with the rest of MIMAROPA (which includes Palawan, Marinduque, Romblon, and the remaining Mindoro provinces) and Central Luzon, will experience cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. While not as intense as the provinces mentioned above, these conditions are persistent enough to disrupt daily routines and outdoor activities. Commuters in Metro Manila should expect wet roads and potential traffic during morning and evening rush hours.
The rest of Luzon — including the Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Bicol — will similarly see cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms. No part of Luzon is expected to be completely dry today.
Visayas
The Southwest Monsoon extends its reach into the Visayas, where cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the region. This means residents of Cebu, Iloilo, Leyte, Samar, Negros, Bohol, and surrounding island provinces should prepare for intermittent rain throughout the day. While no extreme rainfall warning has been issued for the Visayas, the conditions are sufficient to affect outdoor travel, farming activities, and fishing operations.
Mindanao
Mindanao, which is generally sheltered from the direct effects of the Southwest Monsoon, will still experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and possible thunderstorms in many areas. These are attributed to localized weather systems and thunderstorm activity rather than the monsoon directly. While conditions are less severe than in Luzon, residents across Davao, Zamboanga, Northern Mindanao, Soccsksargen, Caraga, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region should remain alert to the possibility of sudden downpours.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Alert Level Means for You
PAGASA has not issued tropical cyclone wind signals for any part of the Philippines as of this bulletin, as both Gardo and Mekkhala remain well outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility. However, the forecast does identify areas of significant rainfall concern — particularly Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro — where the heaviest monsoon rain is expected.
If you are unfamiliar with how PAGASA's color-coded rainfall warnings, storm signals, and heat-index alerts work, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings to understand exactly what each level means and what action you should take.
In practical terms: the "occasional heavy rain" forecast for Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro means residents should treat today as a high-alert day — keep drains clear, avoid areas near rivers and creeks, and do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Scattered thunderstorms across the rest of Luzon and Visayas carry the risk of sudden, intense downpours in a short period, even if overall conditions seem manageable.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
PAGASA's forecast paints a challenging picture for anyone on or near the water today. Winds over Northern Luzon are expected to be moderate to strong, coming from the southwest, producing moderate to rough seas. This is a significant hazard for small vessels.
Over Central Luzon and the rest of Luzon, winds will be light to moderate from the southwest, with slight to moderate seas — still enough to make small-boat travel uncomfortable and potentially dangerous in exposed waters.
In the Visayas and the rest of Luzon's coastal areas, light to moderate winds are expected, with slight seas. Mindanao will see light to moderate winds from the south-southwest, with generally gentle to slight seas.
PAGASA advises all fisherfolk and small boat operators to exercise caution before setting out, particularly those operating in Northern Luzon waters where seas are classified as moderate to rough. Vessels that are not designed for rough open-water conditions should remain in port today.
What These Conditions Mean for You
Commuters
Metro Manila and surrounding provinces in CALABARZON and Central Luzon should expect wet conditions throughout the day. Allow extra travel time, particularly during morning rush hours and afternoon commutes. Flash flooding is possible in low-lying urban areas after heavy downpours. Do not attempt to walk or drive through flooded streets — even shallow floodwater can be deceptively dangerous.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Conditions are most hazardous off the coasts of Northern Luzon, where moderate to rough seas are forecast. PAGASA strongly cautions small vessel operators in this zone. Even in areas with lighter seas — Visayas and Mindanao — sudden squalls from thunderstorms can rapidly worsen conditions at sea. Check local PAGASA updates before departing, and do not ignore weather advisories.
Farmers
The persistent monsoon rain is a double-edged situation for agriculture. While rain is generally beneficial during the wet season, heavy and prolonged rainfall in Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro increases the risk of soil saturation and localized flooding that can damage crops. Farmers in these areas should assess field drainage conditions and secure any equipment or harvested produce that may be vulnerable to flooding.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Given the widespread rain forecast across Luzon and Visayas, parents and students should monitor announcements from their local government units and school administrations regarding class suspensions. While PAGASA has not issued extreme weather warnings at this time, conditions in Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Metro Manila could warrant local precautionary decisions by authorities. Keep umbrellas and rain gear on hand.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery personnel, and others who work outdoors across Luzon and Visayas face a day of persistent rain and possible thunderstorms. Employers and supervisors should evaluate whether outdoor operations should be modified or suspended during periods of heavy rain or lightning activity. Lightning from thunderstorms poses a serious risk to anyone in open areas or elevated positions.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's bulletin includes temperature reference data for Metro Manila recorded the previous day. The maximum temperature recorded was 34°C and the minimum was 26°C, with relative humidity noted in the morning. Cloud cover and rain associated with the Southwest Monsoon may moderate daytime temperatures slightly compared to dry-season conditions, but humidity levels will remain high, making it feel warm and muggy even when it is not raining. Stay hydrated throughout the day.
Tracking the Two Tropical Cyclones
While neither Gardo nor Mekkhala is currently threatening the Philippines directly, both systems bear watching. Severe Tropical Storm Gardo — with maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h and gusts to 115 km/h — is moving north-northwestward at 25 km/h and remains 1,285 km east of Extreme Northern Luzon. Tropical Storm Mekkhala is 830 km northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon, moving north-northeastward at 25 km/h with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h and gusts of up to 105 km/h. PAGASA will issue updates on any changes to the tracks or intensities of these systems. The public is encouraged to follow official PAGASA communications for the latest advisories.
Bottom line: The Southwest Monsoon is the main story today — if you are in Luzon or Visayas, treat this as a rainy, rough-weather day and plan accordingly. Residents of Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro face the heaviest rain and should be on alert for possible flooding. Fisherfolk in Northern Luzon waters should stay ashore given moderate to rough seas. Keep monitoring PAGASA for updates on both Gardo and Mekkhala, as the situation remains active.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.