MANILA, June 24, 2026 — Typhoon Francisco is churning in waters northeast of the Philippines this Wednesday, close enough to Batanes to threaten the country's northernmost communities with dangerous winds and rough seas, even as the southwest monsoon drenches large parts of Luzon and the Visayas with heavy rain. PAGASA is tracking both Francisco and a second tropical storm still far to the east, making this one of the more complex weather situations the country has faced so far this rainy season.
Residents from Batanes down to the Visayas are being asked to stay alert, prepare for possible flooding and landslides, and keep watch for updates throughout the day.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
Two separate weather systems are shaping conditions across the archipelago right now, according to PAGASA's 4:00 AM bulletin issued on June 24, 2026.
The primary concern is Typhoon Francisco (Mekhala). At 3:00 AM today, PAGASA estimated its center to be approximately 350 kilometers east-northeast of Calayan, Cagayan — or 278 kilometers east of Basco, Batanes — at coordinates 20.3°N, 124.6°E. It is carrying maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center, with gusts reaching up to 190 km/h, and is moving northward at 10 km/h. While the typhoon remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as of this morning, its proximity to Batanes means that northern Luzon — particularly the Batanes and Babuyan island groups — is already feeling its influence through strong winds and dangerous coastal waters.
A typhoon is a mature tropical cyclone in the western Pacific. At 185 km/h sustained winds, Francisco is a powerful storm capable of causing widespread destruction if it were to make landfall. Its current northward track is being closely watched by PAGASA forecasters.
The second system at play is the southwest monsoon, known locally as habagat. This is the seasonal wind pattern that blows warm, moisture-laden air from the southwest across the country each year from roughly June through September. When enhanced by a nearby typhoon — as is the case today — habagat becomes significantly more intense, pushing heavy rainfall deep into Luzon and the Visayas. Today, PAGASA confirms the southwest monsoon is affecting Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and the Visayas.
A third system, Tropical Storm Higos (2608), is also being monitored. As of 3:00 AM today, it is located approximately 2,285 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h and gusts up to 80 km/h, moving westward at 15 km/h. It remains well outside PAR and poses no immediate threat to the Philippines, but PAGASA is tracking its movement.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Northern Luzon (Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Cagayan Valley, and nearby areas)
Northern Luzon is facing the most direct influence from Typhoon Francisco today. PAGASA forecasts rainy conditions with gusty winds for this part of the country. Residents of Batanes, the Babuyan Islands, and the Cagayan Valley — including Isabela and nearby provinces — should expect strong to potentially dangerous wind conditions and rough to very rough seas. Coastal communities are at risk, and anyone living in low-lying or flood-prone areas should remain on high alert. Landslides are also a concern in mountainous terrain across the region.
Central Luzon and Ilocos Region (including CALABARZON, MIMAROPA)
The southwest monsoon is the main weather driver for Central Luzon and surrounding areas today. PAGASA expects cloudy skies with rain, occasional heavy rain, and thunderstorms across this part of Luzon. Provinces in CALABARZON (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon) and MIMAROPA are included in the forecast coverage. Possible flash floods and landslides during heavy or prolonged rain periods are flagged as concerns for residents in these areas. Coastal waters remain moderate, but small boat operators should exercise caution.
Southern Luzon
Southern Luzon, also under the influence of the southwest monsoon, can expect similarly cloudy skies with rain and thunderstorms. Flash flooding in low-lying areas and landslides in mountainous zones remain real risks. Residents in Bicol and nearby provinces should monitor water levels in rivers and drainage systems throughout the day.
Visayas
The southwest monsoon extends its reach into the Visayas, where PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. While the rain may be less continuous than in Luzon, localized heavy downpours remain possible, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours when thunderstorm activity typically peaks. Residents in Western Visayas — which is more directly in the path of the southwest monsoon — may see more persistent rainfall than those in Eastern Visayas.
Mindanao
Mindanao is the least affected region in today's forecast. PAGASA describes conditions as partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. While the southwest monsoon and Typhoon Francisco are not directly impacting Mindanao, localized rain and lightning remain possible, particularly in the afternoon. Residents should still take routine precautions during thunderstorms.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Level Means for You
PAGASA's forecast includes important wind and coastal water advisories for today. Understanding what these mean in practical terms can help you make safer decisions. For a full guide to reading all of PAGASA's warning systems, see how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
Today's wind and coastal water conditions, as issued by PAGASA, break down as follows:
- Batanes and the Babuyan Islands: Strong to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas (waves of 2.5 to 4.0 meters or higher). This means large waves that can capsize small vessels. No fishing boats or small craft should be at sea in these waters. Even larger vessels should exercise extreme caution.
- Northern Luzon coastal waters: Moderate to strong winds from the southwest, with rough seas (waves of 1.5 to 4.0 meters). These are dangerous conditions for small boats and bancas. Fisherfolk are strongly advised to remain ashore.
- Central Luzon and other areas: Up to moderate winds from the southwest, with slight to moderate coastal waters. Small vessels should still exercise caution, especially if heading into open water.
- Mindanao: Light to moderate winds and slight to moderate coastal waters. Conditions are relatively calmer, but localized thunderstorms can generate sudden, dangerous squalls at sea.
"The center of Typhoon 'Francisco' (Mekhala) was estimated at 350 km East Northeast of Calayan, Cagayan or 278 km East of Basco, Batanes (20.3°N, 124.6°E) with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 190 km/h." — PAGASA, 4:00 AM bulletin, June 24, 2026
What It Means for You
Commuters
If you are commuting in Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, or the Visayas today, expect wet roads, reduced visibility during heavy downpours, and potential flooding in low-lying streets and underpasses. Build extra travel time into your schedule, particularly in the afternoon when thunderstorms are more likely to intensify. Avoid wading through floodwaters of unknown depth — even shallow-looking floods can be dangerous.
Fisherfolk and Small Boat Operators
Do not go to sea if you operate in waters around Batanes, the Babuyan Islands, or northern Luzon today. Waves of 1.5 to 4.0 meters — and potentially higher near the typhoon — are extremely hazardous for small craft. Those in central and southern Philippine waters should also think twice before heading out, as the southwest monsoon is generating rough conditions. Wait for PAGASA's all-clear before returning to sea.
Farmers
Continuous or heavy rain in Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and the Visayas today raises the risk of crop damage from flooding and waterlogging. Secure loose equipment and materials, and check on drainage in low-lying fields. Farmers near riverbanks should monitor water levels closely and be prepared to move livestock to higher ground if necessary.
Students and Parents
Parents in areas under heavy rain — particularly in Northern Luzon, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, and the Visayas — should monitor local government announcements regarding class suspensions. Schools in flood-prone areas may issue early dismissals if rain intensifies during the school day. Ensure children have appropriate rain gear and that you have a plan if school ends early.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery personnel, and others working outside in affected regions should be aware that thunderstorms bring lightning risk in addition to heavy rain. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure — not under trees or near metal poles — during lightning activity. In Northern Luzon, strong gusty winds pose an additional hazard for those working at height or operating equipment outdoors.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA's weather station data for Manila provides a reference point for conditions in the capital today. The minimum temperature recorded was 25.0°C at 4:00 AM, while minimum humidity was recorded at 2:00 PM. Sunrise was at 5:32 AM and sunset is at 6:32 PM, giving residents a full day of daylight during which weather conditions may shift. Moonrise was recorded at 4:47 AM.
Cloud cover and rain across Luzon and the Visayas will likely keep temperatures from climbing as high as they might on a clear day. However, humidity levels remain high across the country during the southwest monsoon season, which can make even moderate temperatures feel uncomfortable — particularly in areas experiencing only intermittent rain rather than steady downpours.
Bottom Line
Bottom line: Typhoon Francisco is close enough to Batanes to make northern Philippine waters extremely dangerous, and the southwest monsoon is bringing heavy rain and flood risk to much of Luzon and the Visayas today. If you are in Northern Luzon — especially Batanes and Cagayan — or at sea anywhere from the northern to central Philippines, stay ashore, stay indoors, and follow PAGASA's updates closely. Everyone else in Luzon and the Visayas should prepare for a rainy, flood-prone day and avoid unnecessary travel during heavy downpours.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.