MANILA, June 25, 2026 — Residents across much of Luzon and the Visayas should brace for a wet and potentially disruptive Wednesday as Severe Tropical Storm "FRANCISCO" energizes the Southwest Monsoon, pushing heavy rains and rough seas into densely populated parts of the country. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued its 24-hour weather forecast at 4:00 AM today, valid through 4:00 AM on Thursday, June 26, 2026.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
Two weather systems are shaping the national weather picture today, though the more immediate influence on everyday life is the Southwest Monsoon, known in Filipino as habagat. PAGASA confirmed that the habagat is actively affecting Luzon and Visayas today.
The habagat is the seasonal wind shift that brings moisture-laden air from the southwest during the wet season — roughly June through September. When a tropical cyclone is positioned to the north or northeast of the Philippines, as "FRANCISCO" is today, it can dramatically intensify the habagat by drawing stronger winds and more moisture across the western side of the country. This is why the rains today are widespread and sustained rather than just isolated afternoon showers.
At 3:00 AM today, Severe Tropical Storm "FRANCISCO" (international name: MEKKHALA) was estimated at 400 kilometers northeast of Itbayat, Batanes, with maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near its center and gusts of up to 125 km/h. The storm is moving north-northeastward at 15 km/h — tracking away from the Philippine landmass — and is currently outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). No tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised over any part of the country.
A second system, Tropical Storm HIGOS (2025), was located approximately 1,750 kilometers east of Central Luzon as of the same observation time, with maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h and gusts of up to 90 km/h, moving west-northwestward at 10 km/h. HIGOS also remains well outside PAR and is not directly affecting the country at this time, though PAGASA will continue monitoring its track.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
Batanes and Babuyan Islands will experience frequent to heavy rains with strong winds today, associated with the influence of Severe Tropical Storm "FRANCISCO." Residents in these northernmost islands — already among the most exposed to tropical weather — should remain indoors and avoid any unnecessary travel, particularly near shorelines.
Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Metro Manila, and CALABARZON are in for cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms, driven by the Southwest Monsoon. Mountain provinces in the Cordillera — including Benguet, Baguio City, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Kalinga, and Apayao — should also watch for localized heavy rainfall that could trigger flash floods and landslides on steep terrain.
The rest of Luzon and the Visayas will also see cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms. PAGASA notes that these rains may trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in low-lying and mountainous areas. Light to moderate winds will prevail across much of the area, with seas ranging from slight to moderate.
Visayas
The Visayas region falls under the same Southwest Monsoon influence affecting Luzon. Residents across the Eastern, Western, and Central Visayas should expect cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms throughout the day. The monsoon's reach means that rain is not limited to mountain areas — coastal and urban communities should also prepare for wet streets, reduced visibility, and potential flooding in low-lying barangays.
Mindanao
Mindanao enjoys a comparatively better weather outlook today. PAGASA forecasts partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms — the kind of typical afternoon convective activity common during the warm season. No widespread rain systems are targeting Mindanao at this time, though residents should still keep an eye on afternoon weather as localized storms can develop quickly, particularly in inland and elevated areas.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
Mariners and coastal communities should take careful note of sea conditions today, which PAGASA describes as follows:
- Northern and eastern sections of Northern Luzon: Winds are moderate to strong; seas are rough to very rough.
- Western and other coastal areas of Northern Luzon: Winds are moderate to strong; seas are slight to moderate.
- Visayas and eastern sections of Luzon: Winds are up to moderate; seas are slight to moderate.
- Mindanao: Light to moderate winds; seas are slight to moderate.
PAGASA has issued a gale warning for northern and eastern portions of Northern Luzon, meaning wind speeds in those waters are strong enough to pose a real danger to small and medium-sized watercraft. Fisherfolk, ferry operators, and small-boat owners in those waters should stay ashore until conditions improve.
Decoding the Warnings
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals have been raised over any part of the Philippines as of this bulletin — Severe Tropical Storm "FRANCISCO" is tracking away from the country and remains outside PAR. However, the active habagat and the storm's indirect influence are producing conditions that still demand caution.
The most immediate concern is the rough to very rough seas in northern and eastern waters of Luzon. "Rough" seas typically means wave heights of 2.5 to 4 meters — well beyond what bangka and small motorized boats can safely handle. "Very rough" pushes wave heights even higher, and conditions in those waters can change rapidly.
If PAGASA were to issue rainfall warnings — color-coded yellow, orange, or red — those would indicate escalating amounts of rainfall within a set timeframe, each level triggering different precautionary actions. For a plain-language breakdown of what each warning color and storm signal means and how to respond, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
The rains today, even without a formal color-coded rainfall warning in the forecast bulletin, are described as potentially triggering flash floods and landslides — language PAGASA uses specifically when rainfall intensity is sufficient to pose these hazards. Residents in flood-prone barangays and communities near hillsides or mountain slopes in Luzon and the Visayas should be on alert.
What It Means for You
Commuters (Metro Manila and Urban Luzon)
Metro Manila and CALABARZON commuters should expect wet, slow-moving conditions throughout the day. The Southwest Monsoon typically produces persistent, hours-long rainfall rather than short bursts — meaning streets may stay flooded for extended periods. Leave earlier than usual, keep rain gear on hand, and monitor local flooding alerts from your LGU. Expect delays on major thoroughfares and in low-lying areas prone to flash floods.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
This is the most critical group today. PAGASA's forecast of rough to very rough seas in the northern and eastern waters of Luzon, combined with the gale warning in those areas, means small vessels should remain docked. Seas of 2.5 meters or higher can capsize bangka and small motorized boats without warning. Even in other coastal areas where seas are described as slight to moderate, conditions can deteriorate quickly as the day progresses and monsoon winds strengthen.
Farmers
Widespread rains across Luzon and Visayas can be beneficial for crops, but the risk of flash flooding and landslides in agricultural upland areas is real. Farmers in Cordillera and other highland areas should avoid working on slopes during heavy rainfall. Those in low-lying irrigated areas should watch drainage levels and secure any equipment or harvest from possible flooding.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Classes in areas under heavy monsoon rains — particularly in Batanes, Ilocos, Metro Manila, and CALABARZON — may face disruptions depending on LGU decisions. Parents should monitor announcements from their local government units and school administrations. Children should not wade through floodwater, as depths can be deceptive and currents strong.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Sites
Workers in open-air or elevated settings across Luzon and the Visayas face heightened risk from strong winds and the possibility of lightning associated with thunderstorms. Employers are encouraged to implement weather-delay protocols during the heaviest rains, particularly in the morning hours when the habagat tends to be most active.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's observation data from its weather station in Science Garden, Quezon City, recorded the following conditions as reference points for today:
- Maximum temperature: 30.7°C (recorded at 2:00 PM)
- Minimum temperature: 25.8°C (recorded at 6:00 AM)
- Rainfall: 7.4 mm
- Relative humidity: 75% at 5:00 PM
The combination of high humidity and temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s means that even on a cloudy, rainy day, heat and humidity may feel oppressive during breaks in the rain, particularly in urban areas. Stay hydrated, wear breathable clothing, and seek shade or air-conditioned spaces where possible.
Sunrise, Sunset, and Moonrise
For planning outdoor activities, PAGASA notes the following for today, June 25, 2026, for Metro Manila:
- Sunrise: 5:30 AM
- Sunset: 6:28 PM
- Moonrise: 9:50 PM
Bottom Line
If you live in Luzon or the Visayas, treat today as a full wet-season rain day: stay off the water if you're a fisherfolk or boater in northern and eastern Luzon, monitor your local flood situation if you're in a low-lying area of Metro Manila or CALABARZON, and keep an eye on PAGASA and your LGU for any updated warnings as the habagat and the indirect influence of Severe Tropical Storm "FRANCISCO" continue to drive conditions today. Mindanao residents can expect a relatively normal day, but afternoon thunderstorms remain possible.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.