The Southwest Monsoon tightened its grip on the western portions of Northern Luzon on Thursday, June 11, 2026, bringing scattered rains, thunderstorms, and elevated risks of flash floods and landslides to Ilocos Norte, Batanes, and the Babuyan Islands, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). The rest of the country is not spared entirely, with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms possible from Metro Manila to Mindanao driven by localized weather systems.
PAGASA issued its 24-hour public weather forecast at 4:00 AM Thursday, valid through 4:00 AM on Friday, June 12, 2026. The bulletin covers weather conditions, wind and coastal water states, and temperature data recorded across the country.
National Weather Picture: Monsoon in the North, Scattered Showers Elsewhere
The dominant feature of Thursday's weather is the Southwest Monsoon — locally known as the habagat — which is directly affecting the western section of Northern Luzon. This seasonal wind system, which typically intensifies between June and September, is funneling warm, moisture-laden air from the West Philippine Sea into the northern reaches of the country.
While the heaviest impact is concentrated in the north, PAGASA notes that localized thunderstorms could develop virtually anywhere across the archipelago throughout the day. Residents from northern Luzon all the way to southern Mindanao should remain aware of rapidly changing weather conditions, particularly in the afternoon and early evening hours when thunderstorm activity typically peaks.
Luzon Forecast
Ilocos Norte, Batanes, and Babuyan Islands
Residents of Ilocos Norte, the province of Batanes, and the Babuyan Islands are under the most significant weather threat on Thursday. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms across these areas, a direct result of the Southwest Monsoon's influence on the western section of Northern Luzon.
The primary hazards identified by PAGASA are flash floods and landslides, driven by moderate to at times heavy rains that can accumulate rapidly over low-lying areas and steep terrain alike. Residents living near river systems, coastal areas, and hillside communities in these provinces should exercise heightened caution and heed any evacuation advisories issued by local government units.
Fisherfolk and small vessel operators in Northern Luzon waters are also advised to take note of deteriorating sea conditions. PAGASA reports moderate winds blowing from the south to southwest, generating wave heights of 1.2 to 2.5 meters in coastal waters off Northern Luzon — conditions that are generally considered rough for small fishing boats and bancas.
Metro Manila and the Rest of Luzon
Metro Manila and the remaining provinces of Luzon outside the Southwest Monsoon's direct path can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms on Thursday. These weather disturbances are caused by localized thunderstorm systems rather than the monsoon itself.
While conditions are generally less severe than in the far north, PAGASA cautions that flash floods and landslides remain possible during particularly intense thunderstorm episodes. Urban flooding can develop quickly in low-lying Metro Manila communities even from short but heavy downpours, and residents should avoid clogged esteros and flood-prone streets during rain events.
Winds across the rest of Luzon blow from the southeast to south at light to moderate intensity, with coastal waters registering slight to moderate swells at wave heights of 0.6 to 1.5 meters.
Visayas Forecast
The Visayas region falls under the same general forecast that covers the rest of the country outside of the immediate monsoon zone. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms are expected across the Eastern, Western, and Central Visayas, all attributed to localized thunderstorm activity.
As with the rest of the country outside Northern Luzon, PAGASA flags the possibility of flash floods or landslides in the event of severe thunderstorms. Residents in mountainous and coastal areas throughout the Visayas — including those in Samar, Leyte, and the Negros highlands — should remain alert to sudden weather changes. Winds and seas across the Visayas are light to moderate from the southeast to south, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.5 meters.
Mindanao Forecast
Mindanao is likewise covered by the general nationwide forecast of partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, driven by localized weather systems. The same flash flood and landslide warnings apply during periods of severe thunderstorm activity.
Mindanao's varied topography — from the highland ranges of Bukidnon and the Davao region to the low-lying coastal floodplains of Cotabato and Lanao — makes localized flooding a year-round concern, and Thursday's isolated thunderstorm potential should not be taken lightly. Winds and coastal waters around Mindanao mirror conditions in the rest of the country: light to moderate winds from the southeast to south, with seas running at slight to moderate levels of 0.6 to 1.5 meters.
Temperature Outlook
The latest temperature extremes recorded at PAGASA's official weather station at Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City — covering the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM on Wednesday, June 10 — logged a maximum temperature of 34.3°C at 1:00 PM and a minimum of 27.4°C at 5:00 AM. Relative humidity ranged from a high of 89 percent to a low of 49 percent over the same period.
These figures reflect typical Metro Manila conditions for early June — warm to hot during the afternoon hours, with overnight and early morning temperatures remaining humid and uncomfortable by temperate standards. Residents, especially children, the elderly, and outdoor workers, are advised to stay hydrated and limit prolonged sun exposure during peak afternoon hours.
Tidal and Astronomical Information for Metro Manila
For Thursday, June 11, PAGASA and the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) report the following tidal predictions for Manila Bay: high tide of 0.87 meters at 6:46 AM, low tide of 0.34 meters at 1:41 PM, high tide of 0.54 meters at 7:12 PM, and low tide of 0.39 meters at 11:45 PM.
Sunrise over Metro Manila is at 5:26 AM and sunset at 6:25 PM. The moon rises at 1:33 AM and sets at 2:24 PM, with a lunar illumination of 19 percent — a thin crescent that will provide minimal nighttime light.
Safety Reminders
PAGASA's forecast carries specific hazard flags for flash floods and landslides in Northern Luzon, and a general caution for the same hazards nationwide in the event of severe thunderstorms. Residents across the country are encouraged to take the following precautions:
In areas with forecast scattered rains and thunderstorms — particularly Ilocos Norte, Batanes, and the Babuyan Islands — avoid river crossings, do not shelter under trees during lightning, and stay away from slopes that may be susceptible to landslides during prolonged rainfall.
Across Metro Manila and the rest of the country, be prepared for sudden, heavy downpours that can trigger localized flooding even in areas that are not under formal weather warnings. Keep emergency contact numbers handy and follow updates from local disaster risk reduction and management offices.
Mariners and fisherfolk operating in Northern Luzon waters should exercise caution given moderate wave heights of up to 2.5 meters. Small vessels should consider delaying trips until conditions improve.
PAGASA's 24-hour public weather forecast was issued at 4:00 AM on Thursday, June 11, 2026, and is valid through 4:00 AM on Friday, June 12, 2026. Weather conditions can change rapidly — always check for updated bulletins before making travel or activity plans.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.