Manila, July 27, 2026 — The southwest monsoon is bearing down on large parts of Luzon this Monday, bringing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and the threat of flash floods and landslides to millions of Filipinos. Meanwhile, a tropical depression situated well outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) is reinforcing the monsoon's strength, making this one of the wetter days of the rainy season so far. The state weather bureau PAGASA issued this nationwide forecast at 4:00 AM today, July 27, 2026.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
The primary culprit is the southwest monsoon, called "habagat" in Filipino. Every year from roughly June through September, the habagat blows warm, moisture-laden air from the sea toward the western side of the Philippines. When this current hits land — especially over mountainous terrain in Luzon — it is forced upward, cools rapidly, and releases its moisture as heavy, persistent rain. This is why habagat years feel drenching and relentless rather than the quick, localized downpours Filipinos sometimes associate with fair-weather thunderstorms.
Adding to the situation today, PAGASA reports that a Tropical Depression (formerly "Aghon") is located approximately 975 kilometers west-northwest of extreme Northern Luzon as of 3:00 AM today. Its maximum sustained winds are 55 kilometers per hour near the center, with gusts of up to 70 km/h. The system is moving north-northwestward at 20 km/h and is currently outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). While it poses no direct landfall threat to the Philippines at this time, its presence in the vicinity is intensifying the southwest monsoon and pushing more moisture onto Luzon's western and northern coasts.
Region-by-Region Forecast: Where Will It Rain?
Luzon — Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds, Flash Flood Risk
Luzon bears the brunt of today's weather. PAGASA specifically singles out the following areas as expecting cloudy skies with scattered to at times widespread moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms, along with gusty winds:
- Ilocos Region
- Cagayan Valley
- Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR)
- Zambales
- Bataan
- Bulacan
- Nueva Ecija
- Laguna
- Quezon
These areas face the real risks of flash floods and landslides, according to PAGASA. Residents in low-lying communities near rivers, as well as those on hillsides or mountain slopes, should be on alert and follow the guidance of local disaster risk reduction offices.
The rest of Luzon — meaning Metro Manila and all other provinces not named above — will see partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies, with isolated thunderstorms possible, particularly during the afternoon and evening. While flash flood risk is lower in these areas, residents should still be cautious during any heavy downpour, as urban flooding can develop quickly in Metro Manila and other dense urban centers.
In terms of wind and sea conditions off Luzon's coasts, PAGASA forecasts southwest to west winds at moderate to near gale strength, with coastal waters ranging from moderate to rough and wave heights reaching moderate levels. These are hazardous conditions for small watercraft.
Visayas — Isolated Thunderstorms, Generally Manageable
The Visayas will have a relatively calmer day compared to Luzon, but the region is not entirely clear. PAGASA forecasts partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms across the Visayas, caused by localized thunderstorm activity. Flash floods and landslides remain possible in areas where thunderstorms do develop, so residents should remain watchful.
Winds over the Visayas will blow from the south to southwest at light to moderate speeds, and coastal waters will be slight to moderate. Conditions are generally safer for maritime travel than off Luzon, but small boat operators should still exercise caution.
Mindanao — Isolated Thunderstorms, Similar Pattern to Visayas
Mindanao mirrors the Visayas in today's forecast. Residents across the island group can expect partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms, also driven by localized convective activity. As with the Visayas, there remains the risk of flash floods and landslides where thunderstorms develop — a reminder that even "isolated" weather events can be intense when they do occur.
Winds over the Bays and Mindanao will come from the south to southwest at light to moderate strength, with coastal waters rated as slight to moderate.
Decoding the Warnings: What Do These Conditions Actually Mean?
PAGASA's forecast highlights several conditions that carry specific implications for safety. Understanding what each one means is critical — not just for those directly in the path of rain, but for anyone making decisions about travel, work, or school today.
The forecast for the named Luzon provinces describes scattered to at times widespread moderate to heavy rain. In practical terms, "moderate to heavy" rainfall means rain intense enough to reduce visibility, cause rivers to rise quickly, and trigger flash floods in low-lying areas or areas with poor drainage. The explicit mention of flash flood and landslide risk by PAGASA means that those in vulnerable areas — riverbanks, mountain slopes, coastal flood plains — should not wait for the water to rise before evacuating if authorities call for it.
The coastal water conditions described as "moderate to rough" off Luzon represent sea states that are genuinely dangerous for small watercraft. "Near gale" winds — which PAGASA reports for the coastal waters of Luzon — are strong enough to capsize small fishing vessels and bancas. Fisherfolk and boat operators are strongly advised to stay ashore. For a full breakdown of how PAGASA classifies rainfall warnings, storm signals, and sea condition categories, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What It Means for You
Commuters in Metro Manila and Urban Luzon
Even in areas of Luzon not named in the heaviest-rain advisory, isolated but intense thunderstorms can develop during the afternoon rush hour. Expect traffic disruptions, street flooding in low-lying urban areas, and reduced visibility. Leave earlier than usual if possible, keep an umbrella handy, and avoid flood-prone underpasses and roads. Check local government advisories for road closures before heading out.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
PAGASA is clear: coastal waters off Luzon are moderate to rough, with near-gale winds. Small sea craft — including fishing boats and passenger bancas — should not venture into open waters off Luzon today. Even in Visayas and Mindanao, where conditions are described as slight to moderate, operators of small vessels should check conditions locally before departure and be prepared to turn back quickly if seas deteriorate.
Farmers and Agricultural Workers
The heavy monsoon rain affecting the Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, CAR, and several Central Luzon provinces can be both a boon and a threat to agriculture. While the rain provides much-needed irrigation relief in some areas, the risk of flash floods poses a serious danger to low-lying farms, particularly rice paddies near river systems. Farmers in named areas should monitor drainage conditions and secure livestock and equipment if flooding appears imminent.
Students, Parents, and School Administrators
In the provinces most heavily affected — Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, CAR, and the named Central Luzon provinces — local government units may issue class suspensions or shifts to remote learning if flooding or extreme rainfall develops. Parents should check with their local government's social media accounts or text alerts early in the morning. Even in Metro Manila, afternoon thunderstorms can make school dismissal hours hazardous; arrange pickup or shelter-in-place plans in advance.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Teams
Workers at outdoor sites in Luzon — particularly in areas with heavy rain and gusty wind warnings — should monitor conditions carefully throughout the day. Gusty winds associated with the southwest monsoon can make crane and scaffolding operations hazardous. Supervisors should have clear protocols for suspending outdoor work when lightning or strong gusts are detected nearby.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA's observation data from the 24-hour period ending yesterday afternoon provides a snapshot of recent conditions. The maximum temperature recorded was 34.4°C at 2:00 PM, while the minimum temperature dipped to 25.4°C at 5:00 AM. Relative humidity peaked at 95% at 5:00 AM and fell to its lowest point of 61% at 2:00 PM.
Today, with widespread cloud cover and active rainfall across much of Luzon, temperatures are likely to feel cooler than recent days — but the high humidity will make any warm, rain-free windows feel oppressively muggy. Residents in areas experiencing heavy rain should be mindful of the risks of flooding rather than heat today, though outdoor workers in drier pockets of Mindanao and Visayas should still stay well-hydrated.
Astronomical and Tidal Information
For reference, PAGASA also reports the following tidal and astronomical data for Manila: High tide is expected at 6:45 AM and again in the evening, while low tide falls at midday. Sunrise is at approximately 5:35 AM and sunset at around 6:25 PM. The moon is at 98% illumination — nearly full — which may contribute to slightly elevated tidal ranges today. Residents in coastal areas of Metro Manila and nearby provinces should factor this in alongside the heavy rain forecast, as high tides combined with intense rainfall can worsen urban flooding along coastal streets and esteros.
Bottom line: If you are in Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, CAR, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Laguna, or Quezon today — Monday, July 27 — prepare for heavy, persistent rain with a real risk of flash floods and landslides. Do not cross flooded roads or waterways, stay off the water if you operate a small vessel along Luzon's coasts, and follow your local government's advisories. Even in Metro Manila and other parts of Luzon not under the heaviest warnings, pack an umbrella and allow extra time for your commute. The single most important thing you can do today: do not attempt to cross flooded roads or rivers, no matter how shallow they appear.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph