MANILA, July 25 — Two major weather systems are simultaneously affecting the entire Philippine archipelago on Saturday, July 25, according to a forecast issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) at 4:00 AM today, valid until 4:00 AM on Sunday, July 26.
Typhoon Kiyapo — known internationally as Noul — is battering Northern Luzon with dangerous winds and intense rainfall, while the southwest monsoon, locally called habagat, is spreading heavy rain and thunderstorms across Central and Southern Luzon, Metro Manila, the Visayas, and Mindanao. No part of the country is spared from the effects of these two systems today.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
Two distinct but simultaneous weather drivers are at work across the Philippines today.
The first is Typhoon Kiyapo (Noul), currently positioned approximately 310 kilometers west of Basco, Batanes. As of 3:50 AM today, it was packing maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h and gusts reaching up to 150 km/h, moving west-northwestward at 25 km/h. A typhoon is a powerful tropical cyclone that draws enormous amounts of moisture from the ocean and releases it as torrential rain, while its rotating winds extend dangerous conditions well beyond the storm's center — which is why Northern Luzon is experiencing heavy to intense rainfall and destructive gusts even as the storm tracks away from the immediate coastline.
The second system is the southwest monsoon (habagat) — the seasonal wind flow from the southwest that typically dominates Philippine weather from June through September. When amplified by a nearby typhoon, the habagat draws in additional moisture and produces significantly heavier rainfall across western-facing coasts and surrounding areas. Today, that amplification is evident: the habagat is generating widespread rain, cloud clusters, and thunderstorms from Zambales and Bataan all the way down to Mindanao.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Northern Luzon — Directly in Typhoon Kiyapo's Reach
Residents of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan, and the Batanes group of islands should expect the most severe weather today. PAGASA forecasts heavy rainfall with intense rain at times, combined with strong and gusty winds brought directly by Typhoon Kiyapo. Flash floods and landslides are possible in these provinces. Residents in low-lying and mountainous areas must remain on high alert and heed any evacuation orders from local government units.
Central Luzon and Surrounding Provinces
Zambales, Bataan, and Quezon province — including areas in the Central Luzon region — are under the combined influence of Typhoon Kiyapo and the southwest monsoon. PAGASA warns of heavy rainfall in these areas, with conditions capable of triggering flash floods and landslides. Gusty winds will also be felt across these provinces.
The Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) and the rest of the Cagayan Valley region can expect cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms throughout the day. Landslides remain a risk in the steep, mountainous terrain of the Cordillera, and residents in highland communities are urged to take precautions.
Metro Manila and Southern Luzon
Metro Manila, along with the rest of Luzon not specifically mentioned above, will experience cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms driven by the southwest monsoon. While conditions here are less extreme than in Northern Luzon, flash floods are possible in low-lying and flood-prone areas — particularly in urban districts where drainage systems may be overwhelmed by sudden, heavy downpours.
Visayas
The entire Visayas region will see cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and thunderstorms due to the southwest monsoon. Flash floods and landslides are possible from moderate to heavy rainfall. Coastal communities and island provinces should also note that coastal waters are rough, with the sea surface wind direction coming from the southwest.
Mindanao
Most of Mindanao — including Zamboanga Peninsula and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) — will experience cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms caused by the southwest monsoon. Flash floods or landslides are possible due to moderate to heavy rainfall in these areas. The rest of Mindanao may see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and gusty winds, with localized flooding remaining a concern.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Level Means
PAGASA has flagged the risk of flash floods and landslides across multiple regions today, a consequence of rainfall that ranges from moderate to intense depending on location. Understanding what these risks mean in practice can help you and your family prepare. For a full breakdown of how warning levels are classified, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
In practical terms: the flash flood and landslide risk cited for Northern Luzon today reflects the most dangerous rainfall category — intense rain from the typhoon that can rapidly overwhelm rivers, creek systems, and hillside soils. For Central Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, the risk is categorized as moderate to heavy rainfall — still capable of causing flooding and slope failures, especially over extended periods.
PAGASA also warns of gale-force winds in the areas most directly affected by Typhoon Kiyapo. Gale-force winds are sustained winds powerful enough to make outdoor movement dangerous and capable of causing structural damage to light materials. Anyone in the typhoon's direct path in Northern Luzon should treat gale warnings as a signal to stay indoors and away from windows.
Coastal Water Conditions
Sea conditions today are rough or at best moderate across nearly all Philippine waters:
- Visayas and Southern Luzon coasts: Light to moderate winds from the southwest; seas described as rough — meaning wave heights are dangerously elevated for small vessels.
- Mindanao coasts: Slight to moderate winds from the southwest; coastal waters are moderate.
- The rest of Luzon (including Northern Luzon areas near the typhoon): Slight to moderate winds from varying directions; coastal waters are light to moderate, though localized conditions near Typhoon Kiyapo may be significantly worse.
- Pacific-facing areas: Slight to moderate winds; light to moderate coastal waters.
PAGASA strongly advises all fisherfolk and boat operators to stay ashore until conditions improve, particularly along Luzon's western and northern coasts and throughout Visayas waters.
What It Means for You
Commuters
Expect flooded roads, reduced visibility, and traffic disruptions across Metro Manila and other major urban centers in Luzon and Visayas today. Leave earlier than usual, avoid low-lying underpasses and flood-prone streets, and monitor real-time flood advisories from your local DRRMO. If you are in Ilocos Norte, Cagayan, or Batanes, seriously consider postponing non-essential travel — gale-force winds and intense rain make road conditions extremely hazardous.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Do not go out to sea today. PAGASA's coastal water forecast shows rough seas along Visayas and Southern Luzon coasts, and typhoon conditions remain dangerous near Northern Luzon. Even in areas with "moderate" sea conditions, sudden squalls driven by the monsoon can capsize small vessels without warning. Stay ashore until PAGASA issues an all-clear.
Farmers
Farmers across Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao should secure crops, equipment, and livestock ahead of today's rains. The combination of typhoon-driven rainfall in the north and monsoon rain elsewhere poses a significant risk of crop damage, field flooding, and soil erosion. Farmers in the Cordillera and other highland areas should be particularly alert to landslide risk on farm slopes.
Students, Parents, and School Officials
Classes may be suspended in several provinces today — particularly in Northern Luzon where the typhoon's effects are most severe. Parents and students should monitor announcements from their local government units and school officials before traveling. Even in Metro Manila and Visayas cities, heavy downpours and flooding may prompt suspension orders. Do not wait until the last minute to check.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Sites
Working outdoors today — especially in Northern Luzon, along coastal areas, and on elevated terrain — carries heightened risk. Gusty winds, lightning from thunderstorms, and the potential for flash floods or landslides make outdoor work dangerous across most of the country. Employers should assess risk before requiring workers to report to outdoor sites.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA's observation data recorded a minimum temperature of 25.6°C at 2:00 AM and noted peak humidity of 94% at 2:00 PM in Metro Manila. With widespread cloud cover and active rainfall today, temperatures across the country are expected to remain on the cooler side compared to recent dry-weather days. However, in areas of Mindanao that remain partly cloudy and drier, localized heat and humidity may still be felt during midday hours.
Bottom Line
Bottom line: Whether you are in typhoon-hit Northern Luzon or in the monsoon-soaked south, today is not a day for unnecessary outdoor activity. The single most important thing you can do right now is check your local government's emergency alerts, know your evacuation route if you live near a river, creek, or hillside, and stay indoors if your area is under any flood or landslide warning. Conditions will continue to change — keep your radio or phone updated throughout the day.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.