QUEZON CITY — Sunday, July 26, 2026 — Much of the Philippines will experience rainy and unsettled weather today as the southwest monsoon — the seasonal wind system known locally as habagat — continues to drench Luzon and spill into the western edge of the Visayas. The state weather bureau, PAGASA, issued its 4:00 AM forecast valid until 4:00 AM Monday, painting a wet picture for millions of Filipinos and urging vigilance particularly in flood- and landslide-prone communities.
In the background, Typhoon Noul (international designation 2612) is churning well outside Philippine territory — but its presence is being monitored closely. No wind signals have been raised anywhere in the country.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
The primary force behind today's widespread rains is the southwest monsoon, or habagat. This is a large-scale seasonal wind system that blows warm, moisture-laden air from the southwest across the Philippine archipelago during the wet season, typically from June to September. When it is active, it continuously funnels heavy rainfall into exposed western-facing coasts and mountains — which is exactly what is happening today across western and central Luzon and parts of western Visayas.
Separately, Typhoon Noul is located 745 kilometers west-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes — firmly outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). As of 3:00 AM today, it carries maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h near its center and gusts reaching up to 195 km/h, moving northwestward at 20 km/h. While Noul poses no direct wind threat to any part of the country at this time, a nearby typhoon positioned to the northwest can act as an additional "pump," enhancing the flow of the southwest monsoon and intensifying the rains it delivers to western Luzon. PAGASA is tracking Noul's movement.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
Pangasinan and Zambales are under the direct influence of the southwest monsoon and will experience occasional rains throughout the day. Rainfall is expected to be moderate to heavy at times, raising the risk of flash floods and landslides — particularly in low-lying coastal areas and hilly or mountainous terrain. Residents in vulnerable barangays should stay alert for advisories from local disaster risk reduction offices.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon — encompassing the National Capital Region and all other provinces not specifically named — will see cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms. The southwest monsoon is responsible, and rainfall intensity could reach moderate to at times heavy levels. Flash floods and landslides remain possible hazards. Commuters and outdoor workers in the capital region should be prepared for disruptions throughout the day.
Visayas
Aklan and Antique, situated along the western edge of the Visayas and therefore exposed to the southwest monsoon's reach, will share in the cloudy, rainy conditions affecting Luzon. Scattered rains and thunderstorms are expected, with moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall posing risks of flash floods and landslides in affected communities.
The rest of the Visayas — including the Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, and other western Visayas provinces not specifically named — will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. These will be driven primarily by localized thunderstorm activity. While conditions are generally less severe than in monsoon-exposed areas, severe thunderstorms in any of these areas can still produce flash floods and landslides.
Mindanao
Mindanao will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, similarly caused by localized thunderstorm activity. While no large-scale weather system is directly affecting the island group today, communities in areas prone to flooding and landslides — especially in mountainous provinces — should remain cautious during any severe thunderstorm episodes.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Hazard Means for You
PAGASA has not raised any tropical cyclone wind signals anywhere in the Philippines as of this bulletin, as Typhoon Noul remains outside PAR. However, several important weather hazards are flagged for today.
Flash flood and landslide risk (Pangasinan, Zambales, Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Aklan, Antique): This is not a casual advisory. Flash floods can occur with little warning and develop rapidly in low-lying and riverside communities. Landslides are a serious threat on slopes and hillsides when ground becomes saturated with heavy rain. If you live in a danger zone and your local government issues an evacuation order, heed it immediately.
Thunderstorm hazard (nationwide): Severe thunderstorms bring not only heavy rain but also dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, and the potential for flash flooding even in areas where the overall forecast appears mild. Stay indoors during thunderstorms and avoid open fields, tall trees, and metal structures.
Not sure what different warning levels from PAGASA mean in practice? Read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings for a plain-language breakdown of rainfall color codes, tropical cyclone wind signals, and more.
Wind and Coastal Waters: A Concern for Seafarers
Wind and sea conditions today vary by area, and PAGASA is advising caution on the water — particularly in northern Luzon.
Extreme Northern Luzon (including Batanes and the Babuyan Islands) will face moderate winds blowing from the south to southeast, generating moderate wave heights of 1.5 to 2.1 meters. These are elevated sea conditions that small and wooden-hulled vessels will find difficult and potentially dangerous to navigate.
The rest of Luzon's coastal waters will see light to moderate winds from the southwest to south, with wave heights ranging from slight to moderate — 0.6 to 2.1 meters. Conditions are variable and can deteriorate quickly under southwest monsoon surges.
Visayas and Mindanao coastal waters will have light to moderate winds from the southeast to southwest, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.8 meters — generally slight to moderate. While conditions are less severe than in northern Luzon, small boat operators should exercise caution.
What Today's Forecast Means for You
Commuters (Metro Manila and Luzon): Expect rain throughout the day, with the possibility of heavy downpours at any time. Roads may flood, particularly in low-lying areas and underpasses. Leave earlier than usual, allow extra travel time, and avoid flood-prone routes. Keep an umbrella or rainwear on hand at all times.
Fisherfolk and small boat operators: Coastal waters around northern Luzon are rough today, with waves reaching up to 2.1 meters. PAGASA urges mariners and fisherfolk in these areas to take precautions. Those operating small, motorized, or wooden-hulled vessels are advised to carefully assess conditions before heading out. In the rest of Luzon and across the Visayas and Mindanao, conditions are less severe but remain variable — stay within safe distance of shore.
Farmers: The sustained southwest monsoon rains are a double-edged sword — beneficial for crop irrigation but dangerous for low-lying agricultural land prone to flooding and inundation. Farmers in Pangasinan, Zambales, Aklan, and Antique should monitor water levels in fields and drainage channels. Avoid field work during periods of heavy rain.
Students, parents, and school administrators: With scattered to occasional rains and thunderstorm activity forecast across Luzon and parts of Visayas, parents should prepare children with proper rain gear and stay informed about any school suspension announcements from local government units. Class suspensions in the Philippines are declared by LGUs — monitor your city or municipal government's official channels.
Outdoor workers and construction personnel: Working outdoors during heavy rain and thunderstorms carries serious risks — including lightning strikes, slippery surfaces, and flash flooding at work sites. Supervisors should implement safety protocols during heavy rain events and suspend operations in exposed areas when severe thunderstorms develop.
Temperature and Humidity
For reference, PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 31.2°C at 11:00 AM yesterday and a minimum of 26.0°C at 5:00 AM yesterday. Relative humidity peaked at 94% at 5:00 AM and dipped to 65% at 11:00 AM. The high humidity across the metro area is consistent with active monsoon conditions and will make the heat feel more oppressive during any brief dry spells today. Stay hydrated and rest in cool, shaded areas when possible.
Sunrise, Sunset, and the Moon
Sunrise in Metro Manila today is at 5:38 AM, with sunset at 6:27 PM. The moon rose yesterday at 3:59 PM and set at 2:27 AM. Lunar illumination is at 91% — meaning tonight's moon is nearly full and would normally provide good nighttime visibility, though cloud cover from the monsoon may obscure it for much of the country.
Bottom line: Widespread rains and thunderstorms driven by the southwest monsoon will make this Sunday wet and hazardous across Luzon and parts of the Visayas. Flash floods and landslides are the primary threats today — especially in Pangasinan, Zambales, Metro Manila, Aklan, and Antique. Stay indoors during severe thunderstorms, avoid flood-prone areas, and heed any evacuation orders from your local government. Fisherfolk in northern Luzon waters should stay close to shore.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.