MANILA, June 23, 2026 — Two simultaneous weather threats are bearing down on the Philippines this Tuesday: Super Typhoon Francisco is barreling westward toward Northern Luzon from the Pacific, while the Southwest Monsoon continues to pound Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao with heavy, potentially dangerous rainfall. PAGASA issued its forecast at 4:00 AM today, valid until 4:00 AM on Wednesday, June 24, 2026.
The combination of an approaching super typhoon and an active monsoon season means that virtually no part of the country is entirely unaffected today. Whether you are in the typhoon's projected path in the north or living under persistent monsoon rains in the south, this is a day to stay informed and take precautions.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
Super Typhoon Francisco (Mekkhala) is the dominant system to watch. As of 3:00 AM today, its center was estimated at 420 km east of Aparri, Cagayan, at coordinates 18.5°N, 125.6°E. It carries maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center and gusts of up to 230 km/h. It is moving west-northwestward at a relatively slow 10 km/h. A super typhoon is the most intense category of tropical cyclone — its sustained winds are powerful enough to cause catastrophic structural damage. Although Francisco has not yet entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as of 5:00 AM today, its west-northwestward track points directly toward Northern Luzon, and its proximity means conditions can change rapidly.
The Southwest Monsoon — locally called habagat — is separately affecting Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao. The habagat is a seasonal wind pattern that draws warm, moisture-laden air from the southwest across the archipelago during the mid-year months. When it is active, it can produce continuous, widespread rainfall that is less dramatic than a typhoon but equally capable of triggering floods and landslides, especially over areas that have already received significant rain in recent days.
Additionally, PAGASA notes a Tropical Depression located 2,680 km east of Southeastern Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h. While it remains very far from the country at this time, it is being monitored for any potential development.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Northern Luzon
This is the region that faces the most serious immediate concern. With Super Typhoon Francisco positioned 420 km east of Aparri, Cagayan, and tracking west-northwestward, Northern Luzon — including Cagayan, the Ilocos Region, and the Cordillera Administrative Region — is in the typhoon's anticipated path. PAGASA's forecast indicates that sections of Northern Luzon can expect moderate to strong westerly winds and rough to very rough seas, with wave heights of 1.2 to 3.7 meters over coastal areas. Residents, local government units, and emergency managers in this region should be on heightened alert and begin preparation and preemptive actions as Francisco's track and intensity are confirmed in succeeding bulletins.
MIMAROPA and Southern Luzon
MIMAROPA (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan) is forecast to experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms driven by the Southwest Monsoon. PAGASA warns of possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to heavy rainfall over this region. Residents in flood-prone and mountainous communities should remain vigilant. Coastal waters in the area face light to moderate westerly winds with wave heights of 0.8 to 2.5 meters.
Metro Manila and Nearby Provinces
Metro Manila and surrounding areas (referred to as the Metro area in PAGASA's forecast) can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers, also attributable to the Southwest Monsoon's influence. Commuters and residents should be prepared for intermittent rain throughout the day, particularly in the afternoon and evening when convective activity tends to peak.
Visayas
The Southwest Monsoon is actively affecting the entire Visayas region, bringing cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms. The risk of flash floods and landslides is present, particularly in areas with steep terrain or along river systems. Residents in Eastern, Western, and Central Visayas should monitor local advisories closely and avoid unnecessary travel to flood-prone areas during periods of heavy rain.
Mindanao
Mindanao is likewise under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon, with cloudy skies and scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms expected. As with the Visayas, the risk of localized flash flooding and landslides is real for communities in low-lying and mountainous areas. Residents in vulnerable barangays are advised to coordinate with their local disaster risk reduction and management offices.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Advisory Means
Understanding the warnings PAGASA issues can save lives. Here is what the active advisories in today's forecast mean in plain terms — and what you should do:
Super Typhoon (Francisco/Mekkhala) — Outside PAR: Francisco has not yet entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility, which means PAGASA has not yet raised Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals over any province as of this bulletin. However, "outside PAR" does not mean "no threat." The typhoon's west-northwestward movement and current track toward Northern Luzon means wind signals could be raised in the coming hours or days. This is the time to prepare — not to wait. Secure your home, prepare emergency kits, and identify evacuation routes now, especially if you are in Cagayan, Isabela, the Ilocos provinces, or the Cordillera.
Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) Rainfall: For Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, the monsoon is producing conditions that PAGASA associates with the risk of flash floods and landslides. If your community receives continuous heavy rain for an extended period, treat this as a serious warning sign. Do not wait for water to rise before evacuating. To better understand how PAGASA categorizes rainfall warnings and what each color level means, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
Rough Seas Advisory — Northern Luzon Coasts: Wave heights of 1.2 to 3.7 meters are forecast over the seaboards of Northern Luzon. These are rough to very rough sea conditions. Small fishing boats and outrigger vessels (bangka) should not venture out. Larger vessels should exercise extreme caution and consult the Philippine Coast Guard before sailing.
Moderate Seas — MIMAROPA Coasts: Wave heights of 0.8 to 2.5 meters are forecast for waters around MIMAROPA. These conditions are manageable for larger vessels but risky for small craft. Fisherfolk in this region are advised to stay close to shore or remain in port.
What This Means for You
Commuters
If you are commuting in Metro Manila or elsewhere in Southern Luzon, prepare for intermittent rain throughout the day. Bring a raincoat or umbrella and allow extra travel time, as even moderate rainfall can cause significant flooding and traffic disruptions in urban areas. In Northern Luzon, monitor local government announcements — class suspensions and evacuation orders may be issued as Francisco approaches.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
This is not a safe day to be at sea along the Northern Luzon coastline. Wave heights of up to 3.7 meters can capsize small and medium-sized vessels. In MIMAROPA, conditions are better but still demand caution. All fisherfolk are strongly urged to listen to PAGASA's latest coastal and marine advisories before departing. The approach of a super typhoon can cause sea conditions to deteriorate rapidly and with little warning.
Farmers
Farmers in Visayas and Mindanao should secure harvests and equipment, as the sustained rainfall brought by the habagat can damage crops and erode soil on slopes. In Northern Luzon, preparations should go beyond crops — ensure that livestock are moved to higher ground if your area is prone to flooding as Francisco draws closer.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents and students in Northern Luzon should keep a close eye on announcements from local government units and the Department of Education regarding class suspensions. With a super typhoon approaching, school administrators in affected provinces may issue preventive suspensions even before wind signals are officially raised. In the Visayas and Mindanao, expect wet and rainy conditions during school hours; waterproofing school bags and wearing appropriate clothing is advisable.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Sites
Workers in exposed outdoor environments — including construction, agriculture, and utilities — across Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao should be cautious of lightning from thunderstorms, which often accompany monsoon-driven rain. In Northern Luzon, site managers should consider suspending elevated or open-air work as the super typhoon approaches and wind conditions deteriorate.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA's data from the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) weather station, recorded at 5:00 AM today, reports a temperature of 25.3°C as the minimum recorded at that hour, with relative humidity at 92% minimum recorded at 2:00 PM. These readings reflect the warm, humid conditions typical of monsoon season in Metro Manila. While these figures are specific to the NAIA observation point, they are broadly representative of the warm, sticky, rain-intermittent conditions expected across lowland areas of the Philippines today.
Bottom Line
Bottom line: The single most important thing you should do today is prepare for Super Typhoon Francisco if you are in Northern Luzon — secure your home, ready your emergency kit, and identify your evacuation route now, before wind signals are raised. If you are in Southern Luzon, the Visayas, or Mindanao, the Southwest Monsoon demands equal respect: stay away from flood-prone and landslide-prone areas, and do not cross swollen rivers or flooded roads under any circumstances.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph. The next bulletin will be issued as conditions develop, and wind signal updates for Northern Luzon are expected as Francisco's track is confirmed.