QUEZON CITY, July 28, 2026 — The southwest monsoon is making its presence felt forcefully across the western half of Luzon on Tuesday, bringing heavy, persistent rains and raising the threat of flash floods and landslides for millions of Filipinos in the affected provinces. PAGASA issued its 4:00 AM forecast bulletin covering conditions through 4:00 AM on Wednesday, July 29, painting a picture of a country divided — soggy and storm-threatened on the west, and significantly drier but still watchful on the east and south.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
The main engine behind today's rough conditions in Luzon is the southwest monsoon, known locally as habagat. This is the seasonal wind system that blows in from the southwest — off the South China Sea — carrying large amounts of moisture picked up over open water. When this moist air hits the western-facing slopes and coasts of Luzon, it is forced upward, cools rapidly, and releases that moisture as heavy and prolonged rainfall. The habagat is a normal feature of the Philippine wet season from roughly June through September, but it can bring dangerous conditions when it intensifies.
Separately, the easterlies — steady winds blowing in from the Pacific Ocean to the east — are responsible for the wet conditions affecting parts of the Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Region. These winds carry Pacific moisture onto the eastern coastlines of the country, generating their own episodes of rain and thunderstorms.
For the rest of the country, localized thunderstorms — weather systems that develop from intense daytime heating of the land surface rather than from a large-scale wind pattern — are the main cause of any isolated showers or afternoon storms.
Region-by-Region Forecast: Luzon
The heaviest weather in the country today is concentrated along the western side of Luzon. PAGASA specifically names Ilocos Region and Zambales — along with nearby areas — as facing cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms due to the southwest monsoon. The agency has flagged the risk of flash floods and landslides in these areas. Residents in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, and Zambales should be on high alert, particularly those living near rivers, drainage channels, and steep slopes.
Further south in Central and Southern Luzon, a broader swath of provinces faces a milder but still real threat. Pampanga, Tarlac, Bulacan, Cavite, Batangas, Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, and Oriental Mindoro can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. PAGASA attributes these conditions to the southwest monsoon as well and notes the possibility of flash floods or landslides during episodes of severe thunderstorms. Metro Manila, while not individually called out in the source data, falls within the same general forecast zone for the rest of the country — expect partly cloudy skies with the chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, particularly in the afternoon.
Region-by-Region Forecast: Visayas
Eastern Visayas is the primary area of concern in the Visayas today. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms for this region, driven by the easterlies coming off the Pacific. Flash floods and landslides are listed as potential hazards. Residents of Samar, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, and Biliran should take this forecast seriously, particularly those in mountainous or low-lying flood-prone communities.
The rest of the Visayas — including the Western Visayas and Central Visayas regions — falls under the general forecast for the rest of the country: partly cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, with possible flash floods or landslides during severe events triggered by localized systems.
Region-by-Region Forecast: Mindanao
In Mindanao, Caraga and Davao Region share the wet forecast with Eastern Visayas, both experiencing scattered rains and thunderstorms due to the easterlies, with flash flood and landslide risks flagged by PAGASA. The rest of Mindanao — including the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, SOCCSKSARGEN, BARMM, and the Bangsamoro region — falls under the general nationwide forecast of partly cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
Decoding the Warnings: What PAGASA Is Telling You
PAGASA's July 28 bulletin does not raise any tropical cyclone wind signals, but it does flag specific hazard risks — flash floods and landslides — that readers should treat as serious operational warnings, not background noise.
A flash flood warning means that rainfall may be heavy enough and rapid enough to cause sudden rises in water levels in rivers, creeks, and drainage systems with little or no advance notice. Unlike regular flooding, which builds slowly, flash floods can arrive within minutes of intense rainfall. The advice is simple: do not wait for floodwaters to reach your doorstep before evacuating. Know your evacuation route now.
A landslide risk warning means that saturated soils on hillsides or mountainsides may become unstable and slide. This risk is elevated in areas that have already received significant rainfall over previous days — which, given the southwest monsoon's persistence, is very likely in Ilocos and Zambales. If you live near a steep slope, a cliff, or a mountain community, do not wait for visible warning signs. Pre-emptive evacuation, guided by your local government, is always the safer choice.
For a complete plain-language guide on how to interpret PAGASA's full suite of alerts, see how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
Coastal Waters and Wind Conditions
PAGASA's wind and coastal water forecast draws a clear dividing line across the country. The western section of Luzon — the area directly absorbing the southwest monsoon — will experience moderate to strong winds, and coastal waters there are forecast to be rough. This is a direct and serious warning for fisherfolk and boat operators along the western Luzon coast, from Ilocos down through Zambales and Bataan: do not venture out to sea today.
For the rest of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, winds will be light to moderate with coastal waters described as slight to moderate — manageable for larger vessels but still warranting caution for small bancas and fishing boats, particularly in areas where afternoon thunderstorms may develop rapidly and unexpectedly.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's station data from the previous 24-hour period at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) weather station recorded a maximum temperature of 32°C at 2:00 PM and a minimum of 25.8°C at 5:00 AM. Relative humidity ranged from a minimum of 63% at 2:00 PM to higher levels overnight and in the morning. While no heat index alert is active in today's bulletin, the combination of warmth and humidity during any break in cloud cover during midday and early afternoon can still make conditions feel oppressive. Stay hydrated, and if you are working outdoors, seek shade during the hottest part of the day.
What It Means for You
Commuters
If you are commuting in Ilocos, Zambales, or Eastern Visayas, expect possible road flooding and reduced visibility due to heavy rain and thunderstorms. Leave earlier than usual, and avoid roads that cross rivers or low-lying areas prone to flash flooding. In Metro Manila and the rest of the country, watch for the usual afternoon thunderstorm disruptions — bring an umbrella and allow extra travel time from around noon onward.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Western Luzon coastal waters are rough today — PAGASA's forecast makes this a no-sail advisory in practical terms for small and medium-sized fishing vessels along the Ilocos and Zambales coastline. Even in areas with moderate seas, the rapid development of afternoon thunderstorms can turn a manageable situation dangerous very quickly. Check conditions carefully before heading out, and always have a plan to return to port.
Farmers
Heavy rains in Ilocos and Zambales could cause runoff that damages crops and carries away topsoil. Secure loose materials and check drainage around fields. In drier parts of the country, the isolated afternoon showers may actually be welcome, but beware of localized flooding in low-lying agricultural land during intense thunderstorms.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Schools in Ilocos Region, Zambales, Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Region should monitor their local government announcements closely. While PAGASA has not issued a suspension signal, the combination of scattered thunderstorms, flash flood risk, and landslide warnings in those areas means conditions could deteriorate quickly. Parents should monitor official local government and DepEd announcements throughout the morning.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery personnel, and others working outdoors in the heavily affected areas should have clear protocols for pausing work when lightning and heavy rain occur. In all areas, do not work near rivers, drainage canals, or hillsides during rain. Lightning is a real risk during thunderstorm episodes, and no job is worth the danger of being caught outdoors in an active storm.
Bottom line: The southwest monsoon is the dominant story across the Philippines on July 28, 2026. If you are in western Luzon — particularly Ilocos Region and Zambales — treat today's forecast as a serious flash flood and landslide alert: know your evacuation route, stay away from rivers and slopes during heavy rain, and keep small boats ashore. The rest of the country should prepare for the possibility of afternoon thunderstorms and carry an umbrella wherever you go.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.