QUEZON CITY — Sunday, October 25, 2026: Millions of Filipinos from Palawan to Surigao face an unsettled Sunday as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) drives scattered rains, thunderstorms, and the threat of flash floods and landslides across wide swaths of the southern and central Philippines. The state weather bureau PAGASA issued its 24-hour public weather forecast at 4:00 AM on Sunday, valid until 4:00 AM on Monday, October 26.
While the heaviest weather is concentrated in Visayas, Mindanao, the Bicol Region, Romblon, and Palawan, no part of the country is entirely dry today. Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will also see periods of cloudiness and the chance of isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms driven by localized convection — a reminder that even areas outside the main rain belt should stay weather-aware throughout the day.
What Is the ITCZ and Why Is It Raining?
The Intertropical Convergence Zone — commonly called the ITCZ — is a broad band of rising warm, moist air that forms near the equator where the trade winds from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres meet. When air masses converge, they are forced upward, cooling as they rise and releasing their moisture as clouds, rain, and thunderstorms. Because the ITCZ is currently positioned to affect Palawan, the Visayas, and Mindanao, these regions are receiving the most persistent and widespread rain today. The ITCZ does not produce a single storm but rather an extended zone of unsettled, often heavy weather that can linger over an area for hours.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
Metro Manila and most of Luzon will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms on Sunday. PAGASA attributes these episodes to localized thunderstorms rather than the ITCZ itself, meaning rain will tend to be patchy and short-lived — but can still be intense when it occurs. Flash floods and landslides are possible during severe thunderstorms, so residents in low-lying and mountainous areas should remain alert even if the morning starts dry.
The notable exception within Luzon's broader weather picture is the Bicol Region and Romblon, both of which fall directly under the ITCZ's influence today. These provinces can expect cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms — the same unsettled pattern affecting the Visayas — along with the associated risk of flash floods and landslides from moderate to at times heavy rainfall.
Extreme Northern Luzon — the northernmost tip of the country, including areas such as the Batanes group of islands and the northernmost sections of Cagayan — faces moderate winds blowing from the northeast, with coastal waters described as moderate to rough, with wave heights of 1.5 to 2.5 meters. This is the roughest sea condition in the country today.
For Central Luzon, the eastern section of Southern Luzon, and the rest of Northern Luzon, winds are light to moderate, blowing from the southeast to northeast, with coastal waters in a slight to moderate state and wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters.
Visayas
The entire Visayas region is placed under the ITCZ's direct influence, making Sunday one of the wetter days across the island group. Residents in Eastern Visayas, Western Visayas, and Central Visayas should all prepare for cloudy skies, scattered rains, and thunderstorms that can produce moderate to at times heavy rainfall. PAGASA explicitly flags the risk of flash floods and landslides throughout the region.
Along the eastern sections of the Visayas, winds are light to moderate, blowing from the northeast to northwest, and coastal waters are slight to moderate with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters. Fisherfolk and small vessel operators working these waters should monitor conditions closely, as wave heights at the higher end of that range can be hazardous for smaller craft.
Mindanao
Like the Visayas, Mindanao falls squarely within the ITCZ's rain band. Cloudy skies, scattered rains, and thunderstorms are forecast island-wide, with moderate to at times heavy rainfall raising the risk of flash floods and landslides — particularly in mountainous and riverine communities across the island. Residents in flood-prone barangays and communities near slopes and riverbanks should be prepared to move quickly if rainfall intensifies.
The eastern sections of Mindanao share the same coastal water conditions as the eastern Visayas — light to moderate winds blowing from the northeast to northwest, and slight to moderate seas with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters. The rest of Mindanao's coastal waters are also slight to moderate, with light to moderate winds coming from the southwest to northwest.
Palawan
Palawan, including both the main island and the outlying island groups, is also under the ITCZ today. Expect cloudy skies, scattered rains, and thunderstorms with the same flash flood and landslide hazard applicable to the rest of the ITCZ-affected zone. Coastal conditions around Palawan fall under the "rest of the country" category — light to moderate winds from the southwest to northwest, and slight to moderate seas with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters.
Understanding Today's Hazard Warnings
PAGASA has not raised any tropical cyclone wind signals for Sunday, October 25, 2026. However, the forecast explicitly flags the risk of flash floods and landslides as hazards associated with the ITCZ-driven moderate to heavy rainfall over Visayas, Mindanao, Bicol, Romblon, and Palawan — and separately, as hazards tied to severe thunderstorms in Metro Manila and the rest of the country.
Flash floods can develop rapidly — within minutes to a few hours — whenever rainfall is heavy and sustained, especially in areas with poor drainage, narrow river channels, or steep terrain. Landslides are a companion hazard wherever saturated soil on slopes becomes unstable. Neither requires a typhoon to be deadly: intense rain from a thunderstorm or a stationary ITCZ can be enough. For a clear guide on how PAGASA classifies and communicates different levels of weather risk, see this explainer on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
For coastal waters, PAGASA rates Extreme Northern Luzon as moderate to rough today — the highest sea-state classification in today's forecast. Waves of 1.5 to 2.5 meters can easily swamp or capsize small, open fishing boats and bancas. The rest of the country's coastal waters are rated slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters — manageable for larger vessels but still worthy of caution for small craft, especially at the upper end of that range.
What Today's Weather Means for You
Commuters
In Metro Manila and Luzon cities outside the ITCZ belt, expect rain to come and go in bursts rather than all-day downpours — but those bursts can be sudden and heavy. Allow extra travel time, watch for flooded underpasses and streets, and keep an umbrella or rain gear within reach. In ITCZ-affected areas such as Bicol, the Visayas, Mindanao, and Palawan, treat the entire day as a rainy day: avoid unnecessary travel if rainfall intensifies significantly in your area, and stay away from flooded roads and swollen waterways.
Fisherfolk and Small Boat Operators
Those operating off Extreme Northern Luzon — including the Batanes and northernmost Cagayan coasts — should seriously consider staying ashore today. Moderate to rough seas with wave heights of 1.5 to 2.5 meters pose a genuine hazard to small and medium-sized vessels. Fisherfolk in the Visayas, Mindanao, and Palawan should also exercise caution: slight to moderate seas reaching up to 2.1 meters, combined with ITCZ-driven rain squalls and thunderstorms, can create unpredictable conditions at sea. Always file a trip report and monitor PAGASA marine bulletins before departing.
Farmers
Farmers across the Visayas, Mindanao, Bicol, Romblon, and Palawan should secure farm equipment, protect harvested crops from moisture damage, and watch for potential flooding in low-lying agricultural fields. In areas prone to soil erosion or landslides, check slopes and drainage channels before the heaviest rains arrive. Farmers in Luzon outside the ITCZ zone should still monitor conditions, as localized thunderstorms can bring brief but intense downpours.
Students, Parents, and Schools
No class suspensions have been announced based on PAGASA's forecast data alone — those decisions rest with local government officials. However, parents in Visayas, Mindanao, Bicol, Romblon, and Palawan should monitor local government announcements throughout the morning, as the ITCZ-driven rain and landslide risk may prompt local school administrators or LGUs to act if conditions deteriorate. Prepare alternative arrangements and keep children away from flooded streets and drainage channels.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery personnel, outdoor market vendors, and others who work outside in ITCZ-affected regions face the greatest exposure today. If thunderstorms develop — identified by rapidly darkening skies, increasing winds, and distant rumbling — seek sturdy shelter immediately and avoid open fields, tall trees, metal structures, and bodies of water. In Luzon's non-ITCZ areas, the same rule applies during any localized thunderstorm: seek shelter quickly and wait until lightning and thunder have stopped for at least 30 minutes before resuming outdoor activity.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
For reference, PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 30.9°C at 2:00 PM and a minimum of 26.0°C at 5:00 AM during the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM yesterday. Relative humidity ranged from a high of 86% at 5:00 AM to a low of 64% at 11:00 AM. The humidity levels recorded suggest a warm and muggy feel throughout much of the day in Metro Manila, even during drier spells.
In ITCZ-affected areas, cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures somewhat moderated, but the high humidity associated with the convergence zone means the air will feel heavy and uncomfortable even without direct sunshine.
Astronomical and Tidal Notes for Metro Manila
Sunday, October 25, 2026 brings a nearly full moon over Metro Manila, with moonrise at 4:41 PM and moonset at 4:38 AM, and lunar illumination at 99%. Sunrise is at 5:49 AM and sunset at 5:31 PM. Tidal predictions for Manila Bay (courtesy of NAMRIA) show a low tide of 0.15 meters at 3:17 AM, a high of 0.70 meters at 9:45 AM, a low of 0.30 meters at 3:05 PM, and a high of 0.87 meters at 9:24 PM. Near-full-moon conditions can contribute to slightly elevated coastal water levels, which is worth noting for low-lying coastal communities in Manila Bay already dealing with rain-related runoff.
Bottom Line
If you are in the Visayas, Mindanao, Bicol, Romblon, or Palawan today, treat this Sunday as a high-rain-risk day: stay informed, keep away from riverbanks and slopes during heavy rain, and be ready to move to higher ground quickly if flooding threatens. For everyone else, watch the sky — even where conditions are otherwise partly cloudy, a sudden severe thunderstorm can bring flash flooding with little warning. No part of the Philippines is completely clear of weather risk on October 25, 2026.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.