QUEZON CITY, October 26, 2026 — Western Mindanao is bearing the brunt of unsettled weather this Monday as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) pushes scattered rains and thunderstorms across Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occidental, Basilan, and Tawi-Tawi, according to the state weather bureau PAGASA. The rest of the Philippines, meanwhile, is not entirely in the clear — localized thunderstorms remain possible across Metro Manila and virtually every other province in the country through 4:00 AM Tuesday, October 27.
PAGASA issued the 24-hour public weather forecast at 4:00 AM Monday, October 26, 2026, warning that moderate to at times heavy rains in the ITCZ-affected areas could trigger flash floods and landslides. Even where the ITCZ is not the direct driver, the potential for severe localized thunderstorms means no part of the country should dismiss the risk of sudden flooding entirely.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
The primary weather system named in today's PAGASA forecast is the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ. In plain terms, the ITCZ is a belt near the equator where warm, moisture-laden air masses from the northern and southern hemispheres meet and rise — and as that moist air rises and cools, it releases energy in the form of heavy rain and thunderstorms. The ITCZ is currently positioned over the western section of Mindanao, making that part of the country the focal point of today's most significant weather.
Across the northern tip of the country — specifically Batanes and the Babuyan Islands — a northeasterly windflow is the controlling influence, producing partly cloudy to cloudy skies with only isolated light rains and no significant hazard expected from that system alone.
For Metro Manila and all remaining areas not directly under the ITCZ, localized thunderstorms are the key concern. These are weather cells that build up due to daytime heating and atmospheric instability rather than a large organized weather system. They can develop quickly, produce intense rainfall in a short period, and dissipate just as rapidly — but when severe, they are capable of causing flash flooding.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
Batanes and the Babuyan Islands — the northernmost islands of the Philippines — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. PAGASA attributes this to the northeasterly windflow. No significant hazard is flagged for this area beyond the general possibility of occasional light showers.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driven by localized convection. While conditions across most of Luzon will not be as consistently wet as western Mindanao, PAGASA cautions that flash floods or landslides remain possible during any severe thunderstorm episode. Residents should be especially mindful of sudden heavy downpours during afternoon hours, when localized thunderstorms tend to be most active.
Visayas
The Visayas falls under the same general forecast as Metro Manila and the rest of the country: partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms due to localized convection. Flash floods or landslides are possible if a thunderstorm episode becomes severe. No ITCZ influence is specifically mentioned for the Visayas in today's PAGASA bulletin.
Mindanao
Western Mindanao is today's most weather-affected area. Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occidental, Basilan, and Tawi-Tawi are placed under the direct influence of the ITCZ, with PAGASA forecasting cloudy skies, scattered rains, and thunderstorms. The agency specifically flags the risk of flash floods and landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rains in these areas.
The remaining provinces and areas of Mindanao not listed above fall under the general nationwide forecast — partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms from localized convection, with flash flood and landslide risks during severe thunderstorm episodes.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
PAGASA's wind and coastal water forecast divides the country into two zones for Monday:
Batanes and Babuyan Islands (Extreme Northern Luzon): Winds are moderate in intensity, coming from the northeast. Coastal waters are rated moderate, with wave heights of 1.5 to 2.5 meters. These are not benign sea conditions for small vessels.
The rest of the country: Winds are light to moderate, also from the northeast. Coastal waters are rated slight to moderate, with wave heights ranging from 0.6 to 2.1 meters. While the lower end of this range is manageable, the upper end — approaching 2.1 meters — warrants caution for small boats and fishing craft.
Decoding Today's Hazard Warnings
PAGASA's forecast for today does not include an active tropical cyclone wind signal or a color-coded rainfall warning as of the 4:00 AM bulletin. However, the agency has explicitly flagged two hazard types that residents should understand:
Flash floods are rapid, sudden flooding events that can occur with little to no warning — often within minutes of intense rainfall. They are particularly dangerous in low-lying areas, near rivers and streams, and in urban areas with limited drainage capacity. If heavy rain begins suddenly in your area, move to higher ground immediately and do not attempt to wade or drive through floodwaters.
Landslides are a risk in areas with steep slopes, particularly those already saturated from previous rains. Residents near mountainous terrain and hillside communities in western Mindanao should be especially alert today. Heed any evacuation advisories from local government units.
For a full explanation of PAGASA's warning systems — including what rainfall color codes, tropical cyclone wind signals, and heat index categories mean in practice — read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What Today's Forecast Means for You
Commuters
Whether you are in Metro Manila, the Visayas, or Mindanao, be prepared for the possibility of sudden, heavy rainshowers at any point during the day — particularly in the afternoon and early evening when localized thunderstorms are most likely to develop. Carry rain gear, allow extra travel time, and avoid underpasses or low-lying roads if heavy rain begins. In Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occidental, Basilan, and Tawi-Tawi, commuters should be especially alert to flash flood warnings and avoid flood-prone routes.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Coastal waters around Batanes and the Babuyan Islands are rated moderate, with waves reaching 1.5 to 2.5 meters — conditions that are hazardous for small and bancas-type fishing vessels. Across the rest of the country, slight to moderate seas with waves up to 2.1 meters at the higher end also call for caution. Small-boat operators are advised to assess sea conditions carefully before heading out and to take note of any advisories from the Philippine Coast Guard.
Farmers
Farmers in western Mindanao — particularly in Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occidental, Basilan, and Tawi-Tawi — should prepare for moderate to at times heavy rainfall today. Secure equipment and harvested crops from potential flooding. Elsewhere, the risk of isolated but potentially severe thunderstorms means farmers should monitor conditions and avoid fieldwork during active thunderstorm periods.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents and school administrators in ITCZ-affected areas of western Mindanao should monitor local government announcements regarding class suspensions. Elsewhere, while widespread suspension is not indicated by today's forecast, isolated severe thunderstorms could still prompt localized suspensions — stay updated through official LGU and DepEd channels.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery personnel, utility workers, and others who work outdoors should plan their activities around the likelihood of afternoon thunderstorms. Seek shelter immediately if thunder is heard or lightning is observed — do not wait for rainfall to intensify before taking cover.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's data from its weather station at Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City, recorded a maximum temperature of 32.7°C at 2:00 PM yesterday and a minimum temperature of 25.6°C at 5:00 AM yesterday, with relative humidity reaching a high of 90% and a low of 54%. These figures represent observed conditions at that station for the 24-hour period ending 8:00 PM yesterday and provide a general reference for Metro Manila's recent thermal conditions.
With partly cloudy to cloudy skies forecast for Monday and the possibility of rain, temperatures in Metro Manila and across much of the country may feel somewhat tempered — though humidity can keep the heat index elevated, particularly before any afternoon showers arrive.
Astronomical and Tidal Notes
For Metro Manila on Monday, October 26, 2026, sunrise is at 5:50 AM and sunset at 5:30 PM. The moon is at 100% illumination — a full moon — with moonrise at 5:26 PM and moonset at 5:35 AM. Tidal predictions for Manila Bay (courtesy of NAMRIA) show a low tide of 0 meters at 4:12 AM, a high of 0.61 meters at 10:45 AM, a low of 0.37 meters at 3:05 PM, and a high of 1.01 meters at 9:45 PM.
Bottom Line
If you are in Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occidental, Basilan, or Tawi-Tawi, treat today as a high-alert day: scattered rains and thunderstorms from the ITCZ can bring moderate to heavy downpours capable of triggering flash floods and landslides — stay away from flood-prone and landslide-prone areas and follow your local government's guidance. Everywhere else in the Philippines, a localized thunderstorm can still develop without much warning this Monday, so keep rain gear ready and have a plan if severe weather suddenly strikes your area.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.