QUEZON CITY — The southwest monsoon is bearing down on much of Luzon on Monday, July 13, 2026, bringing scattered rains, thunderstorms, and a real risk of flash floods and landslides to Metro Manila and several western and central provinces. PAGASA issued this forecast at 4:00 AM today, valid through 4:00 AM on Tuesday, July 14.
Residents across the country — from commuters navigating flooded underpasses in the capital to farmers tending crops in the Ilocos Region and fisherfolk along the western seaboard — need to take today's weather seriously. While Visayas and Mindanao face a lesser but still meaningful threat from localized thunderstorms, the heaviest and most widespread impact is concentrated in western and central Luzon.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
Today's rain and wind are being produced by the southwest monsoon, known in Filipino as the habagat. According to PAGASA's synopsis, the southwest monsoon is directly affecting Luzon. The habagat is a seasonal wind system that blows moisture-laden air from the South China Sea and the West Philippine Sea onto the western side of the country — typically from June through September. When it is active and strong, as it is today, it delivers persistent and at times heavy rainfall to exposed western-facing areas, pushing clouds inland and fueling thunderstorm development. It is the single most important weather driver in the Philippines during the wet season.
Luzon: Where the Rain Is Heaviest
Metro Manila and Western Luzon Provinces
PAGASA expects cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms across a wide swath of Luzon today. The areas directly in the path of the heaviest weather include:
- Metro Manila
- Ilocos Region
- Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR)
- Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan
- Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal
- Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro
- Palawan
The hazard associated with this forecast is significant: PAGASA warns of possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to heavy rains. In areas like the Cordillera and the Mindoro provinces — where mountainous terrain amplifies rainfall runoff — the landslide risk is especially worth watching. In Metro Manila and low-lying provinces like Pampanga and Bulacan, flash flooding is the primary concern.
The Rest of Luzon
Provinces in Luzon not listed above will still feel the monsoon's influence, though less severely. PAGASA forecasts partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms for the rest of Luzon, also caused by the southwest monsoon. The risk of flash floods or landslides remains, but only during episodes of severe thunderstorms rather than from sustained heavy rainfall.
Visayas and Mindanao: Localized Thunderstorms Possible
The southwest monsoon's direct reach does not extend to the Visayas and Mindanao today. However, PAGASA forecasts partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms in both island groups, driven this time by localized thunderstorm activity — weather that develops from local heat and atmospheric instability rather than a large-scale monsoon flow.
Localized thunderstorms can be intense and fast-moving even if they are not as widespread as monsoon-driven rain. PAGASA notes that flash floods or landslides are possible during severe thunderstorm episodes in Visayas and Mindanao. Residents in hilly or low-lying areas of these regions should remain alert, especially in the afternoon when thunderstorm activity typically peaks.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
The monsoon is also stirring up the seas around Luzon. PAGASA reports the following wind and wave conditions for today:
- Luzon: Moderate to strong winds blowing from the southwest to south; coastal waters are moderate to rough, with wave heights of 1.5 to 3.1 meters.
- Visayas and Mindanao: Light to moderate winds from the southeast to south; coastal waters are slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters.
Seas off Luzon are particularly dangerous for small watercraft. Waves reaching 3.1 meters — roughly the height of a single-story ceiling — can easily capsize a small fishing boat or bangka.
Decoding the Warnings: What These Hazards Actually Mean
PAGASA has flagged the risk of flash floods and landslides for all regions of the country today. This is not a routine notice. Flash floods can develop within minutes of heavy rainfall in low-lying and riverside communities, giving residents little time to react. Landslides threaten communities on or near hillsides and mountain slopes, particularly in areas where the ground is already saturated from previous rains.
There are no tropical cyclone wind signals in effect as of this forecast. However, the monsoon-driven scattered rains over Luzon and rough seas off its coasts warrant serious attention. If you want to understand exactly how PAGASA classifies and communicates weather hazards — including what rainfall color-coded warnings and storm signals mean — read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
The key action for any flash flood or landslide warning is the same: avoid rivers, creeks, drainage channels, and slopes. If your community is in a known flood- or landslide-prone area, do not wait for water to rise before moving to higher ground.
What This Means for You
Commuters in Metro Manila and Luzon
Expect rain at multiple points throughout the day, not just in the afternoon. Scattered rains and thunderstorms can hit without much warning. Leave earlier than usual, carry rain gear, and anticipate traffic slowdowns from flooded intersections. Avoid walking through floodwaters of unknown depth — just 15 centimeters of fast-moving water can knock a person off their feet.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Do not take small boats or bangkas out into Luzon's coastal waters today. Waves of 1.5 to 3.1 meters in Luzon seas are classified as moderate to rough — conditions that PAGASA consistently flags as dangerous for small vessels. Even fisherfolk in Visayas and Mindanao should exercise caution, as waves of up to 2.1 meters can develop in those waters. Stay ashore, secure your vessels, and wait for PAGASA to issue a safer forecast.
Farmers
Monsoon rains can be a double-edged sword for agriculture. While the moisture benefits crops in some areas, today's moderate to heavy rains in western and central Luzon pose a risk of waterlogging and crop damage, particularly for lowland rice farms in Pampanga, Bulacan, and other rice-growing plains. Farmers in Cordillera and hilly parts of the Ilocos Region should also watch for soil erosion and landslide risk on slopes. Secure farm equipment and check drainage channels around your fields.
Students and Parents
Parents with children attending school in Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and other affected provinces should monitor local government announcements about class suspensions. Scattered rains and thunderstorms can worsen quickly. Dress children in waterproof gear, and if flooding is occurring near your school route, prioritize safety over attendance. Local government units — not PAGASA — make class suspension calls, so check your LGU's official social media pages.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Crews
Workers on outdoor construction sites, in agriculture, or in any elevated or exposed location face elevated risk today. Thunderstorms bring the additional hazard of lightning. If you hear thunder, stop outdoor work and seek sturdy shelter immediately. Do not shelter under trees or in open structures. Resume work only after the storm has clearly passed.
Temperature Outlook for Metro Manila
PAGASA recorded the following temperature and humidity figures at its Science Garden weather station in Diliman, Quezon City, for the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM yesterday, July 12:
- Maximum temperature: 29.4°C (recorded at 2:00 PM)
- Minimum temperature: 25.9°C (recorded at 2:00 AM)
- Maximum relative humidity: 91%
- Minimum relative humidity: 79%
With humidity levels well above 79% and temperatures in the upper 20s, the air will feel heavy and sticky throughout the day. Despite the cloud cover and rain, the combination of heat and high humidity means outdoor physical activity remains tiring. Drink water regularly, especially if you are working or moving around outdoors between rain spells.
Tidal and Astronomical Information for Metro Manila
For reference, PAGASA — courtesy of NAMRIA — provides the following tidal predictions for Manila Bay today, July 13:
- High tide: 1.48 meters at 8:01 AM
- Low tide: -0.18 meters at 5:13 PM
Sunrise in Metro Manila is at 5:34 AM and sunset at 6:30 PM. The moon is at just 2% illumination tonight, meaning very little natural light after dark — an additional reason for coastal communities and fisherfolk to exercise caution on the water overnight.
Bottom line: The southwest monsoon is making today a genuinely hazardous weather day for Metro Manila and much of western and central Luzon. Flash floods and landslides are the primary dangers. Stay off Luzon's rough seas, avoid flood-prone areas, and keep a close eye on PAGASA updates throughout the day — conditions can change quickly when the habagat is active.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.