MANILA, July 12, 2026 — The southwest monsoon is sweeping across Luzon and Visayas this Sunday, bringing with it a sustained stretch of wet, windy, and potentially dangerous weather for millions of Filipinos. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued its 4:00 AM bulletin for July 12, 2026, valid through 4:00 AM of July 13, warning that heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and very rough seas are expected to persist across much of the country's northern and central island groups throughout the day.
Mindanao, shielded somewhat from the direct pull of the monsoon, will see lighter but still unsettled conditions, with localized thunderstorms capable of producing moderate rainfall in isolated areas.
What Is Driving This Weather?
The culprit is the southwest monsoon, known in Filipino as "habagat." This is a seasonal wind system that blows from the southwest — from the direction of the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea — and carries with it large amounts of moisture gathered over open water. When that moisture-laden air reaches land and rises over terrain, it releases that water content as rain. During the middle months of the year, habagat is one of the Philippines' dominant weather drivers, and when it strengthens or interacts with other systems, it can produce prolonged heavy rainfall that affects large parts of Luzon and the Visayas simultaneously. According to PAGASA's July 12 bulletin, the southwest monsoon is the primary system shaping conditions across these two island groups today.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
Much of Luzon is in for a wet Sunday. PAGASA's bulletin identifies several sub-areas across the island group with varying intensities of rainfall, all attributed to the southwest monsoon.
Occidental Mindoro can expect occasional rains throughout the day, with the monsoon capable of producing moderate to heavy downpours at times. Residents in low-lying and flood-prone areas should remain alert to sudden changes in rainfall intensity.
Palawan and western Luzon — the portions of the main island that directly face the South China Sea and bear the brunt of the habagat — are under a forecast of moderate to heavy rains and thunderstorms. These areas see some of the most direct monsoon exposure, and flooding and landslides are a real concern in vulnerable localities.
The Cagayan Valley region in northeastern Luzon is also in the path of monsoon-influenced weather, with moderate rains and possible thunderstorms forecast for the period.
The rest of Luzon should expect overcast skies, intermittent rain, and gusty wind conditions as the monsoon's reach extends across the island group.
Visayas
The Visayas is also directly affected by the southwest monsoon, with the entire island group under a forecast of moderate rains, occasional heavy rainfall, and thunderstorms for July 12. Coastal communities across the Visayas — particularly those facing western and northern exposures — will feel the combined effect of rain and rough seas. Residents in flood-prone and low-lying coastal areas are advised to stay informed and prepared throughout the day.
Mindanao
Mindanao tells a different story. According to PAGASA, the large southern island group will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated showers and thunderstorms driven by localized thunderstorm activity — a separate, internally generated weather mechanism rather than a large-scale monsoon push. While conditions are generally lighter than those in Luzon and Visayas, the potential for isolated but intense downpours remains, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours when thunderstorm activity typically peaks. Residents should not be complacent, especially those in areas with known flooding or landslide susceptibility.
Decoding the Warnings: What Rough Seas Actually Mean
One of the most significant and immediate dangers on July 12 comes not from the rain itself but from the state of the country's coastal waters. PAGASA's bulletin paints a serious picture for mariners and fisherfolk across all three island groups — but especially in the north and west.
Northern Luzon: Seas are forecast to be very rough, with wave heights reaching 2.5 to 4.5 meters. To put that in perspective, waves of this height — roughly equivalent to the height of a one-and-a-half to two-storey building — are extremely hazardous for any small vessel. Winds in this area are described as strong and blowing from the southwest.
Visayas and western coasts: Conditions are forecast to be rough, with wave heights of 1.2 to 3.5 meters and moderate to strong southwest winds. These are still dangerous conditions for small boats and even some medium-sized vessels.
Mindanao's coastal waters: The forecast calls for near rough to moderate seas, with wave heights of 1.2 to 2.1 meters and moderate south winds. While comparatively calmer than northern and western waters, these conditions still warrant caution for small craft operators.
If you are a fisherfolk or a small-boat operator, PAGASA's sea state data makes the message clear: avoid venturing out, especially off the northern and western coasts of the country. For a full explanation of how PAGASA issues and categorizes its weather warnings, see our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What It Means for You
Commuters
If you are commuting in Metro Manila or other major urban centers in Luzon and Visayas on Sunday, July 12, expect wet roads, reduced visibility during heavy rain bursts, and possible flooding in low-lying streets and underpasses. Allow extra travel time, particularly in the afternoon when rain tends to intensify. Keep rain gear handy and avoid crossing flooded roads on foot or by vehicle — floodwater depth is rarely what it appears to be.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
This is the group facing the highest immediate risk today. Very rough seas off northern Luzon, with waves up to 4.5 meters, make it extremely dangerous to be out on the water. PAGASA data strongly advises small vessels to remain in port for the entirety of July 12, particularly off the western and northern coasts of Luzon and the western coasts of the Visayas. Do not attempt to cross open water in these conditions.
Farmers
Farmers in Luzon and Visayas should secure or harvest any crops that may be vulnerable to wind damage or waterlogging from sustained heavy rainfall. Those in upland or hillside areas should also monitor for signs of soil saturation, which can precede landslides. In Mindanao, the isolated nature of expected thunderstorms still warrants securing farm equipment and watching drainage conditions.
Students, Parents, and Schools
With the southwest monsoon expected to persist through Sunday and into Monday morning, parents and students should check class suspension announcements from local government units — particularly in Luzon and Visayas provinces directly under the monsoon's path. Government agencies and local disaster risk reduction offices typically issue suspension orders based on local ground conditions, so monitor official local announcements in addition to PAGASA's national forecast.
Outdoor and Construction Workers
Those working outdoors in affected areas — particularly in western and central Luzon and across the Visayas — should be aware that sustained gusty winds accompanying the monsoon can pose risks for those working at heights or with lightweight materials. If conditions worsen significantly, supervisors should evaluate whether outdoor work can safely continue.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA's data from yesterday's observations in Metro Manila provides a reference point for expected conditions: the maximum temperature recorded was 28.7°C at 2:00 PM, and the minimum was 25.6°C at 6:30 AM. Relative humidity ranged from a minimum of 78% at 2:00 PM to a maximum of 68% at 6:00 AM — readings that reflect the moist, cloud-covered conditions that characterize southwest monsoon days in the capital. Metro Manila residents can expect similar or slightly cooler, more overcast conditions on July 12 given the continuing monsoon influence.
It is worth noting that despite the rain, high humidity can still make conditions feel uncomfortable and warm. Stay hydrated and allow your body to acclimatize, particularly if you are spending extended time outdoors between rain showers.
Bottom Line
Bottom line: The southwest monsoon is making July 12 a genuinely hazardous day for coastal travel and outdoor activity across Luzon and Visayas. The single most important thing you should do today is keep all small boats and watercraft off the water — seas are very rough off northern Luzon with waves up to 4.5 meters, and rough across the western Visayas. On land, avoid flooded roads and low-lying areas, prepare for intermittent heavy rain, and stay updated through official channels.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.