Saturday, July 11, 2026 — Millions of Filipinos across the archipelago woke up to unsettled weather this morning as Typhoon Inday (international name: Bavi) churns northeast of the country and the southwest monsoon, known locally as "habagat," continues to drench large portions of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. According to the 4:00 AM weather forecast issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the combined influence of these two weather systems is producing conditions ranging from stormy in the far north to scattered rainshowers across much of the country.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
Two distinct weather systems are at work today. The first is Typhoon Inday (Bavi), whose center was located approximately 1,490 kilometers northeast of Itbayat, Batanes at 3:00 AM this morning. The typhoon is carrying maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h near its center and gusts reaching up to 170 km/h, and it is moving northwestward at 20 km/h. While the typhoon's center remains far from the Philippine landmass, its outer rain bands and the winds it generates are directly affecting the northernmost province of Batanes and are enhancing rain over Cagayan Valley.
The second system is the southwest monsoon — a seasonal wind pattern that blows from the southwest, drawing warm, moisture-laden air from the sea over the western side of the Philippine landmass. When the habagat is active, it reliably produces heavy rainfall on the western-facing slopes of Luzon and Visayas. Today, PAGASA says the southwest monsoon is affecting Central and Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao — meaning a large swath of the country is simultaneously dealing with monsoon-driven rainfall even as the typhoon dominates conditions in the north.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
Batanes is forecast to experience stormy conditions today, directly caused by Typhoon Inday. Residents and local authorities are warned of threats to life and property from gale-force winds. Flash floods and landslides are a serious hazard given the anticipated moderate to heavy rainfall.
Cagayan can expect rains with gusty winds, also attributed to Typhoon Inday's influence. Flash floods and landslides remain possible, and residents should exercise caution near rivers, creeks, and hillside areas. The threat to life and property from strong winds is classified as minimal to minor, but should not be taken lightly.
Metro Manila, MIMAROPA, La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, and Batangas — along with Western Visayas and the Negros Island Region — are forecast to experience occasional rains driven by the southwest monsoon. Flash floods and landslides remain possible wherever rainfall becomes moderate to heavy. Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes should remain alert.
The rest of the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and Mountain Province are under the combined influence of Typhoon Inday and the southwest monsoon, with cloudy skies and scattered to moderate rains expected. The hazard profile here includes possible flash floods and landslides from moderate to heavy rainfall, as well as threats to life and property from strong winds.
The rest of Luzon — areas not specifically named above — is forecast to have cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers or thunderstorms, driven by the southwest monsoon. Flash floods and landslides due to moderate to heavy rains remain a possibility.
Visayas
Western Visayas and the Negros Island Region fall under the southwest monsoon's influence and should see occasional rains. Flash flood and landslide risk applies here as well. The rest of the Visayas — including Eastern Visayas and Central Visayas — can expect cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers or thunderstorms, also courtesy of the southwest monsoon, with the same flash flood and landslide caution advised.
Mindanao
The Zamboanga Peninsula and BARMM (Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao) are forecast to have cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers or thunderstorms under the southwest monsoon. Possible flash floods and landslides are flagged. SOCCSKSARGEN falls in a similar weather pattern.
The rest of Mindanao is expected to experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, also linked to the southwest monsoon. PAGASA warns of possible flash floods and landslides due to severe thunderstorms in localized areas. While conditions are somewhat less severe than those in northern Luzon, residents across Mindanao should not dismiss the risk of sudden, intense downpours.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
Sea conditions are dangerous for small vessel operators today. PAGASA reports the following coastal water outlook:
- Western Luzon: Moderate to strong winds; rough seas with wave heights of 1.5 to 3.1 meters.
- Visayas (all sides) and Mindanao: Moderate to strong southwest winds; moderate to rough seas with wave heights of 1.5 to 3.1 meters.
- Eastern Luzon: Sea conditions data also reflect the broader influence of the dual weather systems — residents in coastal communities should check the latest PAGASA maritime advisories.
Wave heights of 1.5 to 3.1 meters are dangerous for small and even medium-sized fishing vessels. Only large, seaworthy ships should consider venturing out, and even then with extreme caution.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Level Really Means
PAGASA's forecast includes multiple hazard flags today. Understanding what these mean in plain terms can help you make the right decisions for your safety. For a full breakdown of all warning levels, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
Flash flood and landslide warnings are flagged across virtually all regions today. This means that even if it is not raining heavily at your exact location right now, rainfall in the mountains or upstream areas could rapidly raise river and creek levels. If you live near waterways, drainage channels, or hillsides, you should be ready to move to higher ground quickly should water levels start rising.
"Stormy conditions" in Batanes reflect the most severe category of forecast language in today's bulletin. This means dangerous wind speeds and heavy rain that can disrupt transportation, damage structures, and make outdoor movement hazardous. Residents in Batanes should remain indoors and away from windows and flood-prone areas.
"Rains with gusty winds" in Cagayan signal that while conditions are less extreme than Batanes, wind-driven damage to trees, power lines, and light structures is possible. Residents should secure loose objects around their homes and avoid unnecessary travel.
Rough seas (1.5 to 3.1-meter waves) across western coastal areas mean that small fishing boats and bancas face life-threatening conditions. PAGASA strongly advises that small vessel operators remain ashore.
What It Means for You
Commuters
Commuters in Metro Manila, the Ilocos Region, CAR, Cagayan Valley, and across Visayas and Mindanao should prepare for wet morning and afternoon conditions. Bring a reliable rain jacket or umbrella. Expect possible flooding on low-lying roads, particularly in areas prone to flash floods. Allow extra travel time and monitor local government advisories on road closures.
Fisherfolk and Small Boat Operators
Today is not a safe day to be at sea along the western coasts of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. PAGASA's forecast of rough to very rough seas with waves of 1.5 to 3.1 meters makes small vessel operations extremely hazardous. Fisherfolk are strongly urged to stay ashore and secure their boats until conditions improve. Check PAGASA maritime advisories before any decision to return to sea.
Farmers
Farmers across Luzon and Visayas should be cautious about fieldwork today given the widespread rain and gusty wind forecast. Those in Batanes and Cagayan face particularly harsh conditions. Farmers with crops in areas prone to flooding should assess and protect their harvests now. The southwest monsoon-driven rains, while helpful for irrigation in some areas, can also cause crop damage if prolonged.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents should monitor announcements from their local government units (LGUs) and Department of Education (DepEd) regional offices regarding possible class suspensions, particularly in Batanes, Cagayan, and areas under heavy monsoon rainfall. Stormy conditions in Batanes in particular warrant close attention to any local emergency directives.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery personnel, and others who work outdoors across Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao face elevated risks today from gusty winds, slippery conditions, and reduced visibility during heavy rain. Workers in Batanes and Cagayan face the most serious conditions and should seek shelter if wind and rain intensify. Employers should consider suspending non-essential outdoor work in the most severely affected areas.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 32°C and a minimum of 26.4°C yesterday. Sunrise today is at 5:36 AM and sunset at 6:20 PM. While no extreme heat index warnings are included in today's bulletin for specific regions, the combination of tropical temperatures and high humidity — yesterday's minimum humidity was recorded at 78% — means that areas not directly under heavy rain may still feel warm and muggy. Residents should stay hydrated, particularly during breaks in the rain.
Bottom line: Typhoon Inday and the southwest monsoon are making most of the Philippines wet and windy on Saturday, July 11. If you are in Batanes or Cagayan, stay indoors and follow local emergency directives. If you are a fisherfolk or small boat operator along any western coastline, stay ashore — the seas are too dangerous. Everyone else should carry rain gear, avoid flood-prone areas, and stay updated through official channels.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.