QUEZON CITY, October 28, 2026 — Residents across parts of Central and Southern Luzon should brace for moderate to at times heavy rainfall on Wednesday, as a shear line drives scattered rains and isolated thunderstorms over several provinces. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued this forecast at 4:00 AM today, valid until 4:00 AM on Thursday, October 29.
While much of the Visayas, Mindanao, and Metro Manila will see more manageable conditions with isolated rainshowers, the threat of flash floods and landslides is real across the shear line's coverage area — and even localized thunderstorms elsewhere in the country carry the same risk if they intensify.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
Two weather systems are shaping conditions across the country today, according to PAGASA.
The first is a shear line affecting the eastern sections of Central and Southern Luzon. A shear line is a boundary where winds blowing in different directions meet, forcing warm, moist air to rise rapidly — producing cloud buildup, prolonged rainfall, and the potential for thunderstorms. This is the more active system today, and it is responsible for the heaviest rainfall threat in the forecast.
The second system is the northeast monsoon, locally known as amihan, which is affecting Northern Luzon and the rest of Central Luzon. The amihan is a seasonal wind pattern that brings cooler, drier air down from the northeast across the northern parts of the country. While it can produce overcast skies and light rain, it is generally less disruptive than a shear line or a tropical cyclone.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
The most significant weather conditions today are concentrated in Luzon, particularly along the shear line's path.
Aurora, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes will experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and isolated thunderstorms, driven by the shear line. PAGASA warns of possible flash floods and landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rains. Residents in low-lying and mountainous areas of these provinces must remain on alert throughout the day.
Batanes, Apayao, Cagayan, and Isabela — in the far north — will have cloudy skies with light rains under the influence of the northeast monsoon. PAGASA notes no significant impact expected for this group of provinces.
The Ilocos Region, the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, the rest of Cagayan Valley, and the rest of Central Luzon can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains, also brought by the northeast monsoon. No significant impact is expected here either.
Metro Manila falls under the broader national forecast, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and the chance of isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms caused by localized convection. While the risk is lower than in the shear line zone, PAGASA notes that flash floods and landslides remain possible during severe thunderstorm episodes.
Visayas
The Visayas is covered under PAGASA's national grouping of "Metro Manila and the rest of the country," which means residents across the region can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. These are driven by localized thunderstorms rather than the organized systems affecting Luzon. The associated hazard is possible flash floods or landslides should any of these thunderstorms become severe.
Mindanao
Mindanao similarly falls under the general nationwide forecast, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and the chance of isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms due to localized activity. As with the Visayas, residents should be aware of the flash flood and landslide risk if thunderstorms intensify in their area, even if the overall threat level is lower than in the shear line corridor.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
Northern Luzon and the eastern sections of Central and Southern Luzon will experience moderate to strong winds from the northeast. Coastal waters in these areas will be rough, with wave heights of 1.5 to 3.4 meters. These are dangerous conditions for small sea vessels and fisherfolk operating in these waters.
The rest of the country will have light to moderate winds blowing from the northeast to east. Coastal waters will be slight to moderate, with wave heights ranging from 0.6 to 2.1 meters — generally safer, but still requiring caution for smaller boats.
Understanding the Hazard Warnings
PAGASA's forecast today does not carry formal color-coded rainfall warnings (yellow, orange, or red) or tropical cyclone wind signals. However, the agency explicitly flags two hazard scenarios that all readers should understand:
Possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rains (Shear Line zone): This applies to Aurora, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. Even without a formal color-coded alert, "moderate to at times heavy rains" accumulating over hours can rapidly saturate hillsides and overwhelm drainage. Residents in these areas — especially those near rivers, slopes, or low-lying zones — should not wait for floodwaters to rise before moving to higher ground.
Possible flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms (Nationwide, localized): This applies to Metro Manila and the rest of the country, including the Visayas and Mindanao. Localized thunderstorms can dump intense rainfall in a short time over a concentrated area, even when the broader sky looks manageable. Flash floods triggered this way can develop very quickly with little warning.
If you want a full explanation of how PAGASA's warning system works — including what rainfall colors, storm signals, and heat index categories mean — read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What This Means for You
Commuters
If you are traveling through Aurora, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, or the Bicol provinces of Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes today, expect disruptions. Roads in mountainous areas may become slippery or blocked by landslides, and low-lying roads near rivers may flood. Leave earlier than usual, monitor road conditions through local government advisories, and avoid crossing flooded roads regardless of water depth. Commuters in Metro Manila and other parts of the country should carry rain gear and be prepared for short but intense downpours from isolated thunderstorms.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
PAGASA's sea-state data is a direct safety concern today. If you operate along Northern Luzon's coasts or the eastern coasts of Central and Southern Luzon, rough seas with waves reaching up to 3.4 meters make small-vessel operations extremely dangerous. Staying ashore is the safest decision. Fisherfolk in the rest of the country face slight to moderate seas — conditions that are more manageable but still require sound judgment, particularly for smaller bancas and outrigger boats.
Farmers
Farmers in the shear line zone — especially those in Quezon, Aurora, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes — should secure crops and equipment ahead of possible heavy rains. In areas under the northeast monsoon influence, such as Cagayan Valley and the Ilocos Region, the lighter rains are less of an immediate threat to harvests, but accumulated soil moisture should still be monitored. Farmers across the Visayas and Mindanao should watch for any localized thunderstorm development that may bring sudden, intense rain to their fields.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents and school administrators in the shear line-affected provinces should monitor local government announcements regarding class suspensions. The flash flood and landslide risk in Aurora, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes means that school routes — particularly those crossing rivers or passing through hilly terrain — may become hazardous. Elsewhere in the country, while conditions are milder, isolated thunderstorms can develop quickly; students commuting home in the afternoon should be prepared for sudden rain.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery personnel, and others working outdoors in the shear line corridor should be especially vigilant. Thunderstorms bring not just rain but also the risk of lightning strikes. Seek sturdy shelter at the first sign of thunder and avoid open fields, tall trees, and metal structures. Outdoor workers across the rest of the country face similar, if lower-probability, risks from localized thunderstorms.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA recorded temperature data at its weather station in Science Garden, Diliman, Quezon City for the 24-hour period ending 8:00 PM on October 27. The maximum temperature reached 33.8°C at 1:00 PM, while the minimum was 23.1°C at 6:00 AM. Relative humidity peaked at 90% at 6:00 AM and dipped to a minimum of 53% at 1:00 PM. These figures reflect recorded conditions at that specific station and may differ across regions of the country.
Bottom Line
If you live in or are traveling through Aurora, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, or Catanduanes today, stay alert for flash floods and landslides — moderate to heavy rains from the shear line make these hazards real even without a formal color-coded warning. Avoid riverbanks, slopes, and flood-prone areas, and do not cross flooded roads. Everywhere else in the country, carry rain gear and watch for sudden, intense thunderstorms that can trigger localized flooding.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.