QUEZON CITY — A shear line and the northeast monsoon are together shaping a wet and cloudy Thursday across much of Luzon, with PAGASA warning of possible flash floods and landslides in Metro Manila and several key provinces, according to the agency's 4:00 AM forecast issued on October 29, 2026, valid until 4:00 AM on Friday, October 30.
Residents in Metro Manila, CALABARZON, and parts of the Bicol Region are urged to remain alert throughout the day, as scattered rains and isolated thunderstorms could trigger dangerous flooding and slope failures. While the rest of the country faces a milder picture, localized thunderstorms remain possible from the Visayas all the way down to Mindanao.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
PAGASA identifies two weather systems responsible for today's conditions.
The first is a shear line — a boundary in the atmosphere where two air masses moving in different directions meet, causing air to converge, rise, and produce clouds and rainfall. This shear line is currently positioned over the eastern sections of Central and Southern Luzon, and it is the primary trigger for the moderate to heavy rains and thunderstorms affecting the greater Manila area and nearby provinces today.
The second system is the northeast monsoon, locally known as amihan — a seasonal wind pattern that blows cool, moist air from the northeast across the northern Philippines during the latter months of the year. The amihan is currently covering Northern Luzon and the rest of Central Luzon, producing generally lighter, more manageable rainfall in those areas.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Metro Manila and Nearby Provinces (Luzon)
Residents of Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Aurora, Bulacan, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur should prepare for cloudy skies with scattered rains and isolated thunderstorms throughout the day. PAGASA explicitly flags these areas for possible flash floods and landslides due to moderate to heavy rainfall. This is the highest-impact zone in today's forecast, and residents — particularly those living near rivers, low-lying areas, or hillsides — should remain on alert.
Northern Luzon
The Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), and Nueva Ecija will experience cloudy skies with light rains, brought by the northeast monsoon. PAGASA does not flag significant impacts for these areas today, though residents in the Cordillera should remain mindful of trail and road conditions given the mountainous terrain.
The Ilocos Region and the rest of Central Luzon can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains — also under the influence of the northeast monsoon, with no significant impacts expected.
Visayas
The Visayas falls under the broader "rest of the country" category in today's PAGASA forecast. Residents can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driven by localized thunderstorm activity. While these conditions are less severe than those in Central and Southern Luzon, isolated thunderstorms can still develop quickly and bring sudden, heavy downpours.
Mindanao
Mindanao shares the same general forecast as the Visayas: partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms from localized thunderstorm activity. No major weather systems are directly targeting the region today, but the public is reminded that localized thunderstorms — while not system-driven — can still be intense and short-lived.
Wind and Sea Conditions
Mariners and coastal communities should pay close attention to sea conditions today, particularly in the north.
Northern Luzon and the eastern sections of Central and Southern Luzon will experience moderate to strong winds from the northeast, generating rough seas with wave heights of 1.5 to 3.4 meters. These conditions pose a serious hazard to small vessels.
The rest of the country will have light to moderate winds blowing from the northeast to east, with slight to moderate coastal waters and wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters — more manageable, but still worthy of caution for smaller watercraft.
Decoding the Warnings: What Flash Flood and Landslide Risk Means for You
PAGASA's forecast specifically warns of possible flash floods or landslides in Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Aurora, Bulacan, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur due to moderate to heavy rainfall. This is not a formal color-coded rainfall warning, but it is a direct agency advisory — meaning conditions are such that dangerous, fast-moving flooding or slope failure could occur, especially if rainfall becomes persistent or intense during thunderstorm episodes.
Understanding how PAGASA grades its warnings can help you respond appropriately. For a full breakdown of what each warning level means and what actions to take, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
If you live or work in any of the flagged provinces, monitor water levels in rivers and drainage systems closely. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads or streams. If you live on or near a slope, be alert to signs of ground movement, unusual sounds, or cracks in the soil.
What It Means for You
Commuters
Expect disruptions to traffic and public transportation across Metro Manila and CALABARZON as scattered rains and thunderstorms develop through the day. Allow extra travel time, avoid underpasses and low-lying roads prone to flooding, and keep an eye on local government advisories regarding road closures. Those traveling by sea between islands along the eastern coast of Luzon should coordinate with their ferry operators and check for any advisories given the rough seas in those waters.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
PAGASA's forecast of rough seas — with waves reaching up to 3.4 meters — off Northern Luzon and the eastern sections of Central and Southern Luzon makes these waters dangerous for small vessels today. Fisherfolk and boat operators in these areas are strongly advised to avoid venturing out to sea. Even in the rest of the country where seas are slight to moderate, small outrigger boats should exercise caution, especially if localized thunderstorms develop offshore.
Farmers
Farmers in Metro Manila's surrounding provinces and the Bicol Region should secure crops, equipment, and livestock ahead of possible heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. Flash floods and landslides — flagged explicitly by PAGASA — can damage crops and irrigation infrastructure rapidly. Farmers in Northern Luzon under light amihan rains face less immediate risk but should monitor conditions as the day progresses.
Students and Parents
Families in Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Bulacan, Aurora, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur should stay updated on any class suspension announcements from local government units. Scattered thunderstorms can escalate quickly, and school dismissal times may coincide with peak afternoon rainfall. Keep children indoors during thunderstorms and ensure safe routes home are planned in advance.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, and others who work outdoors in the affected Luzon provinces should take the flash flood and landslide warning seriously. Seek shelter immediately when thunderstorms develop, avoid open elevated areas during lightning, and do not work near riverbanks or steep slopes when heavy rainfall is ongoing.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA recorded the following temperature and humidity readings at its Science Garden station in Diliman, Quezon City, for the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM yesterday:
- Maximum temperature: 33.5°C, recorded at 2:00 PM
- Minimum temperature: 24.9°C, recorded at 5:00 AM
- Maximum relative humidity: 90%, recorded at 5:00 AM
- Minimum relative humidity: 49%, recorded at 2:00 PM
The combination of high humidity — reaching 90% in the early morning hours — and warm daytime temperatures reflects the moist atmospheric conditions that are supporting today's scattered rainfall and thunderstorm activity across the region.
Tidal and Astronomical Information (Metro Manila)
For reference, today's high tide in Manila Bay is forecast at 1.28 meters at 11:24 PM, while a low tide of -0.29 meters is expected at 7:01 AM. Sunrise is at 5:51 AM and sunset at 5:29 PM. The moon is currently at 85% illumination. Tidal data is courtesy of NAMRIA.
Bottom line: If you are in Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Aurora, Bulacan, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, or Camarines Sur today, stay alert — PAGASA warns that moderate to heavy rains and thunderstorms could trigger flash floods and landslides. Avoid flood-prone areas, stay off rough coastal waters in Northern and eastern Luzon, and keep watch on official updates throughout the day.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.