QUEZON CITY, July 4, 2026 — Filipinos across the country should prepare for a wet and potentially stormy Saturday, as PAGASA's 4:00 AM forecast warns of scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms from Batanes to Tawi-Tawi. While no tropical cyclone is threatening the Philippines today, the combination of easterlies and localized thunderstorms is enough to raise flash flood and landslide risks in many areas.
The state weather bureau issued its 24-hour public weather forecast at 4:00 AM on Saturday, July 4, 2026, valid through 4:00 AM on Sunday, July 5.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
Two weather drivers are at work across the country today, according to PAGASA.
The first is the easterlies — a broad flow of warm, moisture-laden winds blowing in from the Pacific Ocean toward the eastern side of the archipelago. Think of the easterlies as a conveyor belt of humid air: as that air rises over land, it cools, condenses, and falls as rain. The easterlies are currently influencing Cagayan Valley, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Aurora, Quezon, and Dinagat Islands, producing partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms in those areas.
The second driver is localized thunderstorms — weather events born from daytime heat rather than large-scale wind systems. As the sun heats the ground during the day, warm air rises rapidly, forms towering clouds, and releases energy in the form of heavy rain, lightning, and thunder. This process will affect Metro Manila and the rest of the country not covered by the easterlies today.
Both drivers carry the same bottom-line risk for residents: the possibility of flash floods and landslides during particularly severe thunderstorm episodes.
A Super Typhoon Far to the East
PAGASA is also tracking Super Typhoon Bavi (2609), but it poses no direct threat to the Philippines at this time. As of 3:00 AM today, Bavi was located 2,985 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas, at coordinates 12.7°N, 152.1°E — well outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). The super typhoon is packing maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h near the center and gusts of up to 240 km/h, moving westward at 15 km/h.
PAGASA will continue to monitor Bavi's track. Readers should watch for updated bulletins should the system enter PAR in the coming days.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
Residents in Cagayan Valley — covering Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, and Batanes — along with those in Aurora and Quezon province on the Pacific-facing side of Luzon should expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driven by the easterlies. The Bicol Region, comprising Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Masbate, and Sorsogon, falls under the same easterly influence.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon — including the Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, and MIMAROPA — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms from localized heating. Rain may be most intense during the afternoon and early evening hours when heat buildup is at its peak.
Wind conditions across Luzon are light to moderate. The eastern section of Luzon will see winds blowing from the east to northeast, while the rest of Luzon experiences northeast to east winds. Coastal waters along eastern Luzon are slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.8 meters — the highest in the country today, consistent with the direct easterly flow in that area.
Visayas
Eastern Visayas — comprising Leyte, Southern Leyte, Samar, Eastern Samar, and Northern Samar — is directly under the easterly influence and should prepare for partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. The rest of the Visayas, including the Western Visayas and Central Visayas regions, will experience localized thunderstorm activity.
Winds across the Visayas are light to moderate, blowing from the northeast to northwest. Coastal waters are slight to moderate, with wave heights ranging from 0.6 to 1.2 meters, generally manageable for larger vessels but requiring caution for small fishing boats and outrigger bancas.
Mindanao
All of Mindanao — from the Zamboanga Peninsula and Northern Mindanao to Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, Caraga, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao — will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms due to localized heating. Dinagat Islands is a special case: its position on the eastern flank of Mindanao places it under direct easterly influence today.
The eastern section of Mindanao sees light to moderate winds from the northeast to northwest. The rest of Mindanao experiences light to moderate winds from the southwest to west. Coastal waters in Mindanao are slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.2 meters.
Decoding Today's Hazard Warnings
While there are no tropical cyclone wind signals or color-coded rainfall warnings in effect as of this bulletin, PAGASA has flagged one important hazard across all forecast areas: the possibility of flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms.
This is not a minor advisory. Flash floods can develop within minutes when a severe thunderstorm dumps heavy rain over a short period — especially in areas near rivers, creeks, drainage channels, and steep hillsides. Landslides are a parallel risk in mountainous terrain and areas with loose or saturated soil. Residents in Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Cagayan Valley, and other historically flood-prone areas should be especially watchful.
If you want to understand how PAGASA structures its warning systems — from rainfall color codes to tropical cyclone wind signals — read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What It Means for You
Commuters
Expect afternoon and evening showers in Metro Manila and most urban centers today. Roads may flood quickly during intense downpours, and traffic congestion typically worsens during rain. If you are commuting by public transport or on foot, carry an umbrella or rain gear and allow extra travel time. Avoid crossing flooded roads or underpasses — even shallow-looking floodwater can be dangerous.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Coastal waters are classified as slight to moderate nationwide, with the choppiest conditions along the eastern seaboard of Luzon (wave heights up to 1.8 meters). While large vessels should be able to operate, operators of small fishing boats and bangkas should exercise caution, stay close to shore, and monitor PAGASA's coastal marine forecast before heading out. The combination of scattered thunderstorms and moderate waves makes conditions unpredictable today.
Farmers
Scattered rainfall may provide some relief to dryland crops across the country. However, farmers in low-lying areas or near river systems should be alert to the flash flood hazard during severe thunderstorms. Avoid working in open fields during active thunderstorm periods, as lightning poses a direct risk. Secure loose equipment and harvested produce before thunderstorms develop.
Students, Parents, and School Administrators
With no tropical cyclone signals active, there is currently no basis for class suspensions under standard PAGASA-triggered protocols. However, local government units have the authority to suspend classes based on actual local conditions. Parents should keep an eye on announcements from their local government and school administrations, particularly in flood-prone areas. Ensure children are equipped with rain gear and that school dismissal plans account for potential afternoon showers.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Sites
Workers in outdoor and elevated settings — construction workers, utility crews, agricultural laborers — should plan their most exposed tasks for the morning hours before convective heating intensifies. Suspend work on elevated platforms or scaffolding if thunderstorms develop nearby. Employers should have clear weather-related safety protocols in place, including designated shelter areas.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's recorded temperatures at the Science Garden weather station in Diliman, Quezon City, for the 24-hour period ending 8:00 PM on Friday, July 3, were:
- Maximum temperature: 33.9°C, recorded at 4:00 PM
- Minimum temperature: 25.4°C, recorded at 6:00 AM
- Maximum relative humidity: 94%, recorded at 6:00 AM
- Minimum relative humidity: 56%, recorded at 2:00 PM
The near-maximum humidity of 94% in the early morning, combined with a daytime high of nearly 34°C, reflects the muggy, oppressive feel that is typical of the Philippine rainy season. Even on partly cloudy days, the "feels-like" temperature can be significantly higher than the thermometer reading due to high humidity. Residents should stay hydrated, wear light clothing, and take breaks in shaded or air-conditioned spaces during the hottest part of the day.
Sunrise in Metro Manila today is at 5:31 AM and sunset at 6:30 PM, giving residents a roughly 13-hour daylight window. Moonrise is at 9:39 PM tonight, with the moon at 82% illumination.
Bottom Line
Scattered thunderstorms can develop with little warning anywhere in the country today, July 4, 2026 — stay away from flood-prone areas, avoid crossing flooded roads, and do not shelter under trees or near tall structures during lightning activity. Check for PAGASA updates before heading out this afternoon.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.