QUEZON CITY, June 28, 2026 — A significant portion of the Philippines faces the threat of flash floods and landslides this Sunday as two separate weather systems — a Low Pressure Area lurking east of Mindanao and the season's southwest monsoon — drive scattered rains and thunderstorms across key regions from Luzon to Mindanao, according to PAGASA's 4:00 AM forecast bulletin issued today.
The state weather bureau urges residents in affected areas — particularly in Eastern Visayas, Caraga, Davao Region, Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Palawan — to remain alert, avoid flood-prone and landslide-prone areas, and closely monitor official PAGASA advisories throughout the day.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
Two distinct weather drivers are at work across the archipelago today, and understanding them helps explain why different parts of the country are experiencing different conditions.
The first is a Low Pressure Area (LPA), which PAGASA estimated at 3:00 AM today to be located approximately 890 kilometers east of Northeastern Mindanao, at coordinates 10.0°N, 133.6°E. An LPA is essentially a zone where air pressure is lower than its surroundings, causing warm, moisture-laden air to rise, condense, and produce clouds and rainfall. Although the LPA is still well out to sea, its outer circulation is already delivering cloud bands and rain-producing systems to the eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao.
The second driver is the southwest monsoon, locally known as habagat. The habagat is a seasonal wind pattern that blows from the southwest during the wet season, carrying moisture from the sea toward the western coastlines of the Philippine landmass. This year, it is actively affecting the western section of Luzon, bringing persistent cloudy skies and rain to provinces facing the South China Sea and the West Philippine Sea.
The rest of the country, including Metro Manila, is experiencing the effects of localized thunderstorms — weather events that develop due to daytime heating and atmospheric instability rather than a large-scale system, but which can still produce sudden, intense downpours and flooding.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Mindanao
Residents in Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Region should brace for the most unsettled weather today. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms driven by the LPA. Moderate to at times heavy rainfall is expected, raising the risk of flash floods and landslides — particularly in mountainous and low-lying communities in these areas. People living near rivers, creeks, and hillsides are strongly advised to stay alert and heed any local government evacuation orders promptly.
Luzon
The southwest monsoon (habagat) is making its presence felt along the western side of Luzon. Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Palawan will experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms. As with the LPA-affected areas, PAGASA warns of the possibility of flash floods and landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rains in these provinces.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon not specifically named above will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms caused by localized weather systems. While conditions are generally less severe, PAGASA notes that flash floods remain possible during severe thunderstorm episodes — a reminder that no part of the country should be entirely complacent today.
Visayas
Eastern Visayas falls under the influence of the LPA and is included in PAGASA's warning for scattered rains and thunderstorms with flash flood and landslide risks. The western and central Visayas provinces not specifically listed — including areas in Western Visayas and Central Visayas — are grouped under the general "rest of the country" forecast, which means partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated showers or thunderstorms from localized systems.
Understanding the Hazard Warnings
PAGASA's forecast for today does not raise a tropical cyclone wind signal. However, the bureau explicitly flags the risk of flash floods and landslides in two categories of areas: those with "scattered rains and thunderstorms" from the LPA or southwest monsoon (moderate to at times heavy rain), and those with "isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms" from localized systems (flash flood risk during severe episodes).
It is important for readers to understand that even without a named storm or a formal storm signal, heavy thunderstorms can cause life-threatening flooding in minutes — especially in urban areas with poor drainage and in communities built on or near slopes. If you are unsure how PAGASA classifies and communicates weather hazards, this guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings explains rainfall color-coded alerts, tropical cyclone wind signals, and heat index categories in plain language.
If your local government issues an evacuation order today — whether for flooding or landslides — comply immediately and do not wait for conditions to worsen before acting.
What It Means for You
Commuters
In Metro Manila and other urban centers, expect possible traffic disruptions and localized flooding during and immediately after thunderstorms. Allow extra travel time, avoid underpasses and low-lying roads during heavy rain, and keep an eye on PAGASA and local government social media pages for real-time updates. If you commute by motorcycle or bicycle, be especially cautious on wet roads.
Fisherfolk and Small Boat Operators
Coastal waters around Luzon are forecast at slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.2 meters. Waters in the rest of the country — including the seas around Visayas and Mindanao — are forecast at slight to moderate with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters. The higher end of that wave range can be hazardous for small vessels. PAGASA advises caution; those operating small boats are strongly encouraged to assess conditions carefully before heading out and to stay close to shore if they do.
Farmers
The moderate to at times heavy rains in Eastern Visayas, Caraga, Davao Region, and parts of western Luzon pose a risk of waterlogging in low-lying agricultural fields. Farmers in these areas should secure crops and farm animals ahead of potential flooding and avoid working in fields adjacent to swollen rivers or on unstable hillside terrain during active thunderstorms.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents and school administrators in Caraga, Eastern Visayas, Davao Region, Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Palawan should monitor local government announcements on class suspensions. Even in areas with only isolated thunderstorms, severe downpours can develop quickly — especially in the afternoon. Ensure children are not left waiting outdoors during heavy rain.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Sites
Workers exposed to the elements in all affected areas should adhere to safety protocols during thunderstorms, which include suspending work on elevated structures during lightning activity. Flash flood watches should be taken seriously on construction sites near waterways.
Temperature Outlook
At PAGASA's Science Garden weather station in Diliman, Quezon City, the maximum temperature recorded for the 24-hour period ending 8:00 PM yesterday was 32.7°C, reached at 3:30 PM. The minimum temperature was 26.0°C, recorded at 6:00 AM. Relative humidity ranged from a high of 92% to a low of 53%, reflecting the moist, wet-season atmosphere dominating the Metro Manila area. The near-full moon — at 98% illumination — will be visible tonight where skies clear.
While no heat index warning is included in today's PAGASA bulletin, high humidity combined with afternoon temperatures in the low 30s can still feel oppressive, particularly for people working outdoors in areas not currently experiencing rain. Stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade during peak afternoon hours.
Bottom Line
If you live in Eastern Visayas, Caraga, Davao Region, Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, or Palawan, your single most important action today is to stay away from flood-prone and landslide-prone areas and follow any evacuation orders from local authorities immediately — PAGASA warns that moderate to heavy rain is possible and that flash floods and landslides are real risks throughout the day.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.