Typhoon Samuel (international name: Cempaka) entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday morning, November 9, 2026, but is forecast to exit the country's weather domain between tonight and early Tuesday without making landfall, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
PAGASA issued Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 1 at 11:00 AM on Monday, noting that no Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal is currently in effect anywhere in the Philippines.
Samuel's Position and Strength at 10:00 AM Monday
As of 10:00 AM Monday, the center of Typhoon Samuel was located approximately 1,370 kilometers east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon, at coordinates 23.9°N, 134.7°E, according to PAGASA.
The typhoon carried maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h near the center, with gustiness of up to 150 km/h and a central pressure of 980 hPa. Tropical cyclone-force winds extended outward up to 300 kilometers from the center.
Samuel Forecast to Intensify Before Weakening
PAGASA said Samuel is forecast to turn north northeastward slowly within the next 12 hours and exit the PAR between tonight and early Tuesday, November 10. Once outside the PAR, the typhoon is expected to accelerate generally east northeastward over the Pacific Ocean.
The agency said Samuel may reach its peak intensity by Monday evening or early Tuesday morning, after which unfavorable atmospheric conditions will trigger a weakening trend.
The 60-hour forecast track, through 8:00 PM on Wednesday, November 11, places Samuel at 2,845 kilometers east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon — well outside the PAR — with maximum sustained winds reduced to 95 km/h, downgraded to severe tropical storm category.
Track and Intensity Forecast
The following track and intensity projections were included in PAGASA's Bulletin No. 1:
- 8:00 PM, Monday, November 9 — 1,435 km east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (outside PAR); 140 km/h MSW, Typhoon; moving north northeastward slowly
- 8:00 AM, Tuesday, November 10 — 1,675 km east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (outside PAR); 150 km/h MSW, Typhoon; moving east northeastward at 20 km/h
- 8:00 PM, Tuesday, November 10 — 2,010 km east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (outside PAR); 130 km/h MSW, Typhoon; moving eastward at 30 km/h
- 8:00 AM, Wednesday, November 11 — 2,405 km east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (outside PAR); 110 km/h MSW, Severe Tropical Storm; moving east northeastward at 35 km/h
- 8:00 PM, Wednesday, November 11 — 2,845 km east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (outside PAR); 95 km/h MSW, Severe Tropical Storm; moving east northeastward at 35 km/h
No Direct Rainfall Threat, but Northeast Monsoon Brings Severe Winds
PAGASA said Samuel is "less likely to directly affect the weather condition of the country throughout the forecast period." However, the Northeast Monsoon, enhanced by Samuel's presence, will bring strong to gale-force gusts across wide areas of the country.
Affected areas on Monday include most of Luzon and Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Zamboanga del Norte, Davao Oriental, Davao Occidental, and Sarangani — particularly in coastal and upland areas exposed to the wind.
The same monsoon-driven wind conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday, November 10, and into Wednesday, November 11, covering most of Luzon and Visayas and several areas in Mindanao, according to PAGASA.
Dangerous Seas Along Northern Luzon Coastlines
PAGASA warned of very rough to rough seas along the northern seaboards of Luzon, with the most hazardous conditions concentrated around Batanes and the Babuyan Islands.
Wave heights in the 24-hour sea condition outlook are forecast as follows:
- Up to 5.5 m — Northern seaboard of Batanes
- Up to 5.0 m — Northern seaboard of Babuyan Islands; remaining seaboard of Batanes
- Up to 4.5 m — Northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte; northeastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; remaining seaboard of Babuyan Islands
- Up to 4.0 m — Seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora; northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte
- Up to 3.5 m — Seaboards of Ilocos Sur, Isabela, and northern Quezon; northwestern seaboard of Pangasinan; northern seaboards of Camarines Norte and Kalayaan Islands; remaining seaboard of Aurora
- Up to 3.0 m — Northern seaboard of La Union; northern seaboard of Camarines Norte; northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; northeastern seaboards of Northern Samar and Eastern Samar
PAGASA said sea travel is risky for all types and tonnage of vessels in areas with very rough seas, advising all mariners to remain in port or seek safe harbor. Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, were told not to venture out to sea under rough sea conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
A Gale Warning may also be issued Monday afternoon over the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon due to the Northeast Monsoon, the agency added.
Moderate Sea Conditions Farther South and West
Moderate seas of up to 2.5 meters are forecast along the southern seaboard of Catanduanes, eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon, northern seaboard of Northern Samar, eastern seaboards of Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands, and Siargao-Bucas Grande Islands, as well as the remaining seaboards of La Union, Pangasinan, and Kalayaan Islands.
Wave heights of up to 2.0 meters are expected along the seaboards of Zambales, Lubang Islands, Palawan including Calamian, Cuyo and Cagayancillo Islands, Caluya Islands, Zamboanga del Norte, Surigao del Sur, the eastern seaboard of Davao Oriental, and other surrounding areas. PAGASA advised mariners of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels to take precautionary measures or avoid navigation under these conditions.
Next Bulletin and Public Advisory
PAGASA reminded the public that heavy rainfall and severe winds may still be experienced in localities outside the forecast confidence cone, and that the track may shift within the limits of that cone. The public and disaster risk reduction and management offices were advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property.
Persons in areas highly susceptible to weather hazards were directed to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. The next tropical cyclone bulletin was scheduled for 5:00 PM on Monday, November 9, 2026.
Photo credit: Photo courtesy of PAGASA/DOST