QUEZON CITY — Parts of Mindanao face the threat of flash floods and landslides on Sunday, November 15, 2026, as easterlies push scattered rains and thunderstorms across Davao Region, Surigao del Sur, and Agusan del Sur, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). The rest of the country, from Luzon to the Visayas, braces for a mix of partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and the chance of severe thunderstorms throughout the day.
PAGASA released this 24-hour public weather forecast at 4:00 AM on November 15, 2026, valid until 4:00 AM on Monday, November 16, 2026.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
The weather system responsible for today's conditions nationwide is the easterlies — a broad flow of winds originating from the Pacific Ocean to the east of the Philippine archipelago. When easterlies blow across the country, they carry warm, moisture-laden air that fuels cloud build-up, rainshowers, and — particularly over land areas prone to afternoon heating — the formation of thunderstorms. The eastern-facing coastlines and highland areas of Mindanao are especially vulnerable when easterlies are active, as incoming moisture has less distance to travel before rising over terrain and triggering intense rainfall.
PAGASA attributes all of today's forecast weather conditions — from the heavy thunderstorms in Mindanao to the lighter, more scattered showers across the rest of the Philippines — to this same easterly wind pattern.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Mindanao
The most significant weather is concentrated in Davao Region, Surigao del Sur, and Agusan del Sur, where PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms. The agency warns of possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rains in these areas. Residents living near rivers, low-lying areas, and hillsides in these provinces should remain on high alert throughout the day and be ready to move to safer ground if conditions worsen rapidly.
Local government units in Davao Region, Surigao del Sur, and Agusan del Sur are advised to monitor conditions closely.
Visayas
The Visayas falls under the forecast for "the rest of the country," where PAGASA expects partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. While conditions are generally lighter than those in the hardest-hit parts of Mindanao, the agency cautions that severe thunderstorms could still trigger localized flash floods or landslides. Residents in Visayas provinces with elevated terrain or flood-prone lowlands should remain weather-aware throughout the day.
Luzon (Including Metro Manila)
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driven by the same easterly wind flow. The hazard outlook for Luzon mirrors that of the Visayas: while widespread heavy rain is not forecast, any severe thunderstorm that develops has the potential to cause localized flash flooding or landslides, particularly in mountainous or low-lying flood-prone areas.
Metro Manila residents should prepare for the possibility of sudden, brief but intense downpours, especially during the afternoon and evening hours when solar heating can intensify storm development.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
Winds across the country today are light to moderate in intensity. The direction varies slightly by area:
- Eastern sections of Northern and Central Luzon: Winds blowing from the east to southeast; coastal waters classified as slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters.
- Rest of Luzon: Winds from the northwest to northeast; coastal waters slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters.
- Rest of the country (Visayas and Mindanao): Winds from the east to northeast; coastal waters slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters.
Wave heights of up to 2.1 meters on slight-to-moderate coastal waters require caution from mariners and small-boat operators. PAGASA does not issue a gale warning in this forecast.
Decoding the Hazard Warnings
PAGASA does not carry an active tropical cyclone wind signal, gale warning, or color-coded rainfall warning in this forecast bulletin. However, the agency does flag possible flash floods or landslides as hazards in two distinct categories:
- Davao Region, Surigao del Sur, and Agusan del Sur: Flash flood or landslide risk due to moderate to at times heavy rains from scattered thunderstorms.
- Metro Manila and the rest of the country: Flash flood or landslide risk during severe thunderstorms.
For a full explanation of how PAGASA's warning systems work — from rainfall colors to storm signals — read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What Today's Weather Means for You
Commuters
Expect the possibility of sudden rainshowers or thunderstorms at any point in the day, particularly in the afternoon. Bring a raincoat or umbrella regardless of how the morning starts. In Metro Manila and other urban centers, even isolated thunderstorms can cause rapid street flooding that disrupts traffic and public transport. Allow extra travel time and avoid flood-prone underpasses and roads during heavy downpours.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Coastal waters across the entire country carry slight to moderate waves reaching up to 2.1 meters. While PAGASA has not issued a gale warning, these conditions can be hazardous for small and motorized outrigger boats. Fisherfolk are advised to assess sea conditions carefully before departure and to stay close to shore if venturing out. Those in waters off the eastern coasts of Luzon should be particularly attentive to changing conditions.
Farmers
Agricultural communities in Davao Region, Surigao del Sur, and Agusan del Sur face the greatest weather risk today. Moderate to heavy rains from thunderstorms can cause flash flooding in low-lying farm fields and trigger soil erosion or landslides on hillside crops. Farmers in these areas should secure equipment, check drainage channels, and avoid hillside farm work during peak thunderstorm hours. In the rest of the country, isolated showers may still affect outdoor farm activities intermittently.
Students, Parents, and School Administrators
No class suspensions have been announced in this bulletin, and widespread heavy rain is not forecast for most of the country. However, parents in Davao Region, Surigao del Sur, and Agusan del Sur should monitor local government announcements given the heightened rain and thunderstorm risk in those areas. Afternoon dismissal hours may coincide with the peak of thunderstorm activity — plan pickup arrangements accordingly.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, market vendors, and others who work outdoors should be prepared for sudden thunderstorms throughout the day. Workers in Mindanao's affected provinces — Davao Region, Surigao del Sur, and Agusan del Sur — face the highest risk and should seek shelter immediately if lightning is observed or thunder is heard. Outdoor work on slopes or near waterways in those areas should be paused when thunderstorms develop.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA recorded the following temperature and humidity figures at the PAGASA Weather Station in Science Garden, Diliman, Quezon City, for the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM yesterday:
- Maximum temperature: 32.0°C, recorded at 1:00 PM
- Minimum temperature: 24.2°C, recorded at 5:00 AM
- Maximum relative humidity: 86%, recorded at 5:00 AM
- Minimum relative humidity: 60%, recorded at 11:00 AM
These figures are specific to Metro Manila. Outdoor workers and those without access to cooling should take breaks in shaded or ventilated areas during the midday and early afternoon hours.
Astronomical and Tidal Information for Metro Manila
For reference, sunrise over Metro Manila today is at 5:57 AM and sunset at 5:24 PM. The moon rises at 10:42 AM and sets at 10:14 PM, with a lunar illumination of 31 percent. Manila Bay tidal data, courtesy of NAMRIA, shows a high tide of 1.05 meters at 12:15 AM and a low tide of -0.15 meters at 9:28 AM today.
Bottom line: If you are in Davao Region, Surigao del Sur, or Agusan del Sur, today's scattered thunderstorms and the risk of flash floods and landslides demand your immediate attention — stay away from riverbanks, slopes, and flood-prone areas, and monitor your local government's advisories. Everywhere else in the Philippines, pack an umbrella and stay alert for sudden thunderstorms that could cause localized flooding.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.