Typhoon Rosal (international name: Champi) continued to weaken Thursday night as it moved slowly northwestward over the sea east of Batanes, with PAGASA forecasting the storm to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday evening or early Saturday morning.
In Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 11, issued at 11:00 PM on Thursday, October 22, 2026, PAGASA placed the center of Rosal at approximately 305 kilometers east-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes, at 10:00 PM, at coordinates 21.4°N, 124.7°E.
Storm Strength at Bulletin Time
According to PAGASA, Rosal was packing maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near the center, with gustiness of up to 190 km/h and a central pressure of 945 hPa. The storm was moving northwestward at 10 km/h, with tropical cyclone winds extending outward up to 900 kilometers from the center.
Wind Signals in Effect
As of the bulletin, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 2 was in effect over Batanes and the northeastern portion of Babuyan Islands, including Babuyan, Panuitan, Calayan, and Camiguin islands. Gale-force winds of 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort Scale 8 to 9) were expected in these areas, with minor to moderate threat to life and property, PAGASA said.
TCWS No. 1 — covering strong winds of 39 to 61 km/h — was raised over the rest of Babuyan Islands, mainland Cagayan, the northeastern portion of Isabela (municipalities of Maconacon, Divilacan, Santa Maria, Cabagan, San Pablo, and Palanan), Ilocos Norte, and Apayao. Impacts under Signal No. 1 were assessed at minimal to minor threat.
PAGASA noted that the highest wind signal likely to be raised during Rosal's passage was TCWS No. 3, which was expected to be hoisted over Batanes — though the agency added that if the storm tracked more north-northwestward, hoisting Signal No. 3 would become less likely.
Strong Gusts Expected Across Luzon and Visayas Through Saturday
The northeasterly windflow and the outer bands of Rosal were forecast to bring strong to gale-force gusts over a wide area. According to the bulletin, most of Luzon and Visayas, as well as parts of Mindanao including Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, and Sarangani were already experiencing these conditions on Thursday, October 22.
On Friday, October 23, similar conditions were forecast for most of Luzon and Visayas, Davao Region, Zamboanga del Norte, Misamis Occidental, and Camiguin. On Saturday, October 24, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Polillo Islands, Bicol Region, Romblon, Capiz, Iloilo, and Negros Occidental were listed as areas to experience strong to gale-force gusts, PAGASA said. Coastal and upland areas exposed to the prevailing wind direction were flagged as especially vulnerable.
Dangerous Seas Off Northern Luzon
PAGASA's 24-hour sea condition outlook warned of very rough to very high seas across northern coastal waters. Wave heights of up to 12.0 meters were forecast off the northern and eastern seaboards of Batanes, while waves of up to 9.0 meters were expected around Babuyan Islands, the remaining seaboards of Batanes, and the northeastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan.
Seas of up to 7.0 meters were forecast off the remaining seaboards of mainland Cagayan and northern Isabela, and up to 6.0 meters off the northern coast of Ilocos Norte and the rest of Isabela. Additional advisories covered rough to moderate conditions across a broad arc stretching from Aurora and Northern Samar to Eastern Samar, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte and Sur, and the eastern seaboards of Dinagat Islands and Siargao-Bucas Grande Islands.
PAGASA advised that sea travel was risky for all types or tonnage of vessels in the very rough to very high sea zones, directing all mariners to remain in port or seek safe harbor immediately. Mariners of small craft and motorbancas were advised not to venture out to sea in rough sea areas, while those in moderate-to-rough zones were urged to take precautionary measures and, if possible, avoid navigation entirely.
A Gale Warning was separately in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon, per Gale Warning No. 5 issued at 5:00 PM Thursday, PAGASA said.
Forecast Track: Recurvature and Rapid Weakening
According to PAGASA's track and intensity forecast, Rosal was projected to be 285 kilometers northeast of Itbayat by 8:00 AM Friday, October 23, with maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h, still at typhoon category. By 8:00 PM Friday, the storm was forecast at 405 kilometers north of Itbayat, weakening to 140 km/h.
By 8:00 AM Saturday, October 24, Rosal was expected to have moved outside PAR — 535 kilometers north of Itbayat — and downgraded to a severe tropical storm with 110 km/h winds. By 8:00 PM Saturday, the storm was forecast at 745 kilometers north of Itbayat, further weakening to a tropical storm with 85 km/h winds.
PAGASA said Rosal would continue moving generally northwestward until Friday morning before beginning to turn north-northwestward by Friday afternoon, then recurving north-northeastward by Saturday. The agency noted the storm would be closest to extreme northern Luzon between Thursday night and Friday morning.
PAGASA emphasized that heavy rainfall and severe winds may still affect localities outside the direct forecast track and the confidence cone, and that the track itself could still shift within forecast uncertainty limits. The agency directed the public to monitor heavy rainfall advisories and other weather information from local PAGASA Regional Services Division offices.
Public Safety Advisory
PAGASA, in its bulletin, advised the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons in areas highly or very highly susceptible to storm hazards were directed to follow evacuation orders and instructions from local officials.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin was scheduled for 5:00 AM Friday, October 23, 2026, PAGASA said.
Photo credit: Photo from PAGASA / DOST