Typhoon ROSAL (international name: CHAMPI) was positioned 350 kilometres east of Itbayat, Batanes, as of 4:00 PM on Thursday, October 22, 2026, packing maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h near the centre and gustiness of up to 205 km/h, according to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 10 issued at 5:00 PM Thursday.
The storm's central pressure stood at 940 hPa and its tropical cyclone winds extended outward up to 900 kilometres from the centre. PAGASA said ROSAL was moving northwestward at 15 km/h at the time of the bulletin.
ROSAL Closest to Extreme Northern Luzon Thursday Afternoon Through Friday Morning
According to PAGASA, ROSAL will continue moving generally northwestward until Friday, October 23, morning, before turning north-northwestward by Friday afternoon and then recurving north-northeastward by Saturday, October 24.
The state weather bureau said the tropical cyclone was closest to Extreme Northern Luzon between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, and is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday evening or Saturday early morning.
Forecast Weakening as Rosal Tracks Away from Luzon
PAGASA's track and intensity forecast shows ROSAL weakening progressively as it moves away from the country. At the 12-hour mark — 2:00 AM, Friday, October 23 — the centre is projected at 285 km east-northeast of Itbayat with maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h, still at typhoon strength.
By 2:00 PM Friday, winds are expected to ease to 150 km/h, with the centre 360 km north-northeast of Itbayat. At the 36-hour mark — 2:00 AM, Saturday, October 24 — winds drop further to 130 km/h, with the storm 460 km north of Itbayat.
The bulletin shows ROSAL is expected to weaken to severe tropical storm (STS) category with 110 km/h winds by 2:00 PM Saturday, at which point the centre will be 675 km north of Itbayat and outside PAR. By 2:00 AM Sunday, October 25, the storm is projected 915 km north-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon — still outside PAR — with winds of 95 km/h.
PAGASA said ROSAL is forecast to begin weakening rapidly by Saturday, when it may be downgraded to a severe tropical storm. The agency noted the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
Wind Signals: Batanes Under Signal No. 2, Parts of Northern Luzon Under Signal No. 1
As of the 5:00 PM bulletin, PAGASA placed Batanes and the northeastern portion of Babuyan Islands under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 2, indicating a 24-hour warning lead time for gale-force winds of 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort Scale 8 to 9), with minor to moderate threat to life and property.
TCWS No. 1 — covering strong winds of 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7) with minimal to minor impacts — was raised over the rest of Babuyan Islands, mainland Cagayan, the northeastern portion of Isabela (including Maconacon, Divilacan, Santa Maria, Cabagan, San Pablo, and Palanan), Ilocos Norte, and Apayao. The 36-hour warning lead time applies to areas under Signal No. 1.
PAGASA noted that the highest wind signal likely to be raised during ROSAL's passage is Signal No. 3, which it said is likely to be hoisted over Batanes. However, the agency cautioned that if ROSAL tracks more north-northwestward, the hoisting of Signal No. 3 becomes less likely.
Strong to Gale-Force Gusts Affecting Much of Luzon and Visayas Through Saturday
Driven by the northeasterly windflow and ROSAL's periphery, strong to gale-force gusts are forecast to affect wide areas over the next three days, particularly in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds.
On Thursday, October 22, PAGASA said most of Luzon and Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, and Sarangani are affected. On Friday, October 23, most of Luzon and Visayas, Davao Region, Zamboanga del Norte, Misamis Occidental, and Camiguin will experience such gusts. By Saturday, October 24, the affected areas narrow to Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Polillo Islands, Bicol Region, Romblon, Capiz, Iloilo, and Negros Occidental.
Dangerous Seas Off Northern Luzon; Mariners Ordered to Port
A Gale Warning is in effect over the seaboard of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon, PAGASA said, referring the public to Gale Warning No. 5 issued at 5:00 PM Thursday for full details.
In its 24-hour sea condition outlook, PAGASA warned of extremely dangerous wave heights off northern coasts: up to 12.0 metres off the northern and eastern seaboards of Batanes; up to 9.0 metres off Babuyan Islands, the remaining seaboard of Batanes, and the northeastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; and up to 7.0 metres off the remaining seaboard of mainland Cagayan and northern Isabela.
Wave heights of up to 6.0 metres are forecast off the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte, dropping to up to 5.5 metres over the remaining seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Isabela. Seas off Ilocos Sur, northern Aurora, and northern and eastern portions of Polillo Islands, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur are forecast at up to 4.5 metres.
PAGASA said sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels in the areas with very rough to very high seas, and directed all mariners to remain in port or, if already underway, seek shelter or safe harbour immediately.
Mariners of small seacrafts — including all types of motorbancas — are advised not to venture out in areas expecting up to 4.0 metres of rough seas, covering northern La Union, the western seaboard of Pangasinan, and the northern seaboard of Northern Samar, among others. Moderate to rough seas of up to 2.5 metres are forecast for several western seaboards including Bataan, Lubang Islands, and Surigao del Sur.
Authorities Urged to Activate Disaster Response Measures
DOST-PAGASA advised the public and all disaster risk reduction and management offices to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas highly or very highly susceptible to hazards were specifically urged to follow evacuation orders and other instructions from local officials.
The agency reminded the public that heavy rainfall and severe winds may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. For area-specific heavy rainfall warnings and thunderstorm advisories, PAGASA directed the public to monitor products issued by local PAGASA Regional Services Divisions.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin was scheduled for issuance at 11:00 PM Thursday, October 22, 2026, according to PAGASA.
Photo courtesy of DOST-PAGASA