QUEZON CITY, June 21, 2026 — A significant portion of the Philippines wakes up this Sunday to the combined threat of a powerful tropical storm approaching from the Pacific and a moisture-laden Southwest Monsoon pressing in from the south and west. PAGASA's 4:00 AM forecast warns that Bicol, the Visayas, Mindanao, and Palawan face scattered rains and thunderstorms today — with flash floods and landslides among the real and immediate risks for millions of Filipinos.
The Big Picture: Two Weather Systems at Once
Today's wet weather across the country is not coming from one source — it is being shaped by two distinct weather systems operating simultaneously, according to PAGASA.
The first and more powerful driver is Severe Tropical Storm "Francisco," known internationally as Mekkhala. As of 3:00 AM on Sunday, Francisco was located about 1,325 kilometers east of Southeastern Luzon, at coordinates 14.8°N, 134.0°E. It is carrying maximum sustained winds of 100 kilometers per hour near its center, with gusts reaching up to 125 km/h. The storm is moving west-northwestward at a steady pace of 25 km/h — meaning it is slowly but consistently drawing closer to the Philippine landmass.
Even at this distance, Francisco is already making its presence felt. Tropical storms of this strength generate what meteorologists call a "trough" — essentially a long arm of disturbed, unstable air that extends outward from the storm's core. That trough is now draped over the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas, feeding them the cloudy skies, scattered rains, and thunderstorms that residents there will experience throughout the day.
The second driver is the Southwest Monsoon, locally called habagat. This is a seasonal wind pattern in which warm, moisture-heavy air sweeps in from the southwest, typically bringing persistent rains to Mindanao, Palawan, and parts of the Visayas during this time of year. PAGASA confirms the Southwest Monsoon is actively affecting Mindanao today, adding another layer of rainfall to areas already contending with Francisco's outer influence.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon — farther from both systems — are under a comparatively calmer but still unsettled sky, with localized thunderstorms capable of producing flash floods during peak intensity.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon outside the Bicol Region can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, driven by localized weather disturbances rather than by Francisco directly. While this is less intense than conditions in the south, PAGASA still flags the risk of flash floods during any severe thunderstorm episode. Residents should stay alert to sudden downpours, particularly in low-lying and flood-prone areas.
The Bicol Region — particularly the provinces of Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Catanduanes, and Masbate — faces cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms due to the trough of Tropical Storm Francisco. PAGASA explicitly warns of the possibility of flash floods and landslides caused by moderate to at times heavy rains. Residents of upland and coastal Bicol communities should be on heightened alert.
Winds over the rest of Luzon will be light to moderate, blowing from the northeast to southeast. Coastal waters will be slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.8 meters.
Visayas
Eastern Visayas — covering Leyte, Southern Leyte, Samar, Eastern Samar, and Biliran — shares the same trough-driven forecast as Bicol: cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, and a real risk of flash floods and landslides from moderate to heavy rainfall.
The rest of the Visayas — including the Western, Central, and other island provinces — falls under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon, producing similarly cloudy and rainy conditions with the same hazard warnings for flash floods and landslides.
Winds in the eastern sections of Southern Luzon and the Visayas will be light to moderate, coming from the northeast to northwest. Coastal waters here will be slight to moderate, with wave heights between 0.6 and 2.1 meters — the highest range reported nationwide today.
Mindanao
Mindanao and Palawan are under the direct grip of the Southwest Monsoon, bringing cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms across the large southern island and its western neighbor. As in the Visayas and Bicol, PAGASA warns of possible flash floods and landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rains.
Winds over Mindanao, the rest of the Visayas, and Palawan are light to moderate, blowing from the southwest. Coastal waters in these areas are slight to moderate, ranging from 0.6 to 2.1 meters.
Decoding the Warnings: What the Hazard Flags Actually Mean
PAGASA has flagged the risk of flash floods and landslides across Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Mindanao, the rest of the Visayas, and Palawan today. These are not worst-case scenarios — they are conditions that PAGASA considers genuinely possible given the forecast rainfall intensity.
Flash floods develop rapidly — sometimes within minutes of heavy rain — in low-lying areas, riverbanks, and areas with poor drainage. Landslides are most likely on steep slopes, deforested hillsides, and areas with loose or saturated soil. If you live in or must travel through these types of terrain in the affected regions today, treat any prolonged or heavy rain as a signal to move to higher, safer ground immediately.
No tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised for any part of the country as of this bulletin, as Francisco remains more than 1,300 kilometers away. However, PAGASA may issue wind signals as the storm's track becomes clearer in the coming days. For a full explanation of what each warning level means and how to act on it, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What Today's Weather Means for You
Commuters
In Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, expect the possibility of sudden, intense thunderstorms at any point during the day. These can flood major roads and underpasses with little warning. Build extra travel time into your schedule, and avoid crossing flooded streets regardless of how shallow the water appears. In Bicol, Eastern Visayas, and Mindanao, scattered but potentially heavy rains are expected throughout the day — not just in the afternoon — so prepare for wet conditions from morning onward.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Coastal waters are slight to moderate today, with the highest wave heights — up to 2.1 meters — expected in the eastern sections of Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and in Mindanao and Palawan waters. Waves of this height can be hazardous for small outrigger vessels. Fisherfolk in these areas are strongly advised to assess sea conditions carefully before heading out, and to stay within safe distances from shore. Those already at sea should monitor PAGASA updates closely.
Farmers
The combination of Francisco's trough and the Southwest Monsoon means sustained rainfall in Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Mindanao, and Palawan. Farmers in these areas should secure crops and equipment that could be damaged by strong winds or flooding. In areas prone to soil erosion, today's rains may also affect soil stability. Those in low-lying agricultural lands should check drainage conditions before the heaviest rains arrive.
Students, Parents, and School Administrators
With flash flood risks flagged in multiple regions, parents and school administrators in Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Mindanao, and Palawan should monitor local government advisories for any class suspensions. Even in areas not under explicit hazard warnings, thunderstorms can develop quickly. Children should not be allowed to walk through or play in flooded streets or waterways.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Teams
Workers in outdoor or elevated construction settings in the Visayas, Bicol, and Mindanao face elevated risk today from lightning associated with thunderstorms, as well as reduced visibility during heavy rain. Supervisors should have a clear protocol for halting outdoor work when thunderstorms approach, and workers should avoid open, elevated, or metal-heavy environments during lightning activity.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 34.4°C at 11:00 AM yesterday, with a minimum of 26.6°C at 5:00 AM. Relative humidity ranged from a high of 93% to a low of 53%.
While Metro Manila will not see the heaviest rains today, the combination of high temperatures and high humidity means the heat will feel oppressive, particularly during dry spells in the morning. Stay hydrated, limit strenuous outdoor activities during midday hours, and seek shade or air-conditioned environments when possible.
Sunrise in Metro Manila today is at 5:28 AM and sunset at 6:28 PM. The moon rises at 11:20 AM and sets at 11:42 PM, with 46% illumination.
Watching Tropical Storm Francisco
While Francisco poses no immediate direct landfall threat at this time, its current track — west-northwestward at 25 km/h — means Filipinos should not treat it as a distant non-issue. The storm's trough is already producing hazardous weather in Bicol and Eastern Visayas from more than 1,300 kilometers away. PAGASA will continue to monitor Francisco's movement and will issue updated forecasts and any necessary warnings as the situation develops. Readers are strongly encouraged to check PAGASA's official updates regularly throughout the day and in the coming days.
Bottom line: If you are in Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Mindanao, or Palawan today, treat this as a high-rain day from start to finish — not just the afternoon. Stay away from swollen rivers, avoid flood-prone areas, and heed any local evacuation orders immediately. Flash floods and landslides are a genuine risk where moderate to heavy rain is expected.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.