MANILA, June 20, 2026 — Millions of Filipinos from the eastern seaboard of the Visayas down through much of Mindanao face a heightened risk of flash floods and landslides on Saturday as the trough of Tropical Storm Mekkhala pushes heavy rainfall into southern parts of the country. At the same time, the southwest monsoon is drenching western Mindanao, while the rest of the Philippines braces for the possibility of sudden, localized downpours. The state weather bureau PAGASA issued its 24-hour public weather forecast at 4:00 PM today, Saturday, June 20, 2026, valid through 4:00 PM on Sunday, June 21.
What is driving today's weather?
Two separate weather systems are at work today. The first is the trough of Tropical Storm Mekkhala — a trough is essentially an elongated zone of low pressure that extends outward from a storm's center, funneling clouds and rainfall well beyond where the storm itself sits. Even though Mekkhala remains far from Philippine shores, its trough is long enough to reach and soak the eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao.
As of 3:00 PM Saturday, PAGASA placed Mekkhala at approximately 1,480 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon, centered near 14.3°N, 136.4°E — well outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). The storm carries maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near its center with gusts up to 105 km/h, and it is moving westward at 15 km/h. PAGASA will continue to monitor its track.
The second system is the southwest monsoon, locally known as habagat. The habagat is the seasonal wind pattern that brings warm, moisture-laden air from the southwest across the country each year from roughly June through September. When it is active, it can pour sustained rainfall over western and southern Mindanao — and today it is doing exactly that over the Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, SOCCSKSARGEN, and Lanao del Norte.
Elsewhere — including Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon and the Visayas not already under the storm's trough — localized thunderstorms are the main threat. These are storm cells that build up from heat and atmospheric instability rather than a large organized system. They can erupt quickly and intensely, but are generally isolated and shorter-lived.
Region-by-region forecast
Luzon
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon should expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, generated by localized convective activity. While no widespread, sustained heavy rainfall is forecast for Luzon today, PAGASA warns that flash floods and landslides remain possible during severe thunderstorm episodes — a reminder that even brief but intense downpours can overwhelm drainage systems and trigger sudden flooding. Winds over Luzon will be light to moderate, blowing from the northeast to southeast direction. Coastal waters along Luzon will be slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.2 meters.
Visayas
Eastern Visayas and Southern Leyte are under the direct influence of Mekkhala's trough and will see cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms. PAGASA explicitly warns of possible flash floods and landslides in these areas due to moderate to at times heavy rainfall. Residents in low-lying areas and on slopes should remain alert. Coastal waters across the Visayas will be slight to moderate, with wave heights reaching up to 1.8 meters — the highest in today's forecast — driven by northeast to northwest winds of light to moderate intensity. Fisherfolk and small boat operators in the region should take particular care.
Mindanao
Mindanao is bearing the brunt of today's weather with two systems affecting the island simultaneously. Caraga and Davao Region are being hit by the trough of Tropical Storm Mekkhala, producing cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, and carrying the same risk of flash floods and landslides from moderate to at times heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM (Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao), SOCCSKSARGEN, and Lanao del Norte are under the influence of the southwest monsoon, which is also generating cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms — again with the risk of flash floods and landslides. The rest of Mindanao not covered by either of these two systems can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms from localized activity. Winds over the rest of Mindanao blow from the southwest to west, also at light to moderate speeds, with coastal waters slight to moderate and waves of 0.6 to 1.2 meters.
Decoding PAGASA's warnings
PAGASA's forecast today does not place any part of the Philippines under a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal, as Tropical Storm Mekkhala remains outside PAR. However, the agency is flagging a meaningful hazard: the risk of flash floods and landslides from moderate to heavy rainfall in Eastern Visayas, Southern Leyte, Caraga, Davao Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, SOCCSKSARGEN, and Lanao del Norte. Flash floods can develop very quickly — sometimes within minutes of intense rainfall — and landslides can occur on hillsides and mountainous terrain with little warning.
Even in areas facing only localized thunderstorms, such as Metro Manila and most of Luzon, PAGASA notes that flash floods are possible during severe episodes. A localized thunderstorm may seem routine, but a particularly intense cell can dump a large volume of rain in a very short time over a small area, overwhelming drainage and causing sudden street flooding.
If you want a fuller explanation of how PAGASA's different warning levels work — including rainfall color-coded alerts and storm wind signals — read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What it means for you
Commuters
If you are commuting in Metro Manila or any major city today, carry an umbrella or raincoat and allow extra travel time. Localized thunderstorms can erupt without much warning and cause rapid street flooding even on clear mornings. In Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Region, avoid crossing flooded roads or rivers — floodwaters can rise deceptively fast and run stronger than they appear. If your usual route passes through low-lying or flood-prone areas, identify an alternative now, before rain begins.
Fisherfolk and small boat operators
Coastal waters across the entire country are forecast to be slight to moderate today, with wave heights up to 1.8 meters in Visayas waters. While those conditions are not classified as dangerous for larger vessels, small boats and bancas can be seriously affected by 1.5- to 1.8-meter waves. Operators in Visayas waters, in particular, should assess conditions carefully before heading out, and stay close to shore if conditions deteriorate. Those in Caraga and Davao coastal areas should be aware that the storm trough may intensify rainfall and wind gusts on short notice.
Farmers
Farmers in Caraga, Davao Region, Eastern Visayas, and Southern Leyte should watch out for potential flooding in low-lying agricultural areas. Secure livestock and equipment that could be affected by flash floods. In western Mindanao — Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, SOCCSKSARGEN, and Lanao del Norte — sustained rainfall from the southwest monsoon means soil may already be saturated; additional rain raises the risk of waterlogging and runoff damage to crops. Farmers on hillside or terraced areas should also monitor for signs of soil movement or landslide risk.
Students, parents, and schools
Parents sending children to school on Sunday should monitor PAGASA updates early in the morning, particularly in the heavily affected regions of Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao. If there is active heavy rainfall in your area, check for any local government suspension announcements. Even in Metro Manila, sudden severe thunderstorms can disrupt afternoon dismissal — plan pickup times with flexibility.
Outdoor workers and construction crews
Workers in open areas — construction sites, agricultural fields, and roadworks — in all affected regions should follow site safety protocols for electrical storms. Thunderstorm activity raises the risk of lightning strikes; seek shelter in a sturdy structure if a thunderstorm approaches. In the Visayas and Mindanao regions under the storm trough or monsoon, consider whether outdoor work in exposed or elevated areas is safe to continue during periods of heavy rain.
Temperature outlook
PAGASA recorded a maximum temperature of 34.4°C at 11:00 AM and a minimum of 26.6°C at 5:00 AM at its weather station in Science Garden, Diliman, Quezon City, for the 24-hour period ending at 4:00 PM today. Relative humidity reached a high of 93% and a low of 53% over the same period. The high humidity combined with warm daytime temperatures means that even areas not seeing heavy rain today may feel muggy and uncomfortable, and outdoor workers in Metro Manila should stay hydrated and take breaks in shaded or air-conditioned areas.
Tides and astronomical information for Metro Manila
For reference, PAGASA — courtesy of NAMRIA — provides the following tidal predictions for Manila Bay on Sunday, June 21: a high tide of 1.12 meters at 2:33 PM and a low tide of 0.16 meters at 10:35 PM. Sunrise tomorrow is at 5:28 AM and sunset today is at 6:27 PM. The moon rises at 11:20 AM and sets at 11:42 PM tomorrow, with 46% illumination.
Bottom line: Today's most serious weather threat is in eastern Visayas, Southern Leyte, Caraga, Davao Region, and much of western Mindanao, where moderate to heavy rain raises a real risk of flash floods and landslides. If you live or work in any of these areas, stay away from rivers, esteros, and slopes during and after heavy downpours — and don't wait for floodwaters to rise before moving to higher ground. Everyone else should watch for sudden, intense thunderstorms and avoid flood-prone areas during rain.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.