QUEZON CITY, June 16, 2026 — Residents across the Philippines should prepare for scattered thunderstorms throughout the day on Tuesday, with flash floods and landslides possible wherever severe weather develops, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned in its 24-hour public weather forecast issued at 4:00 AM today.
No large-scale weather system such as a typhoon or low-pressure area is currently affecting the country. Instead, two weather drivers are at work: easterly winds pushing moisture into the eastern flanks of Visayas and Mindanao, and localized thunderstorm activity generating rain across the rest of the archipelago — a pattern that is typical of the Philippine summer-to-wet season transition.
While the forecast does not signal a catastrophic weather event, PAGASA's explicit advisory on the potential for flash floods and landslides during severe thunderstorms means Filipinos in low-lying communities, near river systems, and on hilly or mountainous terrain should not be complacent.
National Weather Overview
Conditions nationwide are broadly similar: partly cloudy to cloudy skies, with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms expected at various points during the day. The key difference between areas lies in the cause of those showers. The eastern portions of Visayas and Mindanao are being directly influenced by easterly winds — warm, moisture-laden air currents blowing in from the Pacific — while the rest of the country, including Metro Manila, is subject to rain generated by localized convection, meaning heat and humidity build up during the day until they release as afternoon or evening thunderstorms.
In practical terms, much of the country can expect a mix of sunny intervals and cloudy periods during the morning, with rain showers or thunderstorms becoming more likely in the afternoon and evening. Outdoor activities, travel, and commutes may be disrupted, particularly in urban areas prone to street flooding.
Luzon Forecast
Metro Manila and all provinces across Luzon will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, according to PAGASA. The primary driver of this rainfall is localized thunderstorm activity rather than an organized weather system.
Residents of the National Capital Region, surrounding provinces in CALABARZON and Central Luzon, as well as those in the Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, MIMAROPA, and Bicol Region should be on alert for the possibility of sudden, intense downpours. These can develop quickly, particularly during the warmest part of the afternoon, and may lead to localized street flooding and poor visibility on roads and highways.
PAGASA noted that severe thunderstorms carry the risk of flash floods and landslides. Communities in mountainous provinces such as Benguet, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, and the Bicol highlands should monitor conditions closely and heed any local government advisories.
Winds over Luzon will blow from the southeast to southwest at light to moderate intensity. Coastal waters around Luzon are forecast to be slight to moderate, with wave heights ranging from 0.6 to 1.8 meters. Mariners and fisherfolk should exercise standard caution and monitor sea conditions before heading out.
Visayas Forecast
The Visayas region sees a split forecast on Tuesday. Eastern Visayas — encompassing the provinces of Samar, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, and Biliran — will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, with easterly winds identified as the direct cause.
The rest of the Visayas, including the provinces of the Western Visayas (Region VI) and Central Visayas (Region VII) — covering Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Antique, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Cebu, Bohol, Negros Oriental, and Siquijor — will also see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, but driven by localized thunderstorm development rather than the easterlies.
In both cases, the hazard advisory is the same: severe thunderstorms may produce flash floods and landslides. Residents near rivers and in low-lying coastal areas of Eastern Visayas — a region historically vulnerable to heavy rainfall events — are advised to stay informed through local PAGASA bulletins and local disaster risk reduction offices.
Winds across Visayas will come from the southeast to southwest at light to moderate strength. Wave heights over Visayas coastal waters are forecast at 0.6 to 1.8 meters, described as slight to moderate conditions.
Mindanao Forecast
Several provinces in Mindanao are under the more direct influence of the easterlies. Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Davao Oriental — all situated along or near the eastern seaboard of Mindanao — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms caused by these easterly winds.
The rest of Mindanao, including the provinces of the Davao Region (excluding Davao Oriental), Northern Mindanao, the Zamboanga Peninsula, SOCCSKSARGEN, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms from localized thunderstorm activity.
As with the rest of the country, PAGASA warns that severe thunderstorms in any part of Mindanao may cause flash floods and landslides. The provinces along Mindanao's eastern coast — particularly Surigao del Sur and Davao Oriental — should be alert given their direct exposure to the easterlies, which can sustain rainfall activity through much of the day.
Winds over Mindanao will blow from the east to northeast at light to moderate intensity, differing slightly from the southeast-to-southwest pattern seen over Luzon and Visayas. Coastal waters around Mindanao are forecast to be slight to moderate, with wave heights between 0.6 and 1.2 meters.
Temperature and Humidity
PAGASA's reference temperature readings, recorded at the Science Garden weather station in Diliman, Quezon City, reflect the warm and humid conditions typical of this time of year. During the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM on Monday, June 15, the maximum temperature recorded was 31.0°C at 2:00 PM, while the minimum was 26.0°C at 6:30 AM.
Relative humidity ranged from a high of 91% — indicating very moist air — to a low of 64%. These figures underscore the muggy conditions that fuel afternoon thunderstorm development across the country.
While these readings are specific to Metro Manila, they are broadly representative of the warm, humid weather pattern affecting much of the lowland Philippines at this time. Residents are reminded to stay hydrated, especially during outdoor activities, and to seek shelter promptly when skies darken and thunder is heard.
Astronomical and Tidal Information
For Metro Manila today, the sun will rise at 5:27 AM and set at 6:26 PM. The moon, currently at just 3% illumination — nearly a new moon — rose at 6:18 AM and will set at 7:53 PM, meaning nights will be quite dark, which is a practical consideration for communities without strong street lighting during evening thunderstorms.
Manila Bay tidal data, courtesy of the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA), shows a high tide of 1.54 meters at 9:56 AM and a low tide of -0.32 meters at 6:52 PM today. Coastal communities around Manila Bay should be mindful of these tidal levels, particularly in combination with any storm surge or heavy runoff that may accompany severe thunderstorms.
Safety Reminders
PAGASA's hazard advisory is clear: anywhere severe thunderstorms develop today, there is a risk of flash floods and landslides. The agency's guidance applies nationwide. Here is what residents should keep in mind:
Avoid flood-prone and low-lying areas during heavy rain, particularly in urban areas with known drainage problems. Stay away from riverbanks and steep slopes, especially in provinces with mountainous terrain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads or waterways, even if the water appears shallow. Keep emergency contacts and local DRRMO numbers accessible.
Motorists traveling on national highways through mountainous areas — including passes in the Cordillera, Quezon province, and mountain roads in Mindanao — should check road conditions before departure and allow extra travel time.
"Tracking the sky… helping the country." — PAGASA, Weather and Flood Forecasting Center
This forecast was issued by PAGASA's Weather and Flood Forecasting Center, located at Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue, Barangay Central, Quezon City. It was prepared by forecaster VCT and checked by ADA.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.