MANILA, July 31, 2026 — Millions of Filipinos across the Visayas and parts of Mindanao should brace for a wet and stormy Friday as a trough of a Low-Pressure Area drives scattered rains and thunderstorms across the central and southern Philippines, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). The agency's 24-hour public weather forecast, issued at 4:00 AM on Friday, July 31, 2026, and valid until 4:00 AM on August 1, warns of possible flash floods and landslides in the hardest-hit regions.
The rest of the country — including Metro Manila — is not entirely spared, as localized thunderstorms may still develop and bring sudden heavy downpours capable of triggering flash floods in low-lying and flood-prone areas.
What Is Driving the Weather Today
The main weather driver on Friday is the trough of a Low-Pressure Area (LPA) affecting the Visayas and the eastern section of Mindanao. In plain terms, a low-pressure area is a region of the atmosphere where air pressure is lower than its surroundings, causing warm, moist air to rise and form clouds and rain. A trough is an elongated extension of that low-pressure zone — essentially a tail or arm of the system that can spread rainfall over a wide swath of territory even without a full storm forming overhead. Because this trough is positioned over the central and southeastern Philippines, it is funneling moisture and instability into those regions, producing the cloudy skies, scattered rains, and thunderstorms that PAGASA is forecasting for Friday.
For the rest of the country — including Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, and areas outside the trough's direct path — localized thunderstorms remain possible, fueled by the afternoon heat and atmospheric moisture typical of the Philippine wet season.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Visayas
The Visayas is among the most directly affected areas on Friday. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms across the region, all caused by the trough of the LPA. The agency explicitly warns of possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rains. Residents in Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, and Western Visayas — particularly those living near rivers, coastlines, and hilly or mountainous terrain — should be on alert throughout the day. Masbate, which straddles the boundary between the Visayas and Luzon, is also placed under the same forecast category and faces the same risks.
Winds over the western section of Visayas are light to moderate, blowing from the southwest to northwest. Coastal waters are slight to moderate, with wave heights between 0.6 and 1.5 meters.
The rest of Visayas can expect light to moderate winds blowing from the northeast to northwest, with coastal waters at 0.6 to 1.2 meters.
Mindanao
Much of Mindanao is also firmly in the path of the LPA trough. PAGASA places Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Davao Region, Sarangani, and South Cotabato under the forecast of cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms. As in the Visayas, the primary hazards are flash floods and landslides from moderate to at times heavy rainfall. Communities near river systems, steep hillsides, and low-lying coastal zones in these regions face the greatest exposure.
Winds over Mindanao are light to moderate, coming from the southwest to northwest, with coastal waters running slight to moderate at wave heights of 0.6 to 1.5 meters. Fisherfolk and boat operators should factor in these sea conditions before heading out.
Luzon (Including Metro Manila)
Luzon, including Metro Manila, is outside the direct influence of the LPA trough on Friday, but residents should not assume a dry day. PAGASA forecasts partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms driven by localized conditions — meaning pop-up afternoon storms are possible nearly anywhere in Luzon. The agency notes that flash floods or landslides remain possible during severe thunderstorms, a reminder that even isolated events can be dangerous when they are intense.
Southern Luzon experiences light to moderate winds from the northeast to northwest, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.2 meters along its coasts. The rest of Luzon sees light to moderate winds from the east to southeast, with wave heights also at 0.6 to 1.2 meters.
Decoding the Warnings: What the Hazard Advisories Mean for You
PAGASA's forecast for Friday does not include tropical cyclone wind signals or color-coded rainfall warnings — but the agency does flag two specific hazard advisories that residents should take seriously.
The first is the risk of flash floods or landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rains, issued for the Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Davao Region, Masbate, Sarangani, and South Cotabato. This means that even without a named storm, the sustained and scattered nature of the rainfall is significant enough that waterways can rise rapidly and slopes can become unstable. Residents in these areas should avoid crossing rivers or streams during or after heavy rainfall, and those on or near hillsides should watch for signs of ground movement.
The second advisory covers the rest of the country, including Metro Manila: flash floods or landslides are possible during severe thunderstorms. While this is a lower-level concern than the first group, it is not trivial. A single intense afternoon thunderstorm is enough to flood low-lying streets or trigger localized slides in vulnerable areas.
Not sure how PAGASA's warning system works? Read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings for a full breakdown of rainfall color codes, storm signals, and heat index categories.
What It Means for You
Commuters
In Metro Manila and across Luzon, afternoon thunderstorms can materialize quickly and cause street flooding in low-lying areas. If you are commuting during the afternoon or evening hours on Friday, leave earlier than usual or be prepared to shelter in place and wait out heavy downpours before traveling. In Visayas and the affected parts of Mindanao, rains may persist throughout the day — not just in the afternoon — so plan your travel around the possibility of flooded roads and reduced visibility.
Fisherfolk and Small Boat Operators
Coastal waters nationwide are forecast at slight to moderate levels — wave heights of 0.6 to 1.5 meters depending on the area. While these conditions are not extreme, small and motorized banca boats can still be at risk, especially near the Visayas and eastern Mindanao where the LPA trough is active. Thunderstorms can develop rapidly at sea and bring sudden strong winds. PAGASA urges caution. If in doubt, stay ashore.
Farmers
Farmers in the Visayas and the affected Mindanao provinces should be prepared for moderate to heavy rains that may affect field access, harvest schedules, and low-lying crops. Flash flooding in agricultural areas can damage standing crops and erode topsoil. In Luzon, isolated storms may still bring localized flooding in farmlands near flood-prone river systems.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents and school administrators in Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Davao Region, Masbate, Sarangani, and South Cotabato should monitor local government announcements regarding class suspensions. Scattered rains and thunderstorms can affect travel safety for students, especially those who walk or use public transportation. Ensure children have rain gear and that travel routes are free from flooding before sending them out.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Teams
Workers in outdoor industries — construction, agriculture, delivery, utilities — in the Visayas and affected Mindanao areas face the highest exposure on Friday. Moderate to heavy rains and thunderstorms create hazardous conditions including reduced visibility, slippery surfaces, lightning risk, and the possibility of flash floods at work sites near waterways or slopes. Site supervisors should conduct safety briefings and establish clear protocols for suspending work during thunderstorms.
Temperature and Heat Outlook
PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden, Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 32.7°C at 2:00 PM yesterday and a minimum of 23.5°C at 5:00 AM. Relative humidity peaked at 96% and dropped to a minimum of 51%. While no heat index advisory has been issued for Friday, the combination of high temperatures and high humidity typical of the Philippine wet season means that the "feels like" temperature in Metro Manila and other urban areas may be significantly higher than the recorded air temperature during drier spells of the day. Stay hydrated and avoid prolonged exposure to midday heat, particularly if skies clear temporarily before afternoon storms develop.
For reference, the Manila Bay tidal forecast from NAMRIA shows a high tide of 1.34 meters at 10:45 AM and a low tide of 0.09 meters at 7:06 PM today. Sunrise is at 5:39 AM and sunset at 6:26 PM. The moon is 96% illuminated, with moonrise at 7:40 PM and moonset at 6:48 AM.
Bottom Line
If you are in the Visayas or the affected parts of Mindanao, treat Friday as a high-rain day from morning to night: stay away from rivers, swollen waterways, and unstable slopes, and monitor your local government's advisories for any emergency alerts. Everywhere else in the Philippines, prepare for the possibility of sudden, intense afternoon thunderstorms — they may be isolated, but they can still cause flash flooding in low-lying areas. Do not wait for a typhoon signal to take the rain seriously.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.