QUEZON CITY — Large sections of the Philippines face the risk of flash floods and landslides on Thursday, November 5, 2026, as easterlies push scattered rains and thunderstorms across Bicol, Eastern Visayas, and several island and northeastern Mindanao provinces, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned in its 4:00 AM bulletin. Meanwhile, the Northeast Monsoon keeps northern Luzon under cloudy to partly cloudy skies with lighter rains, and Metro Manila braces for isolated showers that could still turn severe.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
Two separate weather systems are shaping conditions across the country today, according to PAGASA.
The Northeast Monsoon — locally known as amihan — is a seasonal wind system that blows from the northeast across the Pacific and the South China Sea toward the Philippines. As cooler, moisture-laden air moves over the country's northern landmasses, it produces cloud cover and light to moderate rainfall, particularly over Batanes, the Babuyan Islands, the Ilocos Region, the Cordillera Administrative Region, and the rest of Cagayan Valley. Because the air mass is relatively stable in these areas today, PAGASA projects no significant weather impacts for the north.
The easterlies — winds blowing in from the Pacific Ocean toward the eastern seaboard of the Philippines — are responsible for the more unsettled weather affecting the rest of the country. As warm, humid air from the Pacific interacts with the terrain of central and southern Luzon, the Visayas, and northeastern Mindanao, it fuels cloud build-up, scattered showers, and thunderstorm activity. It is this system that PAGASA identifies as the driver behind today's flash flood and landslide threats.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Northern Luzon
Batanes and the Babuyan Islands will be under cloudy skies with light rains, produced by the Northeast Monsoon. PAGASA projects no significant impact for these northernmost islands today.
The Ilocos Region, the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), and the rest of Cagayan Valley can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains, also driven by the Northeast Monsoon. No significant hazards are expected for these areas.
Central and Southern Luzon, and Island Provinces
Metro Manila and the rest of the country not specifically listed will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driven by easterlies. While the word "isolated" suggests that heavy rain will not be widespread, PAGASA explicitly notes that severe thunderstorms in these areas can still trigger flash floods or landslides.
Marinduque, Romblon, and Oriental Mindoro — island and coastal provinces often exposed to Pacific-side moisture — are grouped with the highest-impact areas in today's forecast. These provinces face cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, with moderate to heavy rainfall raising flash flood and landslide risks.
The Bicol Region — covering the provinces of Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Catanduanes, and Masbate — is among the most significantly affected areas today. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, with the possibility of flash floods or landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rains. Residents in Bicol's mountainous inland communities and those living near rivers and coastal lowlands should take precautions.
Visayas
Eastern Visayas — comprising Leyte, Southern Leyte, Samar, Eastern Samar, and Northern Samar — is one of the primary impact areas in today's forecast. PAGASA projects cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms there, carrying the risk of flash floods or landslides from moderate to at times heavy rainfall.
The rest of the Visayas falls under the broader national category: partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, also driven by easterlies, with the caveat that severe thunderstorms remain capable of causing localised flash flooding.
Mindanao
Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte, both located along Mindanao's exposed northeastern coastline, are specifically singled out in today's bulletin. These areas will experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, with moderate to at times heavy rains that could trigger flash floods or landslides. Communities in upland and riverine areas of these provinces should remain vigilant.
The rest of Mindanao falls under the general easterlies-driven forecast: partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms and the possibility of flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorm episodes.
Decoding the Warnings
PAGASA has not raised any tropical cyclone wind signal for today's bulletin. However, the agency has identified specific areas where moderate to at times heavy rainfall poses a genuine risk of flash floods and landslides. This hazard language is PAGASA's way of telling residents in those zones that the rainfall intensity — not a named storm — is enough to destabilise slopes and overwhelm drainage systems.
If you are in Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Dinagat Islands, or Surigao del Norte, treat this warning seriously: avoid riverbanks, steep hillsides, and low-lying flood-prone areas during periods of heavy rain. Even areas under "isolated thunderstorms" — such as Metro Manila and other parts of the country — are not entirely safe from sudden, intense downpours. For a full explanation of PAGASA's warning levels and what each one requires you to do, see our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What It Means for You
Commuters
If you travel through Metro Manila or any of the high-impact provinces today, expect the possibility of sudden heavy downpours and reduced visibility during thunderstorm episodes. Build extra travel time into your schedule, avoid flood-prone underpasses and low-lying roads during or immediately after rain, and check local flood advisories before leaving home — particularly in Bicol, Eastern Visayas, and northeastern Mindanao.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
PAGASA forecasts light to moderate winds blowing northeast to east over Luzon and Visayas waters, with coastal seas running slight to moderate — wave heights of 0.6 to 2.5 meters. Over Mindanao waters, winds are also light to moderate with coastal seas slight to moderate at 0.6 to 1.5 meters. Small-boat operators should take note that "moderate" seas at the higher end of the range can make navigation challenging and uncomfortable. Those in the waters off Eastern Visayas, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte should exercise added caution given the thunderstorm activity onshore and the potential for squalls at sea. When in doubt, stay ashore.
Farmers
Agricultural communities in Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Oriental Mindoro, and northeastern Mindanao should prepare for possible disruptions from heavy rain. Flash flood risk means low-lying cropland and irrigation systems could be affected. Secure equipment, check drainage around fields, and avoid working in areas prone to landslides during active thunderstorm periods. In the northeast monsoon-affected north — Ilocos, CAR, and Cagayan Valley — lighter, more manageable rainfall is expected today.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Classes in the high-impact provinces — Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte — may be disrupted by heavy rain or localised flooding. Parents and school administrators in these areas should monitor local government advisories on class suspensions. Even in Metro Manila, isolated but potentially severe thunderstorms warrant checking official announcements before the morning school rush.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Teams
Workers in open-air environments across the high-impact areas should be prepared to suspend operations if thunderstorms develop, particularly in Bicol and Eastern Visayas. Lightning is a real hazard during thunderstorm activity, and steep terrain in Bicol, Romblon, and the Surigao area increases the risk of landslides during heavy rain. Supervisors should have clear protocols for evacuating workers from exposed sites at short notice.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 32.3°C at 12:00 noon and a minimum of 24.8°C at 5:00 AM for the 24-hour period ending 8:00 PM yesterday. Relative humidity ranged from a high of 94% at 5:00 AM to a low of 50% at 11:00 AM. These figures reflect conditions in Metro Manila's urban core and serve as a general reference point; temperatures and humidity across other parts of the country will vary by elevation, location, and cloud cover today.
Residents should stay hydrated and take breaks from physical exertion during the warmest parts of the day.
Tide and Astronomical Information for Metro Manila
For reference, NAMRIA-courtesy tide data for Manila Bay on November 5, 2026 shows a high tide of 0.82 meters at 6:18 AM and a low tide of 0.11 meters at 1:50 PM, with an evening high of 0.60 meters at 8:31 PM. Sunrise is at 5:53 AM and sunset at 5:26 PM. The moon, at 15% illumination, rises at 2:14 AM and sets at 2:37 PM. Coastal communities in Manila Bay should factor these tide levels into their preparations, particularly if heavy rain coincides with high-tide windows.
Bottom Line
If you are in Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Dinagat Islands, or Surigao del Norte today, stay away from riverbanks, low-lying areas, and steep slopes — moderate to heavy thunderstorm rains make flash floods and landslides a real and present danger. Even outside these high-impact zones, including Metro Manila, isolated severe thunderstorms can still cause sudden flooding, so keep an eye on the sky and local flood alerts throughout the day.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.