QUEZON CITY — Thunderstorms capable of triggering flash floods and landslides threaten much of the Philippines on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as the northeast monsoon affects the country's northern reaches, according to a forecast issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) at 4:00 AM today, valid until 4:00 AM on November 4.
While the far north contends with the monsoon's direct influence — bringing clouds and light rains but no major hazards — Metro Manila and virtually every other part of the country faces the threat of isolated but intense thunderstorms that can erupt quickly and produce dangerous local flooding.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
The dominant weather system shaping conditions across the Philippines today is the northeast monsoon, known locally as "amihan." This is a seasonal wind pattern that blows cool, moisture-laden air from the northeast across the archipelago. When amihan is strong enough, it brings persistent clouds, light rain, and breezy conditions — particularly to areas directly in its path, such as the northern and eastern coasts of Luzon.
In areas not directly under the monsoon's strongest influence — including the Visayas, Mindanao, and much of Central and Southern Luzon — the atmosphere remains unstable enough for localized thunderstorms to develop during the day, driven by heat and moisture interacting in the lower atmosphere. These are not organized storm systems, but they can still be intense and fast-moving, capable of dumping heavy rain over a small area in a short time.
Separately, PAGASA is also tracking Severe Tropical Storm In-Fa (2631), which is located 1,870 kilometers east of Extreme Northern Luzon — well outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) — as of 3:00 AM today. The storm carries maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near its center and gusts of up to 135 km/h, and is moving west-northwestward at 10 km/h. In-Fa is not affecting Philippine weather at this time and carries no active wind signals or rainfall warnings over any part of the country.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Northern Luzon: Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Cagayan Valley
These areas fall directly under the influence of the northeast monsoon today. Residents can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. PAGASA does not flag significant impacts or hazards for this zone — meaning the rain, when it falls, is expected to be light and manageable. It will feel breezy, particularly along coastal communities in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and the northern Cagayan coast.
Metro Manila and the Rest of the Country
This category covers an enormous swath of the Philippines — from Central and Southern Luzon through the entire Visayas and all of Mindanao — and the forecast is broadly similar: partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. The trigger is localized atmospheric convection rather than a single large weather system.
Critically, PAGASA notes that these thunderstorms carry the potential for flash floods and landslides when they occur at their most severe. This is an important qualifier — not every part of this wide area will experience a thunderstorm today, but those that do may see rapid and dangerous flooding, particularly in areas near river channels, drainage systems, or steep terrain.
Provinces and cities across Central Luzon (including Pampanga, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, and Tarlac), CALABARZON (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon), MIMAROPA, the Bicol Region, the Western and Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, and all of Mindanao — including Davao, Zamboanga, the Caraga region, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) — all fall within this forecast zone.
Decoding the Warnings: What the Hazard Language Means
PAGASA's forecast for Metro Manila and the rest of the country explicitly flags "possible flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms." This is not a formal color-coded rainfall warning, but it is a clear advisory that conditions today are favorable for dangerous, fast-moving flooding if a strong thunderstorm develops over your area.
Flash floods can occur with little warning and in areas that are not typically prone to flooding. Landslide risk rises when heavy rain saturates hillside soil quickly. If you live near a waterway, a steep slope, or in a low-lying area that has flooded before, this advisory warrants attention and a readiness plan.
No tropical cyclone wind signals are in effect anywhere in the Philippines today. In-Fa remains far outside PAR and carries no warnings over Philippine territory.
If you want to better understand how PAGASA's various warning systems work — including rainfall color codes, storm signals, and heat index categories — read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
Wind and Sea Conditions
Wind and coastal water conditions vary between Northern Luzon and the rest of the country today.
Over Extreme Northern Luzon, winds are moderate and blowing from the northeast. Coastal waters in this area are described as moderate, with wave heights of 1.2 to 2.5 meters. These are not extreme conditions, but they are significant enough to affect small vessels.
Over the rest of the country, winds are light to moderate, coming from the northeast to east. Coastal waters are slight to moderate, with wave heights ranging from 0.6 to 2.1 meters. Conditions are generally more manageable than in the north, though the upper end of that wave-height range still warrants care.
What This Means for You
Commuters
In Metro Manila and most urban centers nationwide, scattered thunderstorms can develop during the day — particularly in the afternoon when temperatures peak and atmospheric instability is highest. Expect the possibility of sudden, heavy downpours that can flood roads and disrupt traffic quickly. If you travel by motorcycle or on foot, carry rain gear. Allow extra travel time during afternoon peak hours, and avoid crossing flooded roads or underpasses regardless of how shallow the water appears.
Fisherfolk and Small Boat Operators
PAGASA's sea-state data warrants particular caution for those operating in Extreme Northern Luzon waters, where wave heights can reach up to 2.5 meters under moderate coastal water conditions. The rest of the country's waters are classified as slight to moderate, with waves up to 2.1 meters at the high end. Small and bancas-type vessels should assess sea conditions carefully before departure. Those already at sea in the north should monitor conditions closely.
Farmers
Isolated thunderstorms bring the risk of localized heavy rain that can cause crop damage through flooding or waterlogging, particularly in low-lying agricultural areas. Farmers in areas with maturing or harvested crops should consider securing produce ahead of possible afternoon thunderstorms.
Students, Parents, and Schools
With thunderstorms possible across Metro Manila and most of the country, parents and school administrators should have contingency plans ready for afternoon dismissal. Fast-developing thunderstorms in urban areas can produce flooding and dangerous lightning. Stay informed through official PAGASA bulletins and local government alerts throughout the day.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery personnel, and others working outdoors across most of the Philippines should be prepared for sudden weather changes, particularly in the mid-morning to afternoon hours when convective thunderstorms are most likely to develop. Seek shelter immediately at the first sign of lightning — do not wait for heavy rain to begin before taking cover.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City recorded the following extremes for the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM on November 2:
- Maximum temperature: 34.6°C, recorded at 1:00 PM
- Minimum temperature: 24.7°C, recorded at 4:30 AM
- Maximum relative humidity: 94%, recorded at 5:00 AM
- Minimum relative humidity: 48%, recorded at 1:00 PM
The high relative humidity in the early morning hours, combined with afternoon temperatures approaching 35°C, reflects conditions that can feel significantly hotter than the thermometer reading suggests. Heat stress remains a concern for those working or spending extended time outdoors during peak daytime hours.
Tides and Astronomical Information for Metro Manila
For Metro Manila today (November 3), PAGASA — citing data courtesy of the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) — notes a high tide of 1.04 meters at 3:36 AM and a low tide of -0.08 meters at 12:45 PM. Sunrise is at 5:52 AM and sunset at 5:27 PM. The moon rises at 12:27 AM and sets at 1:20 PM, with an illumination of 32%.
Bottom Line
The single most important thing you should do today: Prepare for a sudden, potentially severe thunderstorm wherever you are — outside of the immediate Ilocos-CAR-Cagayan corridor — and stay away from flooded roads, low-lying areas, and hillsides if heavy rain hits your community. Check PAGASA updates throughout the day, as conditions can change quickly.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.