QUEZON CITY, October 4, 2026 — The outer weather disturbance linked to Typhoon Choi-Wan is making its presence felt across the central and southern Philippines this Sunday, pushing rain and thunderstorms into large parts of Visayas and Mindanao, according to the 4:00 AM forecast issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). While the typhoon itself remains far from Philippine shores, its trough — a long band of disturbed, rainy weather that extends outward from the storm — is enough to trigger serious downpours capable of causing flash floods and landslides in affected communities.
The rest of the country, including Metro Manila, is not entirely in the clear. Localized thunderstorms may bring isolated but potentially severe rainshowers to any part of Luzon and areas not already under the trough's influence. PAGASA reminds the public that even isolated storms can be dangerous when they hit hard and fast.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
The primary driver of conditions in Visayas and Mindanao today is the trough of Typhoon Choi-Wan. A trough is essentially a corridor of low atmospheric pressure that extends outward from a typhoon's center. Think of it as the storm's long arm reaching toward the Philippines even when the storm's eye is still thousands of kilometers away. This trough funnels moisture and unstable air into the affected regions, producing the kind of persistent, heavy rainfall that can saturate hillsides and overwhelm drainage systems.
Typhoon Choi-Wan (internationally designated 2627) is currently outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), positioned approximately 2,595 km east of extreme northern Luzon at coordinates 20.9°N, 146.8°E as of 3:00 AM today. The storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near its center, with gusts reaching up to 190 km/h, and is moving north-northeastward at 15 km/h — tracking away from the Philippines. No tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised over any part of the country.
For Metro Manila and the rest of the country not under the trough's direct influence, localized thunderstorms are the weather driver for today. These develop from daytime heating and atmospheric instability and can pop up with little warning, producing short but intense bursts of rain.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Mindanao
Residents across Mindanao should prepare for a rainy and potentially stormy Sunday. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms across the island group throughout the day, all driven by the trough of Typhoon Choi-Wan. The primary hazard is possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to at-times heavy rainfall. Coastal winds are blowing from the west to southwest at light to moderate speeds, with coastal wave heights running at 0.6 to 1.2 meters — classified as slight to moderate.
Visayas
Large portions of the Visayas fall under the direct influence of the Choi-Wan trough today. Specifically, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Central Visayas, and Southern Leyte are all forecast to experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms. As in Mindanao, the hazard is possible flash floods or landslides when rainfall becomes heavy. Coastal winds over Visayas are blowing from the northeast to northwest at light to moderate intensity, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.2 meters.
Parts of the Visayas not specifically named — such as Eastern Visayas provinces outside Southern Leyte, and Samar — fall under the broader nationwide forecast of partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms, though residents there should remain watchful given proximity to the trough.
Luzon
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms today, produced by localized weather systems. While conditions here are generally lighter than in the Visayas and Mindanao, PAGASA notes that flash floods or landslides remain possible during severe thunderstorm episodes. Coastal waters around Luzon are light to moderate, with wave heights between 0.6 and 1.2 meters — navigable for most vessels but still requiring caution. Winds are blowing from the northeast to northwest direction.
Decoding the Warnings: What PAGASA's Hazard Flags Mean for You
No tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised over any Philippine province as of this bulletin — Typhoon Choi-Wan remains well outside PAR and is moving away from the country. However, PAGASA's forecast does flag two specific hazard risks tied to rainfall: possible flash floods and possible landslides.
These are not formal color-coded rainfall warnings, but they are PAGASA's way of telling communities — particularly those in low-lying coastal areas, near rivers, or on hillsides and mountain slopes — to stay alert. Flash floods can develop within minutes during intense thunderstorms. Landslides become a risk when rainfall saturates loose or steep terrain.
"Cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms" in a PAGASA bulletin means rainfall is not continuous everywhere, but multiple episodes of rain — some of them heavy — are expected throughout the day. It is not a clear-weather forecast with occasional showers; it means periods of genuine, potentially hazardous downpours.
If you want a deeper understanding of what rainfall color warnings, storm signals, and heat index alerts mean in practice, see our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What It Means for You
Commuters
If you are in Mindanao, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Central Visayas, or Southern Leyte, expect rain at multiple points throughout your day. Bring rain gear and allow extra travel time. Be cautious on roads near rivers or in flood-prone urban areas — even a short but heavy downpour can make low-lying streets impassable quickly. In Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, isolated but potentially strong thunderstorms can flare up in the afternoon; keep an eye on the sky if you are commuting during afternoon or early evening hours.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
PAGASA reports slight to moderate coastal waters across the country, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.2 meters. While no gale warning has been issued, fisherfolk in Mindanao and the Visayas should exercise caution given the unsettled weather tied to Choi-Wan's trough. Thunderstorms at sea are especially dangerous for small vessels. If dark clouds or thunder are approaching, return to port immediately — do not wait for conditions to worsen.
Farmers
For farmers in the Visayas and Mindanao, today's rainfall — while a risk for flooding in some areas — may also provide some relief for dry crops. However, those with fields in low-lying or flood-prone areas should monitor water levels closely and, if possible, ensure drainage channels are clear. Farmers in Luzon dealing with rain-sensitive crops should be aware that afternoon thunderstorms, while isolated, can still bring sudden heavy rainfall.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Classes in schools located in flood-prone barangays in the Visayas and Mindanao should be monitored closely. Parents should check with their local government units or school administrators if classes are suspended. The trough-driven rainfall is not a one-time event — it is forecast to persist throughout the day. Even after school hours, conditions may remain unsettled.
Outdoor and Construction Workers
Workers in Mindanao, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Central Visayas, and Southern Leyte face the highest weather risk today. Thunderstorms carry the threat of lightning, which is dangerous for anyone working outdoors or at height. Employers and workers should have a clear protocol to suspend outdoor work when thunder is heard or lightning is visible — do not wait for rain to start before taking shelter.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 31.8°C at 2:00 PM yesterday and a minimum of 24.8°C at 5:00 AM, for the 24-hour period ending 8:00 PM on October 3. Relative humidity ranged from a high of 95% at 5:00 AM to a low of 62% at 2:00 PM. These figures reflect Metro Manila conditions and indicate a warm, humid environment typical of the October transition season — meaning that even on days with intermittent rain, the heat and humidity between storm periods can still feel oppressive.
Tidal and Astronomical Notes for Metro Manila
For those near Manila Bay, PAGASA and NAMRIA report a high tide of 1.2 meters at 2:24 AM today and a low tide of -0.08 meters at 12:35 PM. Sunrise is at 5:46 AM and sunset at 5:44 PM. The moon is at 39% illumination, with moonset at 12:59 PM.
Bottom Line
If you are in Mindanao, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Central Visayas, or Southern Leyte, treat today as a rainy-day alert: the trough of Typhoon Choi-Wan will bring persistent, at-times heavy rain and thunderstorms that can trigger flash floods and landslides. Stay away from rivers, flood-prone areas, and hillsides during and after heavy rain. Even in areas with only isolated thunderstorms — including Metro Manila — move to safe shelter at the first sign of a developing storm. Typhoon Choi-Wan itself poses no direct threat to the Philippines today, but its influence on our weather is real and hazardous.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.