QUEZON CITY — The trough of Super Typhoon Choi-Wan is casting a wide shadow of clouds, rain, and thunderstorms across Visayas and Mindanao on Monday, October 5, 2026, bringing with it the very real threat of flash floods and landslides in affected provinces, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). The agency issued its 24-hour public weather forecast at 4:00 AM today, valid until 4:00 AM on Tuesday, October 6.
While the super typhoon itself remains far from Philippine shores, its reach is already being felt across the central and southern Philippines — a reminder that powerful tropical cyclones do not need to make landfall to disrupt daily life and endanger communities.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
The primary driver of today's unsettled conditions across much of the country is the trough of Super Typhoon Choi-Wan. A trough, in plain terms, is an elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure that extends outward from a tropical cyclone. Think of it as the typhoon's long arm — it draws in moisture and triggers cloud formation, rain, and thunderstorms in areas far removed from the storm's actual center.
As of 3:00 AM today, Super Typhoon Choi-Wan is located approximately 2,605 kilometers east-northeast of extreme northern Luzon, at coordinates 24.6°N, 146.9°E — well outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It is carrying maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h near the center and gusts of up to 240 km/h, and is moving northward at 20 km/h. Despite its distance, its trough is long enough to influence weather conditions over Visayas and Mindanao today.
For Metro Manila and the rest of the country not directly under the trough's influence, localized thunderstorms — weather disturbances that develop independently due to daytime heating and moisture in the atmosphere — are responsible for isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Visayas and Mindanao: Scattered Rains and Thunderstorms
Residents and workers across Mindanao, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Central Visayas, Leyte, and Southern Leyte should prepare for a wet and potentially dangerous day. PAGASA expects cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms throughout the forecast period, caused directly by the trough of Super Typhoon Choi-Wan.
The agency specifically warns that moderate to heavy rains from these conditions could trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in low-lying areas and communities situated on or near hillsides and mountain slopes. Residents in these areas — especially those living near rivers, drainage channels, or elevated terrain — should remain alert and ready to evacuate if local authorities issue advisories.
Coastal waters across Visayas and Mindanao are expected to be moderate to rough, with wave heights of 1.2 to 2.5 meters. These conditions are hazardous for small and motorized bancas.
Luzon and Metro Manila: Isolated Showers and Thunderstorms
Metro Manila and the rest of the country — covering the bulk of Luzon and areas not directly affected by the typhoon's trough — will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms today. These are driven by localized weather systems rather than the typhoon itself.
While conditions are generally less severe than in Visayas and Mindanao, PAGASA notes that flash floods and landslides remain possible during severe thunderstorms. Residents in flood-prone urban areas such as parts of Metro Manila, as well as those in mountainous provinces, should not dismiss the risk simply because the skies look partly clear in the morning — afternoon thunderstorms can develop quickly.
Winds across Luzon are light to moderate, coming from the northeast to northwest, with coastal waters ranging from slight to moderate — wave heights of 0.6 to 1.2 meters. These are generally manageable conditions for larger vessels, though small boat operators should still exercise prudence.
Decoding the Warnings: What the Hazards Mean for You
PAGASA has identified two key hazards in today's forecast: the risk of flash floods and landslides due to moderate to heavy rains in Visayas and Mindanao, and the possibility of the same during severe thunderstorms nationwide.
Flash floods can develop with very little warning, particularly in areas where heavy rain falls over a short period. Landslides are most likely in areas with steep slopes, loose soil, or deforested hillsides. If you live in or are traveling through these types of areas today — especially across the named Visayas and Mindanao regions — pay close attention to local government announcements and community warnings.
It is also worth noting that even in the absence of formal wind signal warnings today (Super Typhoon Choi-Wan is outside PAR and no wind signals have been raised), rainfall hazards from a typhoon's trough are real and should be taken seriously. If you want a full breakdown of how PAGASA's warning systems work — from rainfall color codes to tropical cyclone wind signals — read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What It Means for You
Commuters
Whether you are in Metro Manila or the Visayas and Mindanao regions, expect the possibility of sudden downpours — particularly in the afternoon and evening when thunderstorms are most likely to develop or intensify. Allow extra travel time, avoid flood-prone underpasses and low-lying roads, and keep an eye on local government traffic and flood advisories. If you are commuting in Leyte, Southern Leyte, or any part of Mindanao, be prepared for heavier, more persistent rainfall throughout the day.
Fisherfolk and Small Boat Operators
PAGASA's forecast calls for moderate to rough coastal waters across Visayas and Mindanao, with waves reaching up to 2.5 meters. Small boat operators — including those on motorized bancas and fishing vessels — are strongly advised to reconsider going out to sea today in these areas. Conditions along Luzon's coasts are slighter, with waves of 0.6 to 1.2 meters, but local sea state can always vary; check with your local coast guard before heading out.
Farmers
For farming communities in Visayas and Mindanao, the scattered to widespread rains could be a double-edged sword. While some rainfall may benefit crops, moderate to heavy and persistent rains raise the risk of waterlogging, soil erosion, and damage to unharvested crops. Farmers in low-lying agricultural areas should take precautions to protect harvests and monitor drainage in their fields. In Luzon, isolated rains are less likely to cause widespread agricultural disruption but localized damage from severe thunderstorms remains possible.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents and school administrators across Visayas and Mindanao should monitor local government unit (LGU) announcements regarding class suspensions, particularly in areas expecting heavier rainfall or where flooding is a known risk. In Luzon and Metro Manila, afternoon thunderstorms could still create hazardous conditions for students commuting home. Keep an eye on official announcements throughout the day.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Personnel
Anyone working outdoors in Visayas and Mindanao today faces the highest risk. Thunderstorms bring not only rain but also lightning and strong, gusty winds. Workers should identify safe shelters in advance, avoid open and elevated areas during thunderstorms, and follow their employer's safety protocols for adverse weather conditions. In Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, similar precautions apply during the afternoon hours when localized thunderstorms may develop.
Temperature and Heat Outlook
PAGASA's reference weather station at Science Garden, Diliman, Quezon City recorded the following conditions for the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM yesterday, Sunday, October 4, 2026:
- Maximum temperature: 33.6°C, recorded at 3:00 PM
- Minimum temperature: 24.8°C, recorded at 5:00 AM
- Maximum relative humidity: 94%, recorded at 5:00 AM
- Minimum relative humidity: 59%, recorded at 3:00 PM
These figures are recorded specifically for Metro Manila. A maximum temperature of 33.6°C combined with high humidity levels means that even on a day with cloudy skies and rain, the heat during dry spells — particularly in the morning before clouds build — can feel oppressive. Stay hydrated, especially if you work or exercise outdoors, and seek shade or air-conditioned spaces during the hottest parts of the day.
Tidal and Astronomical Information for Metro Manila
For those near coastal areas in Metro Manila, PAGASA notes the following tidal information for today: a high tide of 1.17 meters at 3:48 AM, and a low tide of -0.09 meters at 1:45 PM. Sunrise today is at 5:46 AM and sunset at 5:43 PM. The moon rises at 12:33 AM and sets at 1:51 PM, with a lunar illumination of 29%.
Bottom line: If you are in Mindanao, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Central Visayas, Leyte, or Southern Leyte today, take the threat of flash floods and landslides seriously — stay away from rivers, slopes, and flood-prone areas, and be ready to move quickly if your local government issues an evacuation order. Everywhere else in the country, watch out for sudden and severe afternoon thunderstorms.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.