QUEZON CITY, October 3, 2026 — Millions of Filipinos across Visayas and Mindanao face a heightened risk of flash floods and landslides this Saturday as the trough of Typhoon Choi-Wan pushes scattered to heavy rainfall over the central and southern Philippines, according to a forecast issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) at 4:00 AM today.
The rest of the country, including Metro Manila and the broader Luzon region, can expect a partly cloudy to cloudy day with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms produced by localized thunderstorm activity — a familiar pattern but one that can still disrupt afternoon commutes and outdoor plans.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
The main weather driver today is the trough of Typhoon Choi-Wan (2627). A trough is essentially an elongated band of low pressure that extends outward from a tropical cyclone — think of it as the storm's long arm reaching toward the Philippines even when the storm itself is far away. It funnels moisture and unstable air into the affected areas, producing prolonged rain and the conditions for intense, localized thunderstorms.
As of 3:00 AM Saturday, PAGASA reported that Typhoon Choi-Wan is located approximately 2,430 kilometers east of Northern Luzon, at coordinates 18.0°N, 144.7°E — well outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). The typhoon is packing maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near its center and gustiness of up to 160 km/h, and is moving northward at 10 km/h. While the storm poses no direct landfall threat to the Philippines at this time, its trough is producing significant rainfall over the Visayas and Mindanao.
For the rest of Luzon and Metro Manila, localized thunderstorms — convective weather systems that develop from surface heating and atmospheric instability — are the primary cause of today's isolated rain showers.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Mindanao and Visayas: Heavy Rain and Flash Flood Risk
PAGASA warns that the following areas will experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, with moderate to heavy rainfall at times:
- Mindanao (all provinces)
- Western Visayas
- Negros Island Region
- Central Visayas
- Leyte
- Southern Leyte
PAGASA explicitly flags the risk of flash floods and landslides in these areas due to the moderate to heavy rainfall expected throughout the day. Communities situated near river systems, in low-lying coastal areas, or along mountainous terrain in these regions are particularly vulnerable.
Metro Manila and the Rest of the Country: Localized Thunderstorms Possible
Metro Manila and the remainder of the Philippines — including the bulk of Luzon and the portions of Visayas not listed above — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. These are driven by localized thunderstorm activity rather than the typhoon trough, meaning they are shorter in duration but can still be intense when they occur, particularly during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
PAGASA notes that during severe thunderstorms in these areas, there remains a possibility of flash floods or landslides — a reminder that even isolated weather events can carry serious consequences in flood-prone urban and upland communities.
Coastal and Sea Conditions
Fisherfolk and those traveling by sea should take note of the following PAGASA forecast for coastal waters:
- Luzon and Visayas: Light to moderate winds blowing from the northeast to northwest; seas slight to moderate with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.2 meters.
- Mindanao: Light to moderate winds blowing from the west to southwest; seas slight to moderate with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.2 meters.
While these conditions are generally manageable for larger vessels, small outrigger boats and bancas are advised to exercise caution, particularly in areas where the typhoon trough may intensify local seas without much warning.
Decoding the Warnings: What They Mean for You
PAGASA's forecast for today does not place any part of the Philippines under a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal, as Typhoon Choi-Wan remains far outside PAR. However, the agency's explicit mention of flash flood and landslide risks tied to the typhoon trough is a serious advisory that residents in Mindanao and the affected Visayas provinces should treat with urgency.
Flash flood warnings mean that rainfall may accumulate faster than the ground can absorb, causing rapid rises in water levels in rivers, streams, and low-lying roads — sometimes within minutes of a heavy downpour. Landslide risks are heightened when rain saturates hillside soils over several hours, making slopes unstable. If you live in or are traveling through mountainous or riverside communities in the affected regions, do not wait for floodwaters to reach your doorstep before taking action.
If you are unsure how PAGASA's different warning levels — from rainfall color codes to storm signals — translate into action, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What Today's Forecast Means for You
Commuters
In Metro Manila and urban Luzon, expect the possibility of disruptive thunderstorms, most likely during the afternoon and early evening. Allow extra travel time, avoid flood-prone underpasses and low-lying roads during heavy rain, and keep an eye on local government updates. In Visayas and Mindanao cities — including Cebu, Davao, Iloilo, and Cagayan de Oro — expect a wetter day overall, and commuters should anticipate possible road flooding.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Wave heights of 0.6 to 1.2 meters are forecast across all Philippine coastal waters today. While these figures fall within the slight to moderate range, small outrigger vessels and bancas operating in waters near the trough-affected areas of Visayas and Mindanao should exercise heightened caution. Conditions can deteriorate quickly near active thunderstorm cells. Consider postponing non-essential fishing trips, particularly in the waters off Mindanao and the central Visayas.
Farmers
Farmers in Mindanao and the Visayas provinces identified by PAGASA should secure crops and farm structures ahead of expected moderate to heavy rainfall. Prolonged saturation of agricultural land, particularly in sloping terrain, can also contribute to erosion. Farmers in Metro Manila and Luzon should remain alert to localized thunderstorms that may arrive quickly in the afternoon hours.
Students, Parents, and School Administrators
Classes in Mindanao and the affected Visayas regions may be subject to suspension depending on local government decisions. Parents should monitor announcements from their Local Government Units (LGUs), particularly in areas where PAGASA has specifically flagged the risk of flash floods and landslides. In Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible — pack rain gear and plan accordingly.
Outdoor and Construction Workers
Workers in exposed environments — construction sites, agricultural fields, and outdoor markets — across Mindanao and Visayas should watch for rapidly deteriorating weather conditions. Thunderstorms can bring lightning, strong gusts, and sudden downpours. Supervisors should have clear protocols for halting outdoor work when severe thunderstorms approach.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's weather station in Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 32.1°C at 2:00 PM yesterday and a minimum of 24.5°C at 6:00 AM, with relative humidity ranging from 62% to 94%. While no extreme heat advisory has been issued for today, the combination of high humidity and intermittent cloud cover in Luzon may keep "feels-like" temperatures elevated during dry spells between showers. Residents should stay hydrated.
Sunrise over Metro Manila today is at 5:46 AM and sunset at 5:44 PM. The moon is at 50% illumination, with moonrise at 11:29 PM and moonset at 12:01 PM.
Bottom Line
If you are in Mindanao, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Central Visayas, Leyte, or Southern Leyte, treat today's forecast seriously: the trough of Typhoon Choi-Wan brings a real risk of flash floods and landslides, and residents in low-lying and mountainous communities should be ready to move to higher ground quickly if flooding begins. Everyone else across the country should prepare for possible afternoon thunderstorms and keep tabs on official updates throughout the day.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.