Typhoon CHAMPI is moving west-northwestward over the sea west of Guam and is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as early as Tuesday morning, 20 October 2026, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in its Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 4 issued at 11:00 AM on Monday, 19 October 2026.
Once inside PAR, PAGASA said the typhoon will be given the domestic name ROSAL. The agency warned that CHAMPI may re-intensify to super typhoon category before it begins to weaken, and that Wind Signals could be hoisted over parts of Luzon as early as Monday evening.
Position and Strength at 10:00 AM Monday
As of 10:00 AM Monday, the center of Typhoon CHAMPI was located approximately 1,600 kilometres east of Southeastern Luzon, at coordinates 14.1°N, 139.0°E — still well outside PAR. The typhoon was packing maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h near the center, with gustiness reaching up to 215 km/h and a central pressure of 945 hectopascals (hPa), PAGASA reported.
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outward up to 720 kilometres from the center, according to the advisory. At the time of the bulletin, CHAMPI was moving west-northwestward at 20 km/h.
Re-intensification Expected Before Peak
PAGASA's 120-hour track and intensity forecast shows CHAMPI re-intensifying over the next day and a half. By 8:00 PM Tuesday, 20 October, the storm is projected to be 1,175 kilometres east of Northern Luzon with maximum sustained winds of 205 km/h — a super typhoon classification — while still outside PAR.
The typhoon is expected to sustain that 205 km/h intensity through 8:00 PM Wednesday, 21 October, when it is forecast to be 635 kilometres east of Basco, Batanes. A gradual weakening trend is then projected to begin by Wednesday, 21 October, after the storm reaches peak intensity, according to PAGASA.
By 8:00 AM Thursday, 22 October, CHAMPI is forecast at 485 kilometres east of Basco, Batanes with winds easing slightly to 195 km/h. The 96-hour forecast places the typhoon 350 kilometres east-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes at 175 km/h by 8:00 AM Friday, 23 October. The 120-hour outlook at 8:00 AM Saturday, 24 October, shows the system 510 kilometres north of Itbayat, Batanes — back outside PAR — with winds further reduced to 155 km/h, as it tracks toward Taiwan.
Wind Signals and Gusty Conditions
PAGASA said Wind Signals may be hoisted over the northern and eastern portions of Northern Luzon and portions of the Bicol Region as early as Monday evening or Tuesday morning, in anticipation of strong winds or higher associated with the approaching typhoon. The highest Wind Signal expected under the current forecast scenario is Wind Signal No. 3 or No. 4, the agency stated.
Gusty conditions are likely to begin affecting most parts of Luzon and the Visayas, as well as portions of Mindanao, by Wednesday, 21 October. The typhoon will also bring heavy rains to Extreme Northern Luzon, and PAGASA said a separate Weather Advisory will be issued in anticipation of those rains.
Marine Hazards Along Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao Seaboards
For maritime concerns, PAGASA warned that moderate to rough seas may begin developing over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and the eastern seaboards of the Visayas and Mindanao by Tuesday. Hazardous sea conditions — defined by PAGASA as very rough, high, or very high seas — may affect the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon beginning Wednesday.
A Gale Warning for very rough seas is expected to be issued Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning, according to the advisory. The agency advised the public and disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM) offices to continue monitoring for updates.
Forecast Track Keeps Typhoon Over Philippine Sea
PAGASA noted in its general outlook that ROSAL — as it will be known once inside PAR — is expected to remain over the Philippine Sea as it moves toward Taiwan. Its forecast track keeps the center over the sea, though PAGASA still expects wind signals, gusty conditions and heavy rain over the land areas named in the advisory.
PAR Entry and Domestic Naming
PAGASA projected that CHAMPI will enter PAR on Tuesday morning or early Tuesday afternoon, 20 October 2026, at which point it will officially be renamed ROSAL under the Philippine tropical cyclone naming convention. The next advisory from PAGASA was scheduled for 11:00 PM Monday, 19 October 2026, unless an intermediate issuance is warranted by significant changes in the storm's behavior.
The advisory was prepared by the PAGASA Weather Division at the Weather and Flood Forecasting Center in Quezon City and is available at bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph.
Photo credit: Photo courtesy of PAGASA / bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph