QUEZON CITY, October 2, 2026 — Residents across Visayas and Mindanao face a rainy and potentially hazardous Friday as the trough of Severe Tropical Storm Choi-Wan sweeps across the southern Philippines, bringing scattered rains, thunderstorms, and an elevated risk of flash floods and landslides, according to a forecast issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) at 4:00 AM today.
While Choi-Wan remains far from Philippine shores — sitting 2,495 kilometers east of Northern Luzon as of 3:00 AM — its outer weather band, called a trough, is already making its presence felt across a wide swath of the country. Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, meanwhile, are contending with their own rain-producing system: localized thunderstorms fueled by atmospheric heat and moisture.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
A trough is an elongated area of low atmospheric pressure that extends outward from a tropical storm or typhoon. Think of it as a long arm of disturbed weather stretching hundreds of kilometers from the storm's center. Even though Choi-Wan itself will not make landfall in the Philippines today, this trailing band is pulling moisture-laden air over Visayas and Mindanao, organizing clouds and triggering persistent, at times heavy, rainfall across the region.
Choi-Wan, classified as a Severe Tropical Storm with maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour near its center and gusts of up to 115 km/h, is moving west-northwestward at 10 km/h. PAGASA notes it is currently outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is tracking away from the country's immediate area. No tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised over any part of the Philippines as of this bulletin.
For Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, localized thunderstorms — weather events generated by local heat and humidity rather than by any large-scale system — are the main concern. These can develop quickly and produce intense but short-lived downpours, sometimes accompanied by strong winds and lightning.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Mindanao, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, and Central Visayas
PAGASA expects cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms throughout the day across these areas, directly caused by the trough of Choi-Wan. Rainfall intensity will be moderate to at times heavy, and PAGASA flags an explicit risk of flash floods and landslides as a result. Residents in low-lying areas, riverbanks, and mountainous communities in these regions should be on alert and ready to respond to any evacuation advisories from local disaster-risk reduction offices.
This is the part of the country most directly impacted by today's weather. Those in Eastern Samar, Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Iloilo, Capiz, Antique, Aklan, and across the major island groups of Mindanao — including Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, Zamboanga Peninsula, Caraga, and BARMM — should expect disrupted travel, potential flooding in flood-prone zones, and rough conditions outdoors.
The Rest of Visayas
Areas in Visayas not covered by the heavier forecast — including parts of Eastern Visayas not already under the trough's direct influence — will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, also attributed to the trough of Choi-Wan. While conditions here are less severe than in Western and Central Visayas, PAGASA still warns of possible flash floods and landslides during severe thunderstorms. Residents should not be caught off guard by sudden, intense downpours.
Metro Manila and the Rest of Luzon
The capital region and the broader Luzon island group — including the Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, and Bicol Region — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. The cause here is localized thunderstorms, not the tropical storm trough. PAGASA still cautions that these storms carry the possibility of flash floods and landslides during their most severe episodes.
Residents in Metro Manila should not assume they are entirely off the hook: afternoon thunderstorms are a common feature of localized storm development, and even brief but intense rain can flood low-lying streets and underpasses rapidly.
Decoding the Hazard Warnings
PAGASA's forecast for today does not include any active Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals, as Choi-Wan remains outside PAR. However, the agency does flag the risk of flash floods and landslides across affected regions — a consequence-based warning tied to the expected rainfall intensity rather than to a color-coded rainfall advisory level in today's bulletin.
If your local government or PAGASA issues a yellow, orange, or red rainfall warning for your area in the coming hours, these escalating levels indicate increasing rainfall intensity and rising flood danger. Not sure what those levels mean in practice? Read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings — it breaks down exactly what each color and wind signal number means and what action you should take.
The key takeaway from today's PAGASA forecast: even without an active wind signal, the trough of Choi-Wan is capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall sufficient to cause flash flooding in low-lying areas and trigger landslides on saturated slopes.
What It Means for You
Commuters
If you are traveling across Mindanao, Western Visayas, Negros Island, or Central Visayas today, build extra time into your journey. Roads in mountainous areas may be partially blocked by landslides, and urban streets in flood-prone cities could be inundated during peak rainfall. In Metro Manila and Luzon, afternoon thunderstorms can trigger rapid street flooding — avoid walking through floodwater of unknown depth, and be aware that underpasses can fill quickly.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
PAGASA forecasts slight to moderate coastal water conditions across Luzon and Visayas, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.2 meters. Mindanao's coastal waters are similarly forecast at 0.6 to 1.2 meters. While these wave heights are within manageable range for larger vessels, small-boat operators — bangka fishermen in particular — should exercise caution, especially near the coasts of Mindanao, Western Visayas, and Central Visayas where rain and thunderstorms are more frequent today. Winds across all areas are light to moderate, coming from the northeast to northwest over Luzon and Visayas, and from the northwest to west over Mindanao.
Farmers
The scattered to moderate rainfall over Mindanao and Visayas may benefit crops needing irrigation, but heavy bursts of rain in short periods risk waterlogging low-lying fields and washing away loose topsoil. Farmers on hillside terraces should be particularly watchful for signs of soil saturation and slope instability, as PAGASA explicitly identifies landslide risk in the most heavily affected regions today.
Students, Parents, and School Administrators
With flash flood and landslide risks flagged for Mindanao, Western Visayas, Negros Island, and Central Visayas, school administrators in these regions should monitor updates from their local disaster-risk reduction councils and be prepared to activate class suspension protocols. Parents should check local government announcements before sending children to school, particularly in areas near rivers, flood plains, or mountain slopes.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery personnel, market vendors, and others who work outdoors in the affected regions face a challenging day. Lightning is a real danger during thunderstorms — seek sturdy shelter at the first sign of thunder. Avoid working near swollen rivers, unstable embankments, or areas with a history of flooding. In Luzon, localized thunderstorms can develop rapidly in the afternoon hours even when mornings appear clear.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA's weather station in Science Garden, Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 32.6°C at 12:00 noon and a minimum of 25.7°C at 8:00 PM for the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM yesterday, October 1. Relative humidity ranged from a high of 91 percent to a low of 57 percent over the same period. The combination of warm temperatures and high humidity in Metro Manila makes outdoor heat exposure uncomfortable, particularly during midday hours when the sun is strongest and before afternoon showers arrive.
Sunrise over Metro Manila today is at 5:46 AM and sunset at 5:45 PM. The moon rises tonight at 10:25 PM and sets at 10:58 AM, with a 62 percent illumination — just past the first quarter.
About Severe Tropical Storm Choi-Wan
For reference, Choi-Wan (international identifier 2627) was located at 16.7°N, 145.1°E as of 3:00 AM today — well east of Northern Luzon and outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility. It is moving west-northwestward at 10 km/h. PAGASA has not raised any tropical cyclone wind signals over any part of the Philippines in connection with this storm. Its significance to today's Philippine weather is limited to the trough it is extending over the Visayas and Mindanao.
Bottom line: If you are in Mindanao, Western Visayas, Negros Island, or Central Visayas today, treat the flash flood and landslide risk seriously — stay away from riverbanks and slopes, monitor your local government's announcements, and have an evacuation plan ready. Everywhere else in the Philippines, be prepared for sudden afternoon thunderstorms that can cause localized flooding even without a storm signal in effect.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.