QUEZON CITY — Two weather systems are shaping the skies over the Philippines on Friday, September 25, 2026: Tropical Storm "Queenie," still several hundred kilometers east of Northern Luzon, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which is already delivering heavy, flood-inducing rain across parts of Visayas and Mindanao. PAGASA issued its 24-hour public weather forecast at 4:00 AM today, valid until 4:00 AM on Saturday, September 26.
Millions of Filipinos — from farmers in Mindanao bracing for another round of downpours to commuters in Metro Manila watching for sudden afternoon showers — should factor today's forecasts into their plans before stepping out the door.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
Two distinct systems are at work across the archipelago today.
Tropical Storm "Queenie" was located approximately 1,075 kilometers east of Extreme Northern Luzon (near coordinates 19.3°N, 131.7°E) as of 3:00 AM this morning. It is carrying maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near its center and gusts of up to 90 km/h, and it is moving northwestward at 20 km/h. In plain terms, Queenie is a tropical storm — a spinning, organized weather system over the ocean that draws its energy from warm seawater, generating strong winds and heavy rainfall. Because it remains more than 1,000 kilometers away, it is not directly drenching most of the country today, but its track deserves close watching in the days ahead.
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is the more immediate concern for millions of people today. The ITCZ is a belt of low pressure near the equator where the trade winds of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres meet, forcing warm, moist air upward and generating persistent clusters of clouds, rain, and thunderstorms. It is currently affecting Visayas and Mindanao, and PAGASA attributes the heaviest rain risks today directly to this system.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Mindanao, Negros Oriental, and Siquijor
Residents in these areas face the most challenging weather conditions today. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, with the ITCZ identified as the direct cause. The agency explicitly warns of the possible occurrence of flash floods or landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rainfall. People living in low-lying areas, near rivers, or on hillside communities in Mindanao, Negros Oriental, and Siquijor should be on heightened alert throughout the day and into tonight.
The Rest of Visayas and Palawan
The remaining provinces of Visayas — including Cebu, Leyte, Samar, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Antique, Guimaras, Bohol, and Biliran — along with Palawan, can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, also driven by the ITCZ. While conditions are not as widespread as in the southern areas, PAGASA cautions that flash floods or landslides remain possible during severe thunderstorms. Rain in these areas may come in sudden, intense bursts rather than continuous downpours, so residents should not be caught off guard by a dry morning followed by a stormy afternoon.
Metro Manila and the Rest of Luzon
Most of Luzon, including the National Capital Region, will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. Here, the culprit is not the ITCZ but rather localized thunderstorms — convective activity that builds up during the heat of the day and can produce sudden, short but heavy downpours, particularly in the afternoon and early evening. PAGASA still flags the possibility of flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms, particularly in flood-prone urban areas and mountainous provinces across Luzon.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
Filipinos who earn their living at sea — and those who rely on inter-island ferry or boat services — should take careful note of today's coastal water forecast:
- Northern and eastern sections of Luzon: Light to moderate winds blowing from the northeast to east. Wave heights of 0.6 to 1.8 meters (slight to moderate).
- Visayas and Mindanao: Light to moderate winds from the northeast to northwest. Wave heights of 0.6 to 1.8 meters (slight to moderate).
- The rest of Luzon: Light to moderate winds with variable direction. Wave heights of 0.6 to 1.2 meters (slight to moderate).
While no gale warning has been raised by PAGASA as of this bulletin, wave heights of up to 1.8 meters can still pose a hazard to small, outrigger, or overloaded bancas. Operators of small watercraft should exercise caution and check for the latest advisories before departing.
Decoding Today's Warnings
PAGASA has not raised a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal for any area in connection with Tropical Storm Queenie as of this forecast, reflecting the storm's current distance from the Philippine landmass. No rainfall warning colors (Yellow, Orange, or Red) have been issued in this bulletin for specific provinces; however, the agency's explicit mention of "possible flash floods or landslides" across Mindanao, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, the rest of Visayas, Palawan, and parts of Luzon is a clear signal that conditions today are not benign in those areas.
If local government units or PAGASA issue rainfall advisories for your area later today, understanding what each warning level means is critical. You can learn more about how to read PAGASA's weather warnings — including the difference between Yellow, Orange, and Red rainfall warnings and Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals — in our explainer guide.
In summary, the active hazard language in today's PAGASA bulletin means: even without a formal numbered warning, people in the affected areas should treat today's weather seriously and avoid unnecessary exposure to flooded streets, swollen rivers, and unstable slopes.
What It Means for You
Commuters
In Metro Manila and most of Luzon, expect the classic pattern of a deceptively clear morning giving way to afternoon or early evening thunderstorms. Leave earlier if possible, keep a rain jacket or umbrella on hand, and avoid walking through flooded underpasses or streets — even knee-deep floodwater can carry strong currents and hidden hazards. In Mindanao, Negros Oriental, and Siquijor, plan for rain throughout the day and check your route for flood-prone roads before leaving home.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Wave heights of up to 1.8 meters are forecast for the northern and eastern coasts of Luzon and for the waters around Visayas and Mindanao. Small, non-motorized boats and overloaded bancas are at risk in these conditions. Fisherfolk are strongly advised to assess sea conditions carefully before heading out and to stay within safe distance of shore. Monitor updates from PAGASA and the Philippine Coast Guard before and during any sea voyage.
Farmers
Scattered to isolated rains across Mindanao and Visayas could bring relief to dry fields but also risk waterlogging low-lying farmland or washing out recently planted crops. Farmers in areas with scattered thunderstorms should secure equipment and harvested produce from sudden downpours. Those in landslide-prone upland farming communities in Mindanao should be particularly vigilant and heed any evacuation orders from local officials.
Students, Parents, and Schools
No class suspensions have been announced in this PAGASA bulletin, but parents of children in Mindanao, Negros Oriental, and Siquijor — where the heaviest rains are expected — should monitor announcements from their local government units throughout the morning. Afternoon dismissal times in Luzon may coincide with localized thunderstorms; parents picking up children should anticipate traffic delays and brief but heavy rain.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Sites
Workers on open construction sites, those in agriculture, and anyone working outdoors in Mindanao, Visayas, and Palawan should be prepared for sudden heavy downpours and lightning. Thunderstorms carry significant lightning risk — workers should seek shelter in a sturdy structure when thunder is heard and wait at least 30 minutes after the last thunderclap before resuming outdoor activity.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 32.1°C at 2:00 PM yesterday and a minimum of 25.3°C at 6:00 AM. Relative humidity ranged from a high of 94 percent to a low of 65 percent over the same 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM Thursday. The near-full moon (98% illumination) will provide bright skies for those outdoors tonight where clouds allow, with sunrise today at 5:45 AM and sunset at 5:50 PM over Metro Manila.
The combination of temperatures in the low 30s Celsius and high humidity can make it feel significantly hotter than the thermometer reading, particularly during midday and early afternoon hours in areas not yet affected by rain. Outdoor workers and those without access to shade or cooling should stay hydrated and take regular breaks.
Bottom Line
The most important thing you can do today: If you are in Mindanao, Negros Oriental, or Siquijor, treat this as a high-rain day from the start — avoid riverbanks, flood-prone roads, and hillside areas, and stay alert for flash flood and landslide warnings from your local government. Everywhere else in the Philippines, be ready for sudden afternoon thunderstorms and never attempt to cross flooded areas on foot or by vehicle. Keep watching Tropical Storm Queenie's track, as its path may affect more areas in the coming days.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.