MANILA, August 6, 2026 — Filipinos across much of Luzon and the Visayas are waking up Thursday to dangerous and disruptive weather as Tropical Storm Maymay (international name: Kujira) makes its presence felt over Ilocos Sur, while the Southwest Monsoon continues to squeeze heavy rain out of the skies over Southern Luzon and parts of the Visayas. The state weather bureau PAGASA issued this forecast at 4:00 AM on August 6, 2026, valid through 4:00 AM on Friday, August 7.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
Two weather systems are shaping conditions nationwide on Thursday.
The primary threat is Tropical Storm Maymay. As of 3:00 AM today, PAGASA placed its center in the vicinity of Bantay, Ilocos Sur — at coordinates 17.6°N, 120.4°E — with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gusts reaching up to 110 km/h. The storm is tracking eastward at 10 km/h. In plain terms, a tropical storm is a rotating weather system powerful enough to generate strong, destructive winds and intense, sustained rainfall over a wide area. Because Maymay is currently positioned directly over land in Ilocos Sur, communities in that province and across Northern Luzon and the Cordillera are bearing the full brunt of its winds and rain today.
The second driver is the Southwest Monsoon, locally known as habagat. PAGASA says the habagat is currently affecting Southern Luzon and the western section of the Visayas. The habagat is a seasonal wind pattern that funnels warm, moisture-laden air from the southwest across the country every wet season. When a tropical storm is present, the habagat is often intensified, pushing even heavier rainfall into areas on the storm's southwestern flank — which explains why rain is also falling far south of the storm itself, including in Metro Manila and the Bicol region.
A third system, Typhoon Dolphin, is noted in PAGASA's bulletin but is currently located approximately 1,450 km east-northeast of extreme Northern Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h and gusts up to 195 km/h, moving west-northwestward at 20 km/h. Dolphin is outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility and is not directly affecting Philippine weather at this time, though Filipinos should continue monitoring its track.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Northern Luzon and Cordillera: Intense Rain and Gale-Force Winds
The most severe conditions today are in the provinces directly in and around Tropical Storm Maymay's path. PAGASA forecasts intense rainfall with gusty to gale-force winds for the following areas:
Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Mountain Province, Abra, Kalinga, and Apayao — these Ilocos and Cordillera provinces are in the storm's immediate path. Residents should expect flash floods and landslides due to the intense rain, as well as significant property damage and potential injuries from strong and gale-force winds. Do not attempt to travel through mountainous areas, river corridors, or low-lying flood-prone zones today.
Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, and Aurora — these Cagayan Valley and Northern Sierra Madre provinces face heavy rainfall with gusty winds from Tropical Storm Maymay. Flash floods and landslides remain a risk. Gusts at times may reach gale force.
Central Luzon and Metro Manila: Rain and Thunderstorms
Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, and Laguna will experience occasional rains brought by the Southwest Monsoon today. While not as severe as conditions in Northern Luzon, urban flooding in low-lying and flood-prone areas of the metro remains possible during heavy spells.
The rest of Central Luzon and Pangasinan — areas away from the storm's immediate center — can expect cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, also driven by Tropical Storm Maymay. Localized heavy downpours are possible, and the public should remain alert to flash floods, particularly near waterways and low-lying terrain.
Southern Luzon and MIMAROPA: Cloudy With Scattered Rain
The rest of MIMAROPA (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan), as well as Quezon province and Antique, will see cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms due to the Southwest Monsoon. Flash floods and landslides are possible, particularly during severe thunderstorms in these areas.
Visayas and Mindanao: Partly Cloudy With Isolated Showers
The rest of the country — including most of the Visayas and Mindanao not specifically named above — will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. PAGASA notes that flash floods and landslides remain possible during severe thunderstorms even in these areas. Residents should not be complacent simply because their area is not in the direct path of the storm.
Winds and Coastal Water Conditions
PAGASA also issued the following wind and coastal water forecast for Thursday:
Extreme Northern Luzon — Moderate to strong winds from the northwest; seas are rough to very rough, with wave heights reaching moderate to rough levels. A gale warning is in effect for seaboards in this area.
Ilocos Region — Moderate to strong winds from the northwest; coastal waters are rough.
The rest of Central Luzon — Moderate to strong winds from the north to southwest; seas are moderate to rough, with wave heights of 1.25 to 2.5 meters.
A gale warning is in effect for seaboards near the storm. A gale warning means winds are strong enough to generate dangerously large waves and make navigation extremely hazardous. Small vessels — including fishing boats, ferries, and motorized bancas — should not venture into affected waters.
Decoding the Warnings
PAGASA's forecast describes several layers of weather risk today. Understanding what each means can help you make the right decision for your family's safety. For a complete guide, read how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
Intense Rainfall (Ilocos, Cordillera, Cagayan Valley): This is the most serious rainfall category in today's forecast. It means rainfall is heavy, continuous, and capable of triggering flash floods in low-lying areas and landslides in mountainous or hilly terrain. Residents in these provinces — especially those living near rivers, in mountain barangays, or in areas with known flood history — should be ready to evacuate immediately if local authorities issue the order. Do not wait for floodwaters to reach your doorstep.
Heavy Rainfall with Gusty Winds (Cagayan Valley and surrounding provinces): Expect sustained downpours and strong, intermittent gusts. Driving conditions will be poor. Stay off mountain roads and away from swollen rivers and streams.
Gale Warning (Extreme Northern Luzon seaboards): Winds are strong enough to create very rough seas. All small vessels must remain in port. Even larger commercial vessels should exercise extreme caution.
Scattered Rain Showers and Thunderstorms (Metro Manila, Central Luzon, MIMAROPA, Visayas, Mindanao): These conditions may seem less threatening, but severe thunderstorms can bring localized heavy rain, lightning, and sudden flooding with little warning. Stay alert and avoid open areas during lightning activity.
What It Means for You
Commuters
If you are in Ilocos, Cordillera, or Cagayan Valley, avoid travel today if at all possible. Roads in these areas will be hazardous due to intense rainfall, strong winds, possible fallen trees and debris, and the risk of landslides on mountain passes. In Metro Manila and Central Luzon, expect rain-related traffic delays and possible flash flooding in low-lying streets during heavy downpours. Give yourself extra time or work from home if your employer allows it.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Do not go out to sea if you operate a small vessel in the waters off Northern and Western Luzon. A gale warning is active in extreme Northern Luzon's seaboards, and seas are rough to very rough in those areas. Wave heights in Central Luzon's western waters reach 1.25 to 2.5 meters — dangerous for small fishing boats and motorized bancas. Stay ashore until PAGASA lifts the warning.
Farmers
Farmers in Northern Luzon — particularly those in Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, and the Cordillera — face a real risk of crop damage and soil erosion today from intense rainfall and strong winds. Secure any farm equipment, livestock shelters, and harvested produce. Avoid working in open fields or near rivers and irrigation canals during the storm. In the rest of the country, the scattered rain showers are beneficial for crops but be alert to localized flooding in low-lying agricultural fields.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Classes in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Mountain Province, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, and Aurora should be monitored closely. Local government units — not PAGASA — make the final call on class suspensions, but the intense rainfall and strong winds in these areas today create conditions where suspension is appropriate. Parents should watch for announcements from their local disaster risk reduction and management offices and school principals. In Metro Manila and other affected areas, watch for class suspension announcements tied to flooding rather than wind damage.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, and others who work outdoors in Northern and Central Luzon face the highest risk today. Gale-force gusts in the Ilocos region and Cordillera make elevated work — scaffolding, rooftop installation, electrical lines — extremely dangerous. Employers in these areas should consider suspending outdoor operations for the day. In Metro Manila and other regions with thunderstorm risk, seek shelter immediately when lightning is observed and avoid being under trees or near tall metal structures.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's forecast includes temperature data for key cities, though the raw figures in today's bulletin are partially obscured. As a general guide, overcast skies and heavy rainfall across Luzon will keep temperatures on the cooler side today compared to the dry-season norm. In areas experiencing thunderstorms — including parts of the Visayas and Mindanao — daytime heat may still build before afternoon showers bring brief relief. Residents in areas unaffected by the storm should continue taking precautions against heat, particularly during midday hours.
Bottom Line
If you are in Ilocos, Cordillera, or Cagayan Valley, treat today as a dangerous weather day: stay indoors, avoid all unnecessary travel, stay away from rivers and mountain roads, and follow your local government's instructions on evacuation. For everyone else across the Philippines, expect rain and thunderstorms — and stay off the water if you operate a small vessel in Northern and Western Luzon.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.