MANILA, July 24, 2026 — Millions of Filipinos across the country are waking up to the threat of flooding, landslides, and rough seas on Friday as Tropical Storm Kivapo closes in on the northern Philippines, while the Southwest Monsoon simultaneously drenches the western coast from Mindanao to Visayas. The state weather bureau PAGASA issued its 24-hour public weather forecast at 4:00 AM today, valid until 4:00 AM on Saturday, July 25.
A Storm on the Move: What Is Driving Today's Weather
At the center of today's weather picture is Tropical Storm Kivapo, known internationally as Noul. As of 3:00 AM this morning, PAGASA placed the storm's center at approximately 355 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan — putting it squarely in the Philippine Sea and on a course toward the northern tip of Luzon. Kivapo is carrying maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour near its center, with gusts reaching up to 80 km/h, and is charging west-northwestward at a brisk 30 km/h.
In plain terms: a tropical storm is a large, organized system of rotating thunderstorms over warm ocean water. At 65 km/h sustained winds, Kivapo is powerful enough to topple trees, damage light structures, and whip coastal waters into dangerous swells. Its speed of movement — 30 km/h — means conditions will deteriorate quickly across affected areas today and will not linger for long in any single location, but the rainfall it brings can still trigger serious flash flooding and landslides, particularly in mountainous terrain.
Making the situation more complex, PAGASA also reports that the Southwest Monsoon — locally known as habagat — is simultaneously affecting Mindanao and the western sections of southern Luzon and the Visayas. The habagat is the seasonal wind system that blows moist air from the southwest across the archipelago each wet season. When a tropical storm like Kivapo is active nearby, it can intensify the habagat, pushing even more moisture onto already-wet coastlines far from the storm's direct path. This dual threat means that even areas not in Kivapo's direct track will see significant rainfall today.
Region-by-Region Forecast: What to Expect Where You Are
Northern Luzon — Highest Alert
The provinces closest to Kivapo's projected path face the most severe conditions. Ilocos Norte, Batanes, and the Babuyan Islands will experience stormy weather today, with heavy to at-times torrential rains. PAGASA specifically flags serious risks: flash floods, landslides, and minor to moderate threats to life and property from strong winds. Residents in these areas — especially those in low-lying coastal areas and on mountain slopes — should treat this forecast with the utmost urgency.
Conditions are also expected to be dangerous across a broader northern arc: the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), the western portion of Cagayan Valley, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Aurora are forecast to have cloudy skies with occasional rains driven by Kivapo. Flash floods and landslides remain a real possibility in these provinces due to moderate to heavy rainfall. The rugged terrain of the Cordillera — home to Benguet, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Kalinga, Apayao, and Abra — is especially vulnerable to landslides when sustained heavy rain falls on saturated ground.
Central Luzon, Metro Manila, and CALABARZON
Metro Manila, CALABARZON (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon), the rest of Central Luzon, the rest of MIMAROPA, and Pangasinan can expect cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, with Kivapo as the contributing factor. While conditions here are less extreme than in the north, flash floods and landslides are still possible due to moderate to at-times heavy rain. Commuters in the capital region and surrounding provinces should anticipate disruptions and prepare for wet travel conditions throughout the day.
Visayas
The Visayas region will see cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms today, attributed by PAGASA to Tropical Storm Kivapo. Flash floods and landslides are possible across the island group due to moderate to at-times heavy rainfall. The Southwest Monsoon's influence on the western sections of the Visayas adds to the rain potential, particularly along western-facing coastlines.
Mindanao
Mindanao's weather today is being shaped not by Kivapo directly, but by the Southwest Monsoon. The island group's western and southern portions are expected to receive moderate to heavy rainfall from the habagat. Flash floods and landslides remain a hazard, and residents in low-lying and slope-prone communities should stay alert.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Hazard Level Means for You
PAGASA's forecast identifies several specific hazards that readers should understand before stepping out or making plans today.
Flash Floods: These are fast-moving floods that develop within minutes to hours of heavy rainfall, most often in low-lying areas, near rivers and streams, and in urban areas where drainage is poor. They give little warning and can be deadly. If you live in a flood-prone zone in any of the areas listed above, identify your evacuation route now — not when the water is already rising.
Landslides: Heavy sustained rain saturates hillsides and weakens the soil, sometimes causing sudden slope failures. Communities on or near steep terrain in the Cordillera, Aurora, Cagayan Valley, and the mountain provinces of Mindanao and the Visayas should be especially watchful for cracking ground, unusual sounds from hillsides, or sudden changes in nearby streams, all of which can signal an imminent landslide.
Strong Winds and Property Damage: In Ilocos Norte, Batanes, and the Babuyan Islands, PAGASA warns of a minor to moderate threat to life and property from strong winds associated with Kivapo. Secure loose objects — signage, potted plants, corrugated roofing — before the winds intensify. If your home is a light structure, consider moving to a sturdier building or evacuation center.
Not sure how to interpret PAGASA's color-coded rainfall warnings, storm signals, or other official hazard levels? Read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings for a full breakdown of what each level means and what actions to take.
Coastal Waters and Wind Conditions
PAGASA's forecast paints a challenging picture for anyone who works on or near the sea today.
Seas off Mindanao are forecast to be moderate to rough, with waves reaching 1.2 to 2.8 meters, driven by moderate to strong winds from the south. The waters of the rest of Visayas and southern Luzon will have slight to moderate seas under light to moderate southwest winds. The rest of Luzon faces slight to moderate conditions under light to moderate south-to-southwest winds.
In practical terms: seas of 1.2 to 2.8 meters can swamp small and medium-sized vessels, and conditions can worsen rapidly as Kivapo draws nearer. PAGASA's standard guidance — and the only safe choice today — is for small craft operators and fisherfolk to remain in port.
What It Means for You
Commuters in Metro Manila and Urban Centers
Scattered rains and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day across the capital region and most major urban centers in Luzon and the Visayas. Expect traffic disruptions, flooded underpasses, and delayed public transport. Leave earlier than usual, keep rain gear at hand, and check your local government's social media channels for road closure updates before you travel.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Conditions at sea are unsafe for small vessels across most Philippine waters today. Waves off Mindanao may reach 2.8 meters — well beyond the safe operating threshold for small fishing boats. Do not go out to sea. Wait for PAGASA's next advisory before making any decisions to return to the water.
Farmers
Heavy rainfall and strong winds in northern Luzon pose a risk to standing crops, particularly in Ilocos Norte, La Union, and Cagayan Valley. Flooding in low-lying agricultural land is possible. If you can, harvest or secure any crops that are ready before conditions worsen. In Mindanao, heavy monsoon rains may also affect farm fields — ensure drainage channels are clear.
Students, Parents, and School Administrators
Classes and school activities in Batanes, the Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and the broader Cordillera region may be suspended depending on local government decisions driven by Kivapo's approach. Monitor your local government unit's official announcements. Students and parents in Metro Manila and CALABARZON should also be prepared for last-minute advisories if rainfall intensifies during school hours.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Sites
Anyone working outdoors in northern Luzon today faces genuinely dangerous conditions — gusty winds, heavy rain, and the risk of sudden flash flooding or landslides. Site supervisors and employers should assess whether outdoor work can safely proceed and be ready to stand down crews if conditions deteriorate.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA's weather station in Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 32.1°C yesterday at 2:00 PM, and a minimum of 25.8°C at 5:00 AM. Relative humidity ranged from a morning high of 93% at 5:00 AM to an afternoon low of 64% at 2:00 PM. With widespread cloud cover and active rainfall expected across much of the country today, temperatures in affected areas are likely to remain on the lower end, though the high humidity will make conditions feel muggy and uncomfortable.
Bottom Line
If you are in northern Luzon — particularly Batanes, the Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and the Cordillera — stay indoors, move away from riverbanks and steep slopes, and follow your local government's emergency instructions as Tropical Storm Kivapo approaches. The rest of the country should also prepare for a wet and disruptive day: secure loose items, avoid flood-prone roads, and keep small vessels ashore. The storm is moving quickly, but its impacts — especially flooding and landslides — can outlast the rain itself.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.