MANILA, July 14, 2026 — Filipinos in the northern and western portions of Luzon woke up Tuesday to overcast skies and rain as the southwest monsoon, locally known as habagat, continues to grip the western section of Northern Luzon. At the same time, PAGASA is keeping watch on Tropical Storm "Josie" (international name: Haishen), now positioned 1,095 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas and tracking toward the Philippines.
The state weather bureau issued its 3:00 AM bulletin on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, presenting a nationwide picture shaped by two distinct weather forces — an active monsoon in the north and a developing tropical storm well offshore in the Pacific.
What's Driving Today's Weather
Two systems are at play across the archipelago today, according to PAGASA.
The southwest monsoon (habagat) is the dominant driver for western Northern Luzon. The habagat is the seasonal wind pattern that blows warm, moisture-laden air from the southwest across the Philippines between roughly June and September each year. When this system intensifies or makes direct contact with a region, it funnels large volumes of rain-bearing clouds over the affected area — producing the persistent, widespread rainfall that residents of the Ilocos Region and La Union are experiencing today.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Josie (Haishen) is currently no threat to land, sitting 1,095 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas as of 3:00 AM Tuesday. It is packing maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near its center and gusts of up to 80 km/h, and is moving northwestward at 23 km/h. While it has not yet directly affected the Philippine weather picture beyond the far eastern seas, PAGASA is tracking its movement. Its northwestward trajectory warrants continued monitoring.
The rest of the country — where neither the monsoon nor Josie is yet directly felt — faces isolated rain showers and thunderstorms driven by localized convection, a common feature of the Philippine rainy season.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
The most significant weather activity on Tuesday is concentrated in the western section of Northern Luzon. Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union — all fronting the South China Sea and directly exposed to the southwest monsoon — will bear the brunt of today's conditions. Residents should expect cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms throughout the day. PAGASA has flagged the possibility of flash floods or landslides in areas receiving moderate to heavy rainfall.
The rest of Luzon, including Metro Manila and provinces in Central Luzon, Calabarzon, the Cordillera Administrative Region, and the Bicol Region, will see partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. These are attributed to localized thunderstorm activity rather than a large-scale system. Flash floods or landslides remain possible wherever severe thunderstorms develop.
Visayas
The Visayas region — including the Western, Central, and Eastern Visayas — falls under the broader "rest of the country" forecast. Residents of Cebu, Iloilo, Leyte, Samar, and surrounding provinces can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. Severe local thunderstorms could still trigger flash floods or landslides in low-lying and mountainous areas. Eastern Visayas remains the closest land area to Tropical Storm Josie, though the storm poses no immediate direct threat at its current distance of over 1,000 kilometers.
Mindanao
Mindanao is similarly covered by the general "partly cloudy to cloudy" forecast, with isolated rains and thunderstorms possible due to localized weather disturbances. Residents of Davao, Cagayan de Oro, Zamboanga, and other Mindanao cities and provinces should still be prepared for brief but intense thunderstorms that can produce dangerous local flooding. PAGASA notes that flash floods or landslides are possible in areas hit by severe thunderstorms nationwide.
Decoding the Warnings
PAGASA has not raised any Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal for Tropical Storm Josie as of the 3:00 AM Tuesday bulletin. The storm remains well beyond Philippine territory and no coastal communities are under signal at this time. However, conditions at sea are a different matter.
Coastal waters in the northern and western sections of the country are forecast to be moderate to rough, with wave heights of 2.0 to 3.4 meters. These conditions are driven by the southwest monsoon. Waves in that height range can capsize small fishing boats and make navigation hazardous for light watercraft. Mariners and fisherfolk operating in these waters should exercise extreme caution or, where possible, stay ashore.
All other coastal waters around the country are forecast as slight to moderate, meaning generally manageable conditions — but local thunderstorms can still produce sudden, unexpected swells even in calmer-rated sea areas.
For a full explanation of what each warning level means and what action to take, see our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What It Means for You
Commuters
If you are commuting in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, or La Union today, expect rain throughout much of the day. Bring a waterproof bag and rain gear, allow extra travel time, and avoid underpasses or low-lying roads during heavy downpours where flash flooding is more likely. Commuters in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao should stay alert for sudden, intense afternoon thunderstorms that can disrupt traffic and flood streets quickly.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
This is the most urgent advisory today. Fisherfolk operating off the northern and western coasts of the country — particularly along the Ilocos coastline and the western seaboard — face moderate to rough seas with waves up to 3.4 meters. Small boats and bancas should not venture into these waters. Even in calmer sea areas, isolated thunderstorms can produce sudden squalls. Check PAGASA's latest sea bulletins before heading out, and consider waiting until sea conditions improve.
Farmers
Farmers in the Ilocos Region and La Union dealing with persistent monsoon rains should secure crops and farm equipment against flooding and strong winds. Those in other parts of the country should take advantage of partly fair conditions while they last but remain prepared for afternoon downpours, particularly in low-lying or flood-prone agricultural areas.
Students and Parents
Parents in Northern Luzon's western provinces — especially Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union — should monitor local government announcements on class suspensions, as scattered rains and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day. In other areas, the risk of isolated thunderstorms, while lower, is still real. Prepare children with umbrellas or raincoats, particularly for afternoon dismissal times when convective storms tend to peak.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, and others working outdoors across the country should be prepared for sudden rain at any time, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours when localized thunderstorms are most likely to develop. In Northern Luzon's western section, where the monsoon is active, rain is expected to persist more consistently through the day.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA recorded a maximum temperature of 31.3°C in Metro Manila in its previous 24-hour observation period, with the minimum dipping to 24.4°C at 5:00 AM. Relative humidity reached a maximum of 95% and a minimum of 62% at 12:00 noon. The high humidity combined with warm temperatures means that even areas not receiving heavy rain may feel uncomfortably muggy. Outdoor workers and those without access to cooling should stay hydrated and avoid prolonged sun exposure during peak afternoon hours.
Tides and Astronomical Information
PAGASA's bulletin includes tidal and astronomical data for Metro Manila, though specific figures in the source document were partially unclear. Coastal residents and fisherfolk in Manila Bay and nearby shores should consult PAGASA's tidal charts for precise high- and low-tide timings to plan water-based activities safely.
Tracking Tropical Storm Josie
While Tropical Storm Josie poses no immediate threat to the Philippines as of Tuesday's 3:00 AM bulletin, its northwestward movement at 23 km/h means its track deserves continued public attention. PAGASA will issue updated bulletins as more data becomes available. The public is urged not to be complacent: the storm's eventual path, intensity changes, and potential interaction with the monsoon could alter the weather picture significantly in the days ahead.
PAGASA advisory: "At 3:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm 'JOSIE' (HAISHEN) was estimated based on all available data at 1,095 km East of Eastern Visayas (12.9°N, 134.7°E) with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h. It is moving Northwestward at 23 km/h."
Bottom Line
If you are in the Ilocos Region or La Union, prepare for a rainy Tuesday with a real risk of flash floods — avoid flood-prone areas and do not let fisherfolk head out into rough northern and western seas. For the rest of the country, isolated thunderstorms remain possible; carry rain gear and stay tuned to PAGASA updates as Tropical Storm Josie continues to be tracked in the Pacific.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.