QUEZON CITY, October 1, 2026 — Parts of the Visayas and Mindanao are waking up to rain, dark skies, and the threat of thunderstorms this Thursday as the trough of Tropical Storm Choi-wan continues to influence weather across the southern and central Philippines, the state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its morning forecast bulletin.
The storm remains far beyond Philippine territory — sitting roughly 2,945 kilometers east of Central Luzon — but its extended outer weather system, known as a trough, is already making its presence felt in several provinces. The rest of the country, including Metro Manila and most of Luzon, faces a generally fair but partly cloudy day, with only isolated rain showers expected from localized weather patterns.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
A trough is an elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure that extends outward from a tropical cyclone. Even when a storm is thousands of kilometers away and well outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), its trough can reach into the country and funnel moisture-laden clouds toward certain areas — in this case, the eastern flanks of Visayas and Mindanao. Think of it as the long arm of a distant storm, capable of delivering rain even when the storm itself poses no direct threat of landfall.
As of 5:00 AM today, Tropical Storm Choi-wan (international designation 2627) was located at 16.5°N, 140.7°E, packing maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour near the center and gusts of up to 90 kph. It was moving west-northwestward at 75 kph. PAGASA confirmed it remains outside PAR and is not expected to enter Philippine territory in the immediate term based on today's bulletin.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
Most of Luzon — including Metro Manila, the Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, the Cordillera Administrative Region, and Bicol — is expected to experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated, localized rain showers and thunderstorms through the day. These brief rain episodes are not linked to Choi-wan's trough but rather to normal atmospheric heating and moisture typical during this time of year. No widespread or prolonged rainfall is forecast for any part of Luzon based on today's PAGASA bulletin. The general weather picture across the island group remains manageable.
Visayas
Conditions are noticeably different in the Visayas, particularly in its eastern sections. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for Eastern Visayas, with rainfall that may at times become moderate to heavy. Residents in provinces such as Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Western Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, and Biliran should be on alert for possible flooding and landslides during intense rain bursts.
The rest of the Visayas — including the Western and Central Visayas — can expect partly cloudy skies with isolated, localized rain showers. While not as heavily affected as the eastern portions, brief thunderstorms remain possible in these areas as well.
Mindanao
Mindanao bears the brunt of Choi-wan's trough today alongside Eastern Visayas. Caraga, Davao Oriental, Northern Mindanao, and the rest of the Davao Region are all forecast to have cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, some capable of becoming moderate to occasionally heavy. PAGASA specifically flags Surigao del Norte as part of the areas facing these wetter conditions.
Residents in low-lying and mountainous areas of Caraga and Davao Oriental should exercise particular vigilance. Flash flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible during heavy downpours. The rest of Mindanao faces partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers driven by localized weather disturbances rather than Choi-wan's trough directly.
Decoding the Warnings: What Does Each Advisory Mean?
PAGASA's bulletin does not raise any tropical cyclone wind signal for any part of the Philippines today, as Choi-wan remains well outside PAR. However, the forecast for scattered to isolated thunderstorms in affected areas carries its own set of practical implications for residents and travelers.
It is important to understand how weather advisories work when conditions change. For a full guide on interpreting rainfall warnings, tropical cyclone wind signals, and heat-index categories, refer to this resource on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings. Being familiar with these levels helps you respond appropriately when advisories are issued in your area.
While no color-coded rainfall warning has been issued in today's bulletin, PAGASA's language — "moderate to heavy at times" — signals that residents in Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Oriental should not be caught off guard. Heavy rain concentrated in a short period can trigger flash floods even without a formal warning in place. Do not wait for a warning to take precautionary action if water is rising in your area.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
PAGASA has issued the following coastal water and wind outlook for today:
- Eastern sections of Visayas: Light to moderate winds from the northeast to east; coastal waters slight to moderate.
- Northern Mindanao and northeastern Mindanao coast: Light to moderate winds from the northeast; slight to moderate seas.
- Rest of Mindanao: Light to moderate winds from the south to southwest; slight to moderate coastal waters (0.6 to 1.2 meters wave height).
While these conditions are not categorized as dangerous, moderate seas can still pose risks for small, non-motorized watercraft. Fisherfolk and boat operators should exercise caution, particularly along the eastern and northern coasts of Mindanao and the eastern coast of the Visayas where the trough's influence is most direct.
What It Means for You
Commuters
If you live in or travel through Eastern Visayas, Caraga, or the Davao Region, prepare for disrupted road conditions. Rain-soaked streets, reduced visibility during thunderstorms, and possible flooding in low-lying urban areas are real possibilities today. Leave earlier than usual, keep an eye on local government advisories, and avoid flood-prone routes. Commuters in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon can expect a relatively normal day, though a light rain jacket is never a bad idea given isolated shower chances.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Coastal waters along Eastern Visayas and parts of Mindanao are forecast at slight to moderate levels, reaching wave heights of up to 1.2 meters in some areas. Operators of small bancas and non-motorized boats are strongly advised to stay close to shore or delay trips until seas settle. Thunderstorms can develop quickly in the affected areas, making conditions unpredictable on the water.
Farmers
For farmers in Caraga, Davao Oriental, and Eastern Visayas, today's scattered to moderate-to-heavy rains may be beneficial for some crops but damaging to others — particularly those in low-lying fields vulnerable to waterlogging. Harvest activities should be planned around the morning hours when conditions may be lighter. Protect harvested crops and equipment from potential flash flooding.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents in Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Oriental should monitor local government announcements closely. While no class suspensions have been announced based on today's PAGASA bulletin, the potential for moderate to heavy rain during school hours means conditions could change quickly. Ensure children carry rain gear and are dropped off or picked up from safe, elevated areas away from drainage channels.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, and others who work outdoors in the affected regions should factor in the likelihood of rain disruptions. Electrical hazards increase during thunderstorms — cease work near metal structures, tall objects, or open fields at the first sign of lightning. In the rest of the country where only isolated showers are expected, outdoor work can proceed normally with standard precautions.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA's 24-hour weather station readings recorded at the Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City — representative of Metro Manila's conditions — showed a maximum temperature of 38.1°C at 7:20 PM yesterday and a minimum of 26°C. Relative humidity reached a maximum of 84% at 6:00 AM. These figures reflect the warm and humid conditions typical of the season across many lowland areas of the country.
For the rest of the country not under heavy rain influence, expect warm and humid conditions throughout the day, especially during midday and early afternoon hours. Residents in areas with direct sun exposure during dry spells should take precautions against heat stress — stay hydrated, seek shade during peak afternoon hours, and limit strenuous outdoor activity between 10:00 AM and 3:00 PM.
Tidal and Astronomical Reference
For Metro Manila, PAGASA notes the following reference data for today: Sunrise at approximately 5:49 AM and sunset at around 5:47 PM. Moonrise is noted at 2:56 AM and moonset at 9:54 AM. These figures are useful for fisherfolk, outdoor operators, and event planners timing their activities around daylight hours.
"Trough of Tropical Storm Choi-wan affecting the eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao." — PAGASA Weather Bulletin, October 1, 2026, 5:00 AM
Bottom Line
If you are in Eastern Visayas, Caraga, or the Davao Region today, treat the rain seriously — scattered thunderstorms capable of moderate to heavy bursts can trigger flash floods and landslides with little warning, even without a formal color-coded rainfall advisory in place. Stay informed, avoid flood-prone areas, and hold off on sea travel if you operate a small boat. The rest of the country can go about the day normally while keeping a light rain jacket handy for isolated afternoon showers.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph