QUEZON CITY, September 18, 2026 — A tropical depression churning well east of the Philippine archipelago, combined with easterly winds funneling moisture over Northern Luzon, is setting the stage for a rainy and unsettled Thursday across much of the country, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
In its 5:00 AM forecast bulletin dated September 18, 2026, PAGASA said the tropical depression — currently located about 2,675 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas, near an area identified as Bahia Toque — remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Despite its distance, the system is part of the broader weather pattern affecting the country today, while easterlies continue to drive rain and cloud cover over the far north.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
Two key weather drivers are at work today. The first is the tropical depression sitting far to the east of the Visayas. A tropical depression is a weather system with organized rotating winds and a defined center, but not yet strong enough to be classified as a tropical storm. With maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gusts reaching up to 70 km/h, it is moving north-northeastward at a slow pace of 5 km/h. Because it remains 2,675 km away and outside PAR, PAGASA has not issued any tropical cyclone wind signals for any part of the country in connection with this system.
The second driver is the easterlies — steady winds blowing in from the Pacific Ocean toward the eastern side of the Philippine landmass. Easterlies carry warm, moist ocean air that, when it meets land or rises over mountains, releases that moisture as rain showers and thunderstorms. Today, PAGASA says the easterlies are directly affecting Northern Luzon, particularly the Batanes and Babuyan Islands.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Northern Luzon: Batanes and Babuyan Islands
Residents of the Batanes and Babuyan Islands — the northernmost populated islands of the Philippines — should brace for the most unsettled conditions today. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over these islands, all driven by the easterlies. The agency warns of possible flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms. Residents in low-lying coastal communities and on hillside slopes should remain on alert throughout the day.
Metro Manila and the Rest of the Country
Metro Manila and the majority of the country — spanning the rest of Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, according to PAGASA. These localized thunderstorms, while less widespread than those in the far north, still carry the risk of flash floods or landslides in vulnerable areas. Residents living near rivers, creeks, or steep terrain should stay informed and be ready to move to higher ground if water levels rise quickly.
Visayas
The Visayas region, while not directly under the influence of the tropical depression still far at sea, will experience partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with the chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms — consistent with the general nationwide pattern described in PAGASA's bulletin. No tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised for the region.
Mindanao
Mindanao similarly falls under the nationwide partly cloudy to cloudy outlook, with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms possible. PAGASA's wind forecast indicates light to moderate winds over Mindanao, with slight to moderate wave conditions along its coastal waters.
Wind and Sea Conditions Nationwide
PAGASA's wind and coastal water forecast paints a broadly manageable but still cautious picture for all sea areas. Across Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, winds are expected to be light to moderate, blowing from varying directions including east to northeast. Coastal wave heights are forecast at slight to moderate levels across all major sea areas.
While these conditions are not as dangerous as those during a full typhoon, moderate waves can still pose risks to small, non-motorized watercraft. Fisherfolk and boat operators should consult PAGASA's latest marine weather advisories before departing.
Decoding the Warnings: What the Forecast Levels Mean
PAGASA's bulletin notes that thunderstorms in affected areas carry the risk of flash floods and landslides. These are not formal color-coded rainfall warnings in the advisory provided, but the agency's language signals that residents — especially those in flood-prone barangays and communities on slopes — should treat approaching thunderstorms seriously.
The tropical depression outside PAR currently carries no tropical cyclone wind signals for any part of the Philippines. This means no mandatory evacuations or signal-level preparations are triggered by this system today. However, conditions can change, and PAGASA will issue updated bulletins if the storm's track or intensity shifts in a way that warrants closer attention.
If you want to better understand the full range of PAGASA warnings — from rainfall color codes to storm signal numbers — read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings so you always know what action each level calls for.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
For the 24-hour period ending 8:00 PM on September 17, 2026, PAGASA's weather station at the Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City, recorded the following conditions:
- Maximum temperature: 27°C
- Minimum temperature: 24.7°C (recorded at 6:00 AM)
- Maximum relative humidity: 98%
- Minimum relative humidity: recorded at 11:00 AM
These readings reflect warm, humid conditions typical of the rainy season. The near-saturation humidity level (98% maximum) means the air is holding almost as much moisture as it possibly can — a condition that makes it feel stickier and hotter than the thermometer reading alone suggests, and one that contributes to the ease with which thunderstorms can develop throughout the day.
What It Means for You
Commuters
Expect the possibility of sudden, heavy downpours — particularly in the afternoon and evening when thunderstorms are most likely to develop. If you are commuting in Metro Manila or in any urban area, keep an umbrella or rain gear on hand. Check road conditions before heading out, as even isolated thunderstorms can cause localized flooding on low-lying streets.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
PAGASA's forecast of slight to moderate coastal waves across all major Philippine sea areas means conditions are not ideal for small, non-motorized vessels. Light to moderate winds are expected, but wave heights can still be challenging for bancas and outrigger boats. Fisherfolk are advised to monitor the latest PAGASA marine advisories and exercise caution, particularly in waters off the Batanes and Babuyan Islands where conditions are most active today.
Farmers
Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the country may be beneficial for rain-fed crops, but the risk of flash floods and landslides in mountainous agricultural areas warrants attention. Farmers in upland provinces should be cautious about leaving equipment or livestock in low-lying fields prone to sudden flooding during heavy thunderstorms.
Students, Parents, and Schools
While no class suspensions have been ordered under PAGASA's current forecast, the presence of isolated thunderstorms throughout the day means conditions could deteriorate quickly and locally. Parents should ensure children have rain gear and know what to do if weather worsens while they are in transit. Schools in flood-prone areas should monitor local government weather advisories.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, street vendors, and others who work outdoors should watch the sky carefully today. Thunderstorms can develop with little warning during the rainy season, and lightning is a real danger for those without shelter. Seek sturdy indoor shelter at the first sign of thunder, and do not wait for heavy rain to start before looking for cover.
Bottom Line
The single most important thing you can do today: Stay alert to fast-changing local weather throughout the day. The tropical depression is still far from the Philippines and poses no immediate threat, but scattered thunderstorms across the country — especially in the Batanes and Babuyan Islands — can bring sudden flash floods and landslides. Keep an eye on PAGASA's updates, carry rain gear, and avoid low-lying or flood-prone areas during heavy rain.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.