QUEZON CITY, November 2, 2026 — Most Filipinos will wake up this Monday to cloudy skies with the threat of rain showers and thunderstorms that could trigger flash floods and landslides in the most severe episodes, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned in its 4:00 AM forecast issued today, valid until 4:00 AM on Tuesday, November 3.
Only the northernmost parts of the country — the Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Cagayan Valley — will see calmer conditions, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated light rains. The rest of the Philippines faces a day of unsettled weather driven by localized thunderstorms.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
Two systems are shaping Monday's weather across the archipelago.
The northeast monsoon, known locally as amihan, is the dominant force over Extreme Northern Luzon. The amihan is a seasonal wind pattern that brings cool, dry air from the Asian continent into the northern Philippines, typically producing overcast but relatively stable conditions with only light rainfall — which is exactly what the Ilocos Region, Cordillera, and Cagayan Valley are experiencing today.
For the rest of the country, localized thunderstorms are the culprit. These are convective weather events — essentially columns of warm, moisture-laden air that rise rapidly, cool, and release energy as heavy rain, lightning, and strong winds. Because they are localized rather than driven by a single large weather system, they can develop and dissipate quickly and unpredictably, making them difficult to pin down to specific towns or barangays hours in advance.
Separately, PAGASA reports that Typhoon In-fa (2631) is currently located approximately 2,175 kilometers east of Extreme Northern Luzon, at coordinates 22.1°N, 142.8°E, with maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h near the center and gusts of up to 170 km/h. The typhoon is moving westward at 15 km/h. Critically, In-fa remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as of 3:00 AM today and is not directly producing the weather conditions being felt across the country at this time. The public should continue to monitor PAGASA bulletins as the system's track is updated.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
In Extreme Northern Luzon — covering the Ilocos Region (Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan), the Cordillera Administrative Region (Benguet, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Abra, Apayao, Kalinga), and Cagayan Valley (Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Batanes) — conditions will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated light rains. The northeast monsoon keeps this belt relatively stable, but residents should still watch for localized showers, particularly in elevated mountainous terrain.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon — including Central Luzon (Region III), CALABARZON (Region IV-A), MIMAROPA (Region IV-B), and the Bicol Region (Region V) — will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. PAGASA specifically flags the risk of flash floods and landslides during severe thunderstorm episodes. Residents in low-lying areas, near rivers, and in communities on hillsides or mountain slopes should remain on alert.
Visayas
All three Visayas regions — Western Visayas (Region VI), Central Visayas (Region VII), and Eastern Visayas (Region VIII) — fall under the general nationwide forecast of partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms caused by localized convection. Flash floods and landslides remain possible in areas struck by severe storms. Residents in hilly provinces such as Leyte, Samar, and the upland areas of Cebu and Negros should exercise particular caution.
Mindanao
All of Mindanao — including Zamboanga Peninsula (Region IX), Northern Mindanao (Region X), Davao Region (Region XI), SOCCSKSARGEN (Region XII), Caraga (Region XIII), and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) — is likewise under the same forecast of partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms. Flash floods and landslides are flagged as potential hazards during the most intense storm bursts.
Wind and Sea Conditions Nationwide
Winds across the entire country will blow from the northeast to east at light to moderate strength throughout the forecast period. Coastal waters nationwide will range from slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.5 meters.
While "slight" seas (0.6 to 1.25 meters) are generally manageable for larger vessels, the "moderate" end of this range (1.25 to 2.5 meters) can pose significant risk to small bancas and outrigger boats. Fisherfolk and small-boat operators are advised to assess sea conditions carefully before departing and to heed any advisories from local coast guard units.
Understanding Today's Warnings
PAGASA has not raised any Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal for Typhoon In-fa, as the system remains well outside PAR and is not affecting the country. No gale warning, rainfall warning (yellow, orange, or red), or heat index advisory appears in today's forecast bulletin.
However, the agency specifically notes the risk of flash floods and landslides during severe thunderstorms for Metro Manila and the rest of the country outside Extreme Northern Luzon. This is an impact-based advisory — it means that while no formal color-coded rainfall warning has been raised nationally at bulletin time, conditions are favorable for dangerous, fast-moving floods and slope failures when thunderstorms intensify. Residents should understand what different warning levels mean and what actions to take; for a full explainer, see how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
Local government units and PAGASA's regional offices may issue specific warnings as conditions develop during the day. Always check for updates.
What It Means for You
Commuters
Expect the possibility of sudden, heavy downpours at any point during the day in Metro Manila and most other urban centers. Roads in low-lying areas can flood quickly during thunderstorms. Leave earlier than usual to avoid being caught in flash flooding, keep an eye on PAGASA's real-time updates, and have a rain kit — umbrella, waterproof bag cover — ready.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Coastal waters are forecast to be slight to moderate, with waves reaching up to 2.5 meters on the higher end. Small bancas and outrigger fishing vessels can be at risk in moderate seas. Assess conditions at your departure point and coordinate with local maritime authorities before heading out. If thunderstorms are building offshore, return to port immediately.
Farmers
Isolated thunderstorms can bring intense but brief rainfall. In areas with sloping terrain — particularly in the Cordillera, Visayas highlands, and Mindanao — be alert to the risk of soil erosion and landslides following heavy rain bursts. Protect harvested crops and equipment from sudden downpours.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Thunderstorms can develop quickly, including during school hours. Parents should monitor PAGASA updates and local government announcements for any class suspension orders, particularly in areas historically prone to flash flooding. Keep children indoors during lightning activity.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, transport workers, and others who spend the day outdoors across most of the country should prepare for the possibility of sudden heavy rain and lightning. Seek shelter in a sturdy building — not under trees or near metal structures — the moment thunderstorms approach.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's latest temperature readings, recorded at the Science Garden weather station in Diliman, Quezon City for the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM yesterday (Sunday, November 1), show a maximum temperature of 31.6°C recorded at 12:00 PM and a minimum of 25.2°C recorded at 5:00 AM. Relative humidity peaked at 92% at 5:00 AM and dropped to a minimum of 64% at 12:00 PM. These figures are for Metro Manila only and are provided as the most recent official readings from PAGASA's reference station.
No heat index advisory has been issued for today's forecast period.
Tides and Astronomical Information for Metro Manila
For Manila Bay today, PAGASA and NAMRIA report a high tide of 1.14 meters at 2:16 AM and a low tide of -0.15 meters at 2:50 PM. Sunrise over Metro Manila is at 5:52 AM and sunset at 5:27 PM. The moon's illumination stands at 43%, with moonset at 12:36 PM.
Bottom Line
Bottom line: Thunderstorms could strike almost anywhere in the Philippines today, Monday, November 2, 2026 — outside of Extreme Northern Luzon — and flash floods and landslides are real risks when they hit hardest. Stay alert throughout the day, avoid low-lying and flood-prone areas during heavy rain, and keep updated through official PAGASA channels.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.