QUEZON CITY — Isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected to affect the entire Philippines on Thursday, July 16, 2026, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). The agency's 24-hour forecast, issued at 4:00 AM today and valid until 4:00 AM on July 17, warns that severe thunderstorms could trigger flash floods and landslides in vulnerable areas nationwide.
While no tropical cyclone is currently threatening the country, Filipinos from Batanes in the far north to Mindanao in the south should not take the day's weather lightly. The combination of the southwest monsoon and localized thunderstorm activity means that even areas expecting only "partly cloudy" skies in the morning could see sudden, heavy downpours by afternoon.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
PAGASA identifies two separate weather drivers active today. The first is the southwest monsoon — known locally as habagat — which is directly affecting Extreme Northern Luzon. The habagat is the seasonal wind system that blows from the southwest between roughly June and September each year, carrying warm, moisture-laden air from the sea toward the Philippines. When it interacts with the terrain of northern island groups, it can produce persistent cloudiness and bouts of rain.
The second driver affecting Metro Manila and the rest of the country is localized thunderstorms. These are convective weather events — essentially, pockets of intense heat and moisture near the surface that rise rapidly into the atmosphere and release their energy as lightning, thunder, and heavy rain. Localized thunderstorms are often brief but can be intense, and they are capable of producing sudden flooding in low-lying urban areas and landslides on steep slopes.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
Batanes and Babuyan Islands (Extreme Northern Luzon) are under the direct influence of the southwest monsoon today. Residents of Batan, Itbayat, Sabtang, and the Babuyan island group should expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. PAGASA specifically flags the risk of flash floods and landslides during severe thunderstorms. Given the rugged terrain of these islands and their relative isolation, residents are strongly advised to stay informed and avoid unnecessary travel to high-risk areas during heavy rain.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon — including the Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Central Luzon, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, and Bicol Region — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms caused by localized thunderstorm activity. The same hazard of flash floods and landslides applies during severe thunderstorm episodes. Residents in mountainous provinces such as those in the Cordillera, as well as those living near waterways in urban areas, should be especially vigilant.
Visayas
The entire Visayas — covering the Western Visayas, Central Visayas, and Eastern Visayas regions — falls under the forecast for partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms driven by localized thunderstorm activity. PAGASA's warning of possible flash floods and landslides during severe thunderstorms applies here as well. Residents of provinces like Leyte, Samar, and areas with known landslide-prone terrain should monitor local weather conditions closely throughout the day.
Mindanao
All regions of Mindanao — including the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, Caraga, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) — are likewise forecast to experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. As with the rest of the country, localized thunderstorms are the primary driver, and the hazards of flash floods and landslides remain possible during severe episodes. Communities in flood-prone lowlands and on hillside slopes should remain on alert.
Decoding the Hazard Warnings
PAGASA's forecast for July 16, 2026 does not include a tropical cyclone wind signal or a colored rainfall warning at the time of issuance. However, the agency does flag a clear hazard: possible flash floods and landslides during severe thunderstorms — and this applies to the entire country.
This is not a minor footnote. Flash floods can develop within minutes when a thunderstorm dumps heavy rain over a small area, overwhelming drainage systems and rivers. Landslides can occur on slopes that have already been saturated by previous rains. You do not need a full-scale storm warning for these events to happen — a strong, isolated thunderstorm is enough. If you are unsure how PAGASA's different warning levels and color-coded systems work, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings to understand what each level means and when to act.
Residents in areas historically prone to flooding — particularly in low-lying barangays in Metro Manila, Cagayan Valley, Eastern Visayas, and Caraga — and those living near steep hillsides anywhere in the archipelago should not wait for a formal warning to take precautions. Preparedness before a thunderstorm hits is always more effective than response after it does.
What It Means for You
Commuters
Expect the possibility of sudden heavy downpours at any time of day, but particularly in the afternoon when surface heating typically makes thunderstorm activity more intense. If you rely on public transport in Metro Manila or other urban centers, build extra travel time into your schedule and bring a raincoat or umbrella. Avoid crossing flooded roads or underpasses — even shallow-looking floodwaters can be deceptively dangerous.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
PAGASA reports that coastal waters across the country are moderate, with wave heights ranging from 0.6 to 2.1 meters. Winds are blowing from the south to southwest at light to moderate intensity. While these conditions are not extreme, small bangka operators and fisherfolk venturing into open water should exercise caution. Wave conditions can deteriorate quickly when a thunderstorm passes overhead. PAGASA advises that sea travel, particularly for small vessels, carries elevated risk when thunderstorms are in the forecast.
Farmers
Isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms can bring both benefit and harm to agricultural communities. While moisture is welcome during the growing season, sudden intense rainfall associated with thunderstorms can cause soil erosion, damage standing crops, and cause flash flooding in low-lying farm areas. Farmers should check local drainage conditions and avoid field work in open areas during active thunderstorms due to lightning risk.
Students, Parents, and School Administrators
With localized thunderstorms possible throughout the day and across the entire country, parents and school administrators should monitor real-time weather updates — particularly for announcements from local government units and the Department of Education. Afternoon dismissal hours often coincide with peak thunderstorm activity. Ensure children have appropriate rain gear and arrange safe pickup or waiting areas that are away from flooding-prone zones.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Personnel
Workers in open or elevated areas — including construction sites, telecommunications workers, and agricultural laborers — face the dual risk of lightning and flash flooding during severe thunderstorms. Site supervisors should have a clear protocol for suspending work and moving personnel to safe shelter when thunder is heard or lightning is observed. Do not wait for the rain to start; by the time it does, a lightning strike may already be imminent.
Temperature and Heat Outlook
PAGASA's weather station at the Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 33.9°C at 2:00 PM yesterday (July 15), and a minimum of 24.7°C at 6:00 AM. Relative humidity ranged from a high of 93% at 6:00 AM to a low of 45% at 3:00 PM.
The high humidity combined with temperatures approaching 34°C means that even without direct sunlight, conditions can feel oppressive during the late morning and early afternoon. During breaks between showers, the heat and humidity combination may cause discomfort, especially for those working outdoors or in poorly ventilated spaces. Stay hydrated, seek shade during the hottest parts of the day, and be aware that the "feels like" temperature — accounting for humidity — will likely be higher than the thermometer reading suggests.
Tidal and Astronomical Information for Metro Manila
For reference, PAGASA and NAMRIA report that Manila Bay will experience a high tide of 1.57 meters at 10:51 AM today, with a low tide of -0.1 meters at 7:27 PM. Sunrise in Metro Manila is at 5:35 AM and sunset at 6:29 PM. The moon rises at 7:15 AM and sets at 8:16 PM, with only 6% illumination — a near-new moon — meaning nights will be dark, which is an additional consideration for communities without reliable lighting during power interruptions caused by storms.
Bottom Line
Bottom line: Thunderstorms are possible anywhere in the Philippines today, July 16, 2026 — not just in the far north. Whether you are in Metro Manila, a provincial city, or a coastal barangay, be ready for sudden heavy rain that can trigger flash floods and landslides. Do not enter flooded areas, stay away from slopes during heavy downpours, and check PAGASA updates before heading out or going to sea.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.