MANILA, August 20, 2026 — Millions of Filipinos across Luzon are waking up to wet and unsettled weather this Thursday as Tropical Depression "Neneng" churns north of Batanes and an active southwest monsoon pushes rain-laden winds deep into the main island. PAGASA, issuing its bulletin at 4:00 AM today, warns of flash flood and landslide risks in multiple provinces — while the rest of the country braces for isolated but potentially severe thunderstorms.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
Two forces are shaping the national weather picture today. The first is Tropical Depression "Neneng," whose center was located 300 kilometers north of Itbayat, Batanes at 3:00 AM this morning, based on all available data. Neneng carries maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center and gusts reaching up to 55 km/h. The system is moving west-northwestward at a fast pace of 30 km/h. While Neneng is currently outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) — meaning no tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised — its presence is significant because it is amplifying the second force: the southwest monsoon.
The southwest monsoon, known locally as habagat, is a seasonal wind flow that blows from the southwest and carries warm, moisture-rich air from the sea onto the western and northern parts of the Philippines. When a tropical cyclone or tropical depression is present in the region, it acts like a pump, pulling the habagat stronger and pushing greater volumes of rain into land areas — particularly the western coast of Luzon. That is what is happening today, and why several provinces are on alert for moderate to heavy rain.
Separately, a Tropical Storm named Saudel — a different system entirely — was located 2,560 kilometers east of northeastern Mindanao as of 5:00 AM today, with maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h and gusts of up to 90 km/h, moving northwestward at 25 km/h. PAGASA classifies Saudel as outside PAR at this time. It does not currently affect Philippine weather, but PAGASA is tracking it.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon: Heaviest Impact Today
The most significant weather is concentrated in Luzon, where the southwest monsoon is making its presence felt most forcefully.
Ilocos Region, Batanes, Zambales, and Bataan are forecast to receive occasional rain with moderate to heavy downpours throughout the day. PAGASA flags a real risk of flash floods in low-lying areas and landslides in hilly or mountainous terrain in these provinces. Residents in vulnerable communities — those near riverbanks, steep slopes, or coastal floodplains — should remain alert and ready to move if local authorities issue evacuation orders.
A broader swath of Luzon will also see unsettled conditions. Cagayan Valley, the rest of Central Luzon, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, and Palawan can expect cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. PAGASA notes that even in these areas, flash floods and landslides remain possible, particularly during the heavier episodes of rain. Residents should not be lulled by dry spells in the morning — conditions can deteriorate quickly.
For Metro Manila, which sits within the Central Luzon and CALABARZON overlap zone, expect a mostly cloudy day with scattered showers and periodic thunderstorms. Flooding in low-lying urban areas is possible during heavier bursts.
Visayas: Partly Cloudy With Isolated Thunderstorms
The Visayas will experience a generally calmer day compared to Luzon, but that does not mean clear skies. PAGASA forecasts partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with isolated thunderstorms across the region, driven by localized weather systems. These thunderstorms — while scattered — can produce intense but brief downpours capable of causing flash flooding in urban areas and low-lying communities. Residents should keep an eye on the sky and avoid crossing flooded roads.
Mindanao: Mostly Fair, Isolated Thunderstorms Possible
Most of Mindanao is forecast to have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms from localized weather systems. The risk of flash floods or landslides exists wherever these thunderstorms develop, but the general weather picture for Mindanao today is more favorable than in Luzon. Outdoor activities can proceed with caution — but residents should monitor conditions throughout the day as localized storms can intensify quickly.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Alert Level Means
No tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised anywhere in the Philippines as of this bulletin, since Neneng remains outside PAR. However, PAGASA's forecast does carry meaningful implied hazard language — specifically, the risk of flash floods and landslides from moderate to heavy rainfall in Luzon provinces.
If you are unsure what different PAGASA warning levels mean — from rainfall color codes to storm signals — this guide explains it plainly: how to read PAGASA's weather warnings. Knowing the difference between a yellow and orange rainfall warning, for instance, can help you decide whether to shelter in place or evacuate.
For today, the key hazard is the combination of moderate to heavy rain over areas already saturated by weeks of wet season weather. Even without a formal warning signal, saturated soil means landslides can occur more easily, and rivers can overflow faster than usual.
Winds and Coastal Waters: Dangerous Seas Along Luzon's Coast
PAGASA is flagging hazardous sea conditions that will affect maritime travel and fishing operations today:
The northern and western sections of Luzon face rough to very rough seas, with wave heights reaching moderate to strong levels driven by southwest winds. This is a serious condition for any vessel — fishing boats and small craft should not venture into these waters. Even larger commercial vessels should exercise extreme caution.
The eastern section of the country will see moderate seas with slight to moderate wave heights under southerly winds.
The rest of the country's coastal waters — including most of Visayas and Mindanao — will experience light to moderate seas, which are generally manageable for larger vessels but still warrant caution for small boats and fisherfolk.
PAGASA reminds all small boat operators to heed advisories before setting out to sea. Conditions can change rapidly, particularly near systems like Neneng.
What Today's Weather Means for You
Commuters in Metro Manila and Luzon Cities
Expect traffic disruption from localized flooding during heavy rain bursts. Leave earlier than usual, keep an eye on local government announcements regarding road closures, and avoid underpasses or low-lying streets that are prone to flooding. If you use public transport, anticipate delays.
Fisherfolk and Small Boat Operators
Do not go out to sea along the northern and western coasts of Luzon today. PAGASA's forecast of rough to very rough seas makes conditions life-threatening for small watercraft. Even along the eastern coast and in Visayas and Mindanao waters where seas are lighter, exercise caution and check with your local coast guard before departing.
Farmers
Farmers in Ilocos, Batanes, and western Luzon provinces should secure crops, equipment, and livestock against moderate to heavy rainfall. Flooding in low-lying agricultural areas is a real possibility today. In the rest of Luzon, scattered thunderstorms may be intense but short-lived — still enough to damage unharvested crops. Coordinate with your local agricultural office for any advisories.
Students and Parents
Parents in Luzon, particularly in Ilocos, Batanes, Zambales, Bataan, and the greater Manila area, should monitor announcements from DepEd and local government units regarding class suspensions. Rain is expected to persist throughout the day in many provinces, and schools in flood-prone areas may be affected. Check official local government social media pages for real-time updates.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Personnel
Workers in construction, agriculture, and other outdoor industries across Luzon should take shelter during thunderstorms — lightning is a serious risk. In areas flagged for landslide hazard, outdoor work near slopes or hillsides should be postponed if rain intensifies. Follow safety protocols set by your employer and local disaster risk reduction offices.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA's temperature and relative humidity data for the 24-hour period ending yesterday morning shows a maximum temperature of 27.9°C recorded at 2:00 PM and a minimum of 24.4°C at 2:00 AM at the Manila observation station. Relative humidity reached a maximum of 98 percent and a minimum of 84 percent — underscoring the heavy moisture content in the atmosphere that is contributing to the persistent cloud cover and rain potential across the country.
With high humidity and warm temperatures, outdoor workers and those without access to cooling should stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade, even on overcast days. High humidity can make heat feel more oppressive even when actual temperatures seem moderate.
Bottom Line
If you are in Luzon — especially Ilocos Region, Batanes, Zambales, Bataan, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, or Mindoro — take flash floods and landslides seriously today. The southwest monsoon, strengthened by Tropical Depression Neneng to the north, is funneling significant rain into these areas. Do not cross flooded roads, avoid riverbanks and hillside areas during heavy rain, and stay tuned to your local government for any evacuation advisories. Fisherfolk along northern and western Luzon should stay ashore — seas are rough and conditions are dangerous.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.