MANILA, August 2, 2026 — Tropical Depression "Luis" is making its presence felt across parts of Luzon this Sunday, as the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warns of heavy rain, rough seas, and potential flooding and landslides in several provinces. The agency issued its 24-hour public weather forecast at 4:00 AM today, valid until 4:00 AM on Monday, August 3, 2026.
While much of the Visayas and Mindanao will see relatively calmer conditions, millions of Filipinos in Luzon — particularly along the Pacific-facing eastern seaboard — are urged to stay alert and avoid unnecessary travel to flood-prone and landslide-prone areas today.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
The main driver of today's unsettled weather in Luzon is Tropical Depression "Luis." According to PAGASA, as of 3:00 AM this morning, the center of Luis was estimated to be approximately 18 kilometers east of Divilacan, Isabela (at coordinates 17.4°N, 122.8°E). It carries maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center, with gusts reaching up to 100 km/h, and is moving slowly in a west-southwestward direction.
A tropical depression is the weakest category of a tropical cyclone — essentially a cluster of thunderstorms organized around a low-pressure center. Even at this relatively modest intensity, Luis is capable of dumping significant rainfall over a wide area, particularly along and near its track across Luzon's eastern coast. Its slow movement means affected areas could experience prolonged periods of heavy rain, increasing the risk of flooding and landslides in low-lying and mountainous communities.
PAGASA is also monitoring Super Typhoon Dolphin, an extremely powerful storm currently located approximately 310 kilometers east of extreme northern Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h and gusts of up to 230 km/h, moving west-northwestward at 15 km/h. As of this bulletin, Dolphin remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is not directly affecting Philippine weather at this time. However, Filipinos — especially in the northern tip of Luzon — should continue monitoring updates on this system.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon: Heavy Rain in the East, Unsettled Conditions Widespread
The most severely affected areas today are in eastern and central Luzon. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms — with the possibility of heavy to intense rainfall — for the following provinces and areas:
Cagayan Valley and nearby provinces: Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and the rest of the Cagayan Valley region are forecast to experience the brunt of Luis's rainfall, as the storm is currently located very close to Isabela's coastline.
CALABARZON and Bicol Region: Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes are also under a significant rain threat. Residents in these provinces should watch for flash flooding, especially in river systems and low-lying barangays, and landslides in mountainous communities.
Metro Manila, Batangas, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Bulacan, and other parts of Central and Southern Luzon: These areas can expect cloudy to partly cloudy skies with possible isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, also as an indirect effect of Luis's moisture and circulation.
The rest of Luzon — including the Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Mimaropa — may experience partly cloudy conditions with isolated rain showers, particularly in the afternoon and evening when convective activity typically peaks.
Visayas: Mostly Fair With Isolated Showers
The Visayas — covering Eastern Visayas, Western Visayas, and Central Visayas — will generally see partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, most likely in the afternoon. No widespread or heavy rain is forecast for the Visayas at this time. Conditions are relatively more settled compared to Luzon, though residents should still be cautious of localized thunderstorms that can develop quickly during the afternoon hours.
Mindanao: Fair to Partly Cloudy
Most of Mindanao — including Davao Region, Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Soccsksargen, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), and Zamboanga Peninsula — will experience partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. No significant weather disturbances are expected to directly affect Mindanao today, making it the most settled part of the country as of this bulletin.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Level Means for You
PAGASA's forecast for several Luzon provinces flags the risk of heavy to intense rainfall driven by Tropical Depression Luis. It is important for readers to understand what these terms mean in practical terms. Not sure how to read PAGASA's warning systems? Read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings — covering rainfall color codes, tropical cyclone wind signals, and heat index categories.
Heavy rainfall in PAGASA's framework typically corresponds to a Yellow Rainfall Warning, meaning rain is falling at a rate that can cause flooding in low-lying areas within one to three hours. Residents in flood-prone communities should begin preparing to evacuate if local authorities issue evacuation orders.
Intense rainfall — which PAGASA warns is possible in the most severely affected provinces — corresponds to an Orange Rainfall Warning, meaning rain is intense enough to cause significant and potentially dangerous flooding in a short period. If you are in a flood or landslide-prone area and this warning is issued locally, evacuate immediately when directed by authorities.
Regarding Tropical Depression Luis specifically: PAGASA has not raised a formal Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal over any area as of the 4:00 AM bulletin. Residents should continue monitoring updates, as wind signals may be raised as the storm moves and intensifies or weakens.
Coastal Waters and Sea Conditions
PAGASA's forecast for coastal waters is as follows:
Luzon Sea (including Babuyan Channel and areas directly influenced by Luis): Seas are forecast to be rough to very rough, with wave heights potentially elevated due to the storm's proximity. Small seacraft and fishing boats are strongly advised to remain in port or seek shelter.
Visayas and other coastal areas: Winds are forecast to be light to moderate, with seas ranging from slight to moderate (wave heights of 0.5 to 1.5 meters). While conditions are more manageable, small boat operators should still exercise caution, particularly during afternoon thunderstorms.
What Today's Forecast Means for You
Commuters and Motorists
If you are traveling today within the affected provinces in Luzon — particularly Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes — expect road flooding and reduced visibility due to heavy rain. Give yourself significantly more travel time, avoid flood-prone underpasses and roads near river banks, and do not attempt to cross flooded roads regardless of how shallow the water appears.
Fisherfolk and Small Boat Operators
PAGASA's coastal water forecast strongly signals that small boat operators — especially those in the waters off eastern Luzon, Cagayan Valley, and Bicol — should not venture out to sea today. Rough to very rough seas driven by Tropical Depression Luis pose a serious danger to small and medium-sized watercraft. Stay ashore until PAGASA lifts any sea advisories and conditions clearly improve.
Farmers and Agricultural Workers
Farmers in the rain-affected provinces of Cagayan Valley and Bicol should secure crops and equipment against flooding. Heavy to intense rain can damage recently planted or harvested crops and may cause soil erosion in upland farms. Coordinate with your local agriculture office for guidance on protecting your livelihood during the storm's passage.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents and students in the provinces under heavy rain risk — particularly in eastern Luzon — should monitor local government announcements regarding class suspensions. Local chief executives have the authority to suspend classes based on prevailing conditions, so check your local government's official social media pages and announcements early this morning before sending children to school.
Outdoor and Construction Workers
Workers who are required to operate outdoors in affected areas — including construction workers, delivery riders, and utility crew — should postpone non-essential outdoor tasks in provinces under heavy to intense rain warnings. Strong winds and lightning associated with thunderstorms also pose hazards. Employers are reminded of their obligation to ensure the safety of workers during severe weather events.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA recorded temperature and humidity extremes for the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM yesterday from its weather station in Science Garden, Quezon City. The maximum temperature recorded was 34.4°C, while the minimum temperature dipped to 24.4°C at 2:00 AM. Relative humidity reached a minimum of 61% at 2:00 PM, indicating warm and somewhat dry conditions in Metro Manila during the previous afternoon — though today's increased cloud cover from Luis may moderate daytime temperatures in parts of Luzon.
Residents in areas not directly affected by Luis — including most of Visayas and Mindanao — should still be mindful of heat during the afternoon hours, as partly cloudy conditions and high humidity can still make it feel significantly hotter than the thermometer reading.
Bottom Line
Bottom line: If you are in Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, or Catanduanes, the single most important thing you should do today is stay informed and stay away from flood-prone and landslide-prone areas. Tropical Depression Luis is slow-moving and close to shore, meaning heavy to intense rain could persist for many hours — giving floodwaters time to rise dangerously. Do not wait for floodwater to reach your door before acting; prepare early and heed all local evacuation orders immediately.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.