MANILA, August 3, 2026 — Tropical Depression Luis is parked to the east of Aurora province this Monday morning, barely moving, and its influence is being felt across a wide swath of Luzon. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued its forecast at 4:00 AM today, warning of gusty rains, flash flood risks, and landslide threats in multiple provinces — while severe thunderstorms remain a concern for the rest of the country through 4:00 AM Tuesday.
Residents across Luzon, parts of the Visayas, and even portions of Mindanao should factor changing and hazardous weather into their plans for the day.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
The primary culprit today is Tropical Depression Luis, which PAGASA located at approximately 780 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora (coordinates 15.9°N, 123.3°E) as of 3:00 AM Monday. It carries maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, with gusts reaching up to 70 km/h. Critically, the system is described as almost stationary — meaning it is barely moving and will continue to pump moisture and disturbed weather toward Luzon for an extended period.
A tropical depression is a rotating weather system with organized thunderstorms and surface winds between 36 and 61 km/h. Even at this relatively modest strength, a nearly stationary tropical depression can be especially dangerous because it keeps dumping rain on the same areas hour after hour, dramatically increasing the risk of flash floods, swollen rivers, and landslides in mountainous terrain.
PAGASA also noted that Typhoon Dolphin (international designation 2613) is located approximately 2,850 kilometers east-northeast of extreme northern Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h and gusts of up to 190 km/h, moving west-northwestward at 75 km/h. Dolphin is currently outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility and does not pose a direct threat to any part of the country at this time. Readers should monitor updates in case its track changes.
Beyond Luis, the southwest monsoon — locally known as habagat — is enhancing rainfall over the western portions of the Visayas. The habagat is the seasonal flow of warm, moisture-laden winds from the southwest that typically affects the Philippines from June through September, and it can intensify significantly when a tropical cyclone is present in the region.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
The most directly affected areas in Luzon are those closest to TD Luis's moisture field. PAGASA forecasts rains with gusty winds — carrying a risk of moderate to heavy rain and its associated hazards — for the following areas:
- Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao (Cordillera Administrative Region and Cagayan Valley)
- Aurora, Quezon, and Camarines Norte (Aurora and the northern portion of Bicol Region)
In these provinces, PAGASA explicitly warns of possible flash floods and landslides due to moderate to heavy rains. The risk to life and property from strong winds is described as minimal to minor in these areas — the greater danger is from the sustained rainfall and its effect on waterways and unstable slopes.
A broader band of areas across Luzon will also experience cloudy skies with rains, again carrying a risk of flash floods or landslides:
- Metro Manila
- Ilocos Region
- Central Luzon
- The rest of the Cordillera Administrative Region (provinces not listed above)
- The rest of Cagayan Valley (provinces not listed above)
- The rest of CALABARZON (provinces not listed above)
- Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, and Marinduque
Residents throughout Metro Manila and the surrounding regions should brace for a wet Monday, with flood-prone streets and low-lying communities at elevated risk.
Visayas
In the Visayas, it is the southwest monsoon (habagat) — not TD Luis directly — that is producing hazardous conditions. PAGASA specifically names Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, and Negros Occidental as areas where cloudy skies with rains are expected, with a corresponding risk of flash floods or landslides from moderate to heavy rainfall. These are the western-facing provinces of the Visayas that are most exposed to habagat-driven rainfall.
Coastal communities in these provinces should also take note of elevated sea conditions — see the coastal and wind forecast section below.
Mindanao and the Rest of the Country
The rest of the country — which broadly includes Mindanao, the eastern Visayas, and other areas not mentioned above — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms. PAGASA notes that some of these thunderstorms may be severe. While the overall weather picture is less alarming for these areas, severe thunderstorms can bring sudden and intense bursts of rain, flash flooding, lightning, and strong gusty winds in a short period of time.
Forecast Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
PAGASA's wind and coastal forecast for Monday is as follows:
- Northern and Eastern Luzon (seaboards facing TD Luis): Strong to gale-force winds are forecast, with rough to very rough seas. Fishing boats and small watercraft should not venture out.
- Southern Luzon and Visayas (western seaboard): Light to moderate winds, with slight to moderate seas. Conditions are generally manageable but should still be monitored.
- Mindanao: Light to moderate winds from the southwest, with slight seas (0.6 to 1.5 meters). Relatively calmer conditions for coastal areas.
Specific sea state heights and gale warning details should be confirmed directly from the latest PAGASA bulletin, as coastal conditions can shift rapidly when a tropical depression is in the vicinity.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Alert Level Means
PAGASA's forecast table identifies several hazard categories in effect today. Understanding what these mean can help you take the right action.
Possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to heavy rains — This is PAGASA's way of flagging that rainfall intensity is high enough that rivers may overflow their banks quickly and that water may rush down hillsides with little warning. If you live near a river, creek, estero, or on a hillside or mountainous area in any of the provinces named above, you should already know your evacuation route and stay alert to announcements from your local disaster risk reduction and management office (LDRRMO).
Possible flash floods or landslides due to severe thunderstorms — Even in areas not directly under the cloud bands of TD Luis or the habagat, severe thunderstorms can dump intense rainfall in a very short time, triggering flash floods in low-lying areas. This applies to much of the rest of the country today.
No tropical cyclone wind signals are currently raised over any part of the Philippines as of this bulletin. To understand the full system of weather warnings PAGASA uses — from rainfall color codes to storm signals and heat index categories — read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What Today's Weather Means for You
Commuters (Metro Manila and Luzon)
Monday morning commuters across Metro Manila and provincial cities in Luzon should expect heavy traffic slowdowns caused by flooded streets and reduced visibility from rain. Leave earlier than usual. Avoid underpasses, low-lying roads, and streets adjacent to rivers or drainage channels during heavy rain. Keep a rain jacket or umbrella accessible at all times today.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
PAGASA's wind and sea forecast points to rough to very rough conditions on the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon — the seas closest to TD Luis. Fisherfolk and small-vessel operators in these areas, including along the coasts of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Quezon, are strongly advised not to set out to sea today. The system's near-stationary position means these conditions may persist. Even on the southern Luzon and Visayas seaboards, check the latest PAGASA bulletin before departure.
Farmers
The prolonged rain from a nearly stationary TD Luis is a double-edged concern for farmers. In rice-growing areas of Cagayan Valley and Aurora, waterlogging and crop damage from sustained rainfall are real risks. Farmers in hillside and upland areas — particularly in the Cordillera — should also assess the stability of their land and avoid working on steep slopes today due to landslide risk.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents and students in the directly affected provinces — particularly Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, and Metro Manila — should monitor announcements from their respective schools and local government units. Class suspensions are at the discretion of local executives, but given the flash flood risk across much of Luzon, families should be prepared for potential disruptions. Keep emergency contact numbers accessible.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Sites
Workers engaged in outdoor construction, utility repair, agricultural labor, or other field work across Luzon, and in western Visayas provinces such as Antique, Iloilo, and Negros Occidental, should follow safety protocols for working in wet and potentially flooding conditions. Work near slopes, excavations, or bodies of water should be suspended if conditions worsen.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's temperature data in this bulletin references readings from weather stations, with observations noted as of 6:00 AM and noon (12:00 PM) timeframes. Cloud cover and rainfall from TD Luis and the habagat are expected to moderate temperatures across affected areas — particularly in Luzon — keeping conditions cooler than typical for this time of year. Areas under thick cloud cover and active rainfall will feel significantly cooler than clear areas. No extreme heat index advisories were issued in this bulletin.
Sunrise today is at 5:42 AM and sunset at 6:21 PM, per PAGASA's astronomical data. Moonrise and moonset times are also noted in the bulletin for reference.
Bottom Line
Bottom line: With Tropical Depression Luis sitting nearly stationary east of Aurora and the southwest monsoon active over the western Visayas, the single most important thing you should do today — especially if you are in Luzon or western Visayas — is stay away from rivers, creeks, esteros, and unstable hillsides. Flash floods can develop quickly and without visible warning under sustained moderate to heavy rain. Do not cross flooded roads or bridges, even on foot. Monitor your local government's advisories and check official PAGASA updates regularly.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.