MANILA, July 23, 2026 — Two weather systems are combining to bring widespread rain, thunderstorms, and the risk of flash floods and landslides to much of the Philippines this Thursday. Tropical Depression "Kiyapo," approaching from the Pacific, and an active southwest monsoon are together placing nearly every part of the country under cloudy, wet conditions today, according to a forecast bulletin issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) at 4:00 AM.
While no tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised as of the bulletin's issuance, PAGASA is tracking Kiyapo closely as it moves toward the archipelago, and the combination of its outer rain bands with the southwest monsoon means conditions could deteriorate quickly in vulnerable areas — particularly those prone to flooding and landslides.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
Two separate but interacting weather systems are responsible for today's conditions across the Philippines.
The first is Tropical Depression "Kiyapo." At 3:00 AM Thursday, PAGASA placed the center of Kiyapo at approximately 960 kilometers east of Central Luzon, at coordinates 15.4°N, 130.6°E. The system is carrying maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near its center, with gusts reaching up to 55 km/h. It is moving west-northwestward at 20 km/h — a track that points it toward the Philippine landmass. A tropical depression is the weakest category of a tropical cyclone, but even at this stage, it can produce significant rainfall well beyond its center, particularly through its trough — the elongated band of clouds and rain that extends outward from the system.
The second system is the habagat, or southwest monsoon. The habagat is a seasonal wind pattern that brings warm, moisture-laden air from the southwest across the Philippines, typically from June through September. When it is active, it funnels heavy rainfall into the western and southern parts of the country. Today, PAGASA says the southwest monsoon is affecting Mindanao and the western sections of Southern Luzon and Visayas — some of the most heavily populated parts of the country.
Together, these two systems are producing a broad swath of cloud cover, rain, and thunderstorm activity from Mindanao in the south to Luzon in the north.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Mindanao, Western Visayas, Negros Island, Central Visayas, Occidental Mindoro, and Palawan
These areas will bear the direct influence of the southwest monsoon today. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms throughout the period. The agency warns that moderate to at times heavy rainfall in these areas could trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in low-lying coastal areas and mountainous terrain. Residents in flood-prone barangays and communities near hillsides should remain alert and monitor water levels and official advisories from their local disaster risk reduction offices.
Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, and Romblon
These regions will feel the effects of Kiyapo's trough — the outer rain-producing bands of the tropical depression spreading westward. PAGASA expects cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms here as well, with the same hazard of possible flash floods and landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rainfall. Eastern Visayas and Bicol, which have complex terrain and histories of flooding during wet-season events, should take these warnings seriously even in the absence of a formal wind signal.
Metro Manila and the Rest of Luzon
The national capital region and the remaining provinces of Luzon will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies, with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms driven by localized thunderstorm activity. The weather here is less severe than in the south and east, but PAGASA cautions that flash floods and landslides remain possible in areas that experience severe thunderstorms. Commuters in Metro Manila should be prepared for sudden, short but intense downpours that can quickly flood low-lying streets and underpasses.
Decoding the Warnings: What the Hazards Actually Mean
PAGASA's forecast does not raise any formal tropical cyclone wind signals for Kiyapo as of this bulletin — the system is still nearly 1,000 kilometers away. However, the agency explicitly flags the risks of flash floods and landslides in the affected regions. These are not routine cautions. Flash floods can develop within minutes of intense rainfall, especially in areas near rivers, creeks, and drainage channels. Landslides are most likely in areas with steep slopes, loose soil, or recent deforestation.
If you live in a community identified by your local government as a flood- or landslide-prone zone, the presence of these hazard flags in a PAGASA forecast is your cue to review your evacuation plan and stay in contact with your barangay officials. For a full explanation of how PAGASA categorizes weather hazards and what each level requires you to do, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
Winds across the country are light to moderate today, but coastal waters are elevated enough to pose risks for small boats and fishing vessels. PAGASA's wind and sea forecast, valid for the same period, breaks down as follows:
Mindanao and Palawan: Light to moderate winds blowing from the west to southwest. Coastal waters are slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.5 meters — the highest seas forecast for any area today. This is the danger zone for small fishing boats and bancas.
Visayas and the rest of Southern Luzon: Light to moderate winds from the northwest to west. Coastal wave heights of 0.6 to 1.5 meters.
The rest of Luzon: Light to moderate winds blowing from the northeast to north. Wave heights of 0.6 to 1.2 meters.
While none of these wave heights are at gale-warning levels, seas of up to 2.5 meters in the waters around Mindanao and Palawan are considered rough conditions for small, motorized fishing vessels. Mariners and fisherfolk are strongly advised to assess sea conditions before departing and to monitor PAGASA's latest maritime advisories.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
For Metro Manila and surrounding areas, PAGASA's most recent temperature data — recorded at the Science Garden station in Diliman, Quezon City, for the 24-hour period ending 8:00 PM Wednesday, July 22 — showed a maximum temperature of 33.9°C recorded at 3:00 PM, and a minimum of 25.0°C at 6:00 AM. Relative humidity peaked at 94% and dipped to a low of 55%.
The high humidity combined with temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s means it will feel significantly hotter than the thermometer reading during dry or partly sunny spells — a concern for outdoor workers and those without air conditioning. When skies are clear between rain events, the combination of heat and moisture can make conditions feel oppressive. Drink water regularly and take breaks in the shade if you are working outside.
What It Means for You
Commuters: Prepare for sudden, heavy downpours at any time of day, particularly in Metro Manila and urban centers across the Visayas and Mindanao. Carry rain gear. Build extra travel time into your schedule — flooded streets and reduced visibility during thunderstorms can cause significant traffic disruptions. Avoid walking through floodwater of unknown depth.
Fisherfolk and small-boat operators: Wave heights of up to 2.5 meters in the waters off Mindanao and Palawan are the most significant concern for maritime safety today. Do not take small boats out into these conditions. Even in areas with lower wave heights — the Visayas and Southern Luzon — scattered thunderstorms can bring sudden squalls that change sea conditions rapidly. When in doubt, stay ashore and wait for a clearer forecast.
Farmers: The combination of rain from the southwest monsoon and Kiyapo's trough brings both risk and opportunity. Accumulated rainfall in the coming days may benefit rice paddies and vegetable farms, but the risk of flash floods washing away crops or damaging irrigation infrastructure is real, particularly in low-lying farms in Mindanao, Bicol, and Eastern Visayas. Secure loose farm equipment and monitor field drainage.
Students, parents, and school administrators: With scattered to widespread rains forecast in most regions, class suspensions may be called in localities that experience heavy and sustained rainfall. Monitor announcements from your local government units and school division offices throughout the day. Keep emergency contact numbers updated.
Outdoor and construction workers: Postpone work at heights — scaffolding, rooftop construction, electrical line work — if thunderstorms develop in your area. Lightning is a real and underappreciated hazard during thunderstorm events. Seek shelter immediately when thunder is heard. The humid conditions today also increase the risk of heat-related illness during sunny intervals, so stay hydrated.
Tidal Information for Manila Bay
For reference, PAGASA's bulletin includes tidal predictions for Manila Bay today, July 23, courtesy of NAMRIA: High tide of 0.99 meters at 4:44 AM, and a low tide of 0.37 meters at 1:57 PM. Sunrise over Metro Manila is at 5:37 AM and sunset at 6:28 PM. The moon, currently at 69% illumination, rises at 1:23 PM and sets at 12:09 AM.
Bottom Line
Bottom line: With Tropical Depression Kiyapo approaching from the east and the southwest monsoon active across wide swaths of the country, today is not a day to be caught unprepared by rain. Flash floods and landslides are the primary hazards in Mindanao, the Visayas, Bicol, and Eastern Visayas. Even in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, sudden thunderstorms can bring dangerous street flooding. Check your surroundings, know your evacuation route if you live in a hazard-prone area, and keep one eye on official updates throughout the day.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.