MANILA, Philippines — September 5, 2026 — A Tropical Depression lurking east-northeast of extreme Northern Luzon and a powerful southwest monsoon are teaming up to deliver a wet and potentially dangerous Saturday across much of Luzon and the Visayas, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). The state weather bureau issued this forecast at 4:00 AM on Saturday, September 5, 2026, valid until 4:00 AM on Sunday, September 6.
For millions of Filipinos — from farmers in the Ilocos and Cordillera highlands to commuters in Metro Manila and fisherfolk along Luzon's western seaboard — today's weather demands caution. Here is everything you need to know.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
Two weather systems are at work today. The dominant one is the southwest monsoon, or "habagat" in Filipino — the seasonal wind pattern that blows moist air from the South China Sea across the Philippines every year from roughly June through September. When habagat is active and strong, it funnels large amounts of moisture-laden air onto the western side of Luzon and the Visayas, producing prolonged, heavy rainfall that can last for days rather than hours.
Reinforcing the habagat today is a Tropical Depression currently located 685 kilometers east-northeast of extreme Northern Luzon, tracking coordinates at approximately 22.8°N, 127.7°E. Although the system is outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and no tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised over any part of the country, the Tropical Depression is close enough to pump additional moisture into the monsoon flow and intensify rainfall over the northernmost parts of Luzon. PAGASA reports the system carries maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, with gusts reaching up to 70 km/h, and is moving northward at 5 km/h.
Residents in Mindanao, meanwhile, are feeling the effects of localized thunderstorm activity — weather generated by intense daytime heating rather than a large monsoon system — which can still produce brief but heavy downpours.
Region-by-Region Forecast: Where the Rain Falls Hardest
Northern Luzon: Heaviest Rain Today
The Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), and Cagayan Valley are in line for the most severe weather today. PAGASA forecasts heavy to intense rainfall in these areas, driven directly by the southwest monsoon and enhanced by the nearby Tropical Depression. This is not a brief afternoon shower — this is the kind of sustained, drenching rain that raises rivers, triggers landslides in mountainous terrain, and floods low-lying communities.
Residents in CAR provinces such as Benguet, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Kalinga, Abra, Apayao, and Baguio City, as well as Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, and the Cagayan Valley provinces of Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, and Batanes, should be on high alert today. Flash flooding and landslides are the primary risks in these areas.
Metro Manila and Central Luzon: Cloudy With Scattered Rain
For Metro Manila, Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon), and Mimaropa (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan), PAGASA expects cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, caused by the southwest monsoon. Rain may come in bursts, particularly during the afternoon and evening. Street flooding is possible in flood-prone urban areas of Metro Manila and nearby provinces.
Central Luzon — Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, and Zambales — will similarly experience cloudy skies with scattered rain and thunderstorms from the southwest monsoon.
The Visayas: Rain and Thunderstorms Across the Region
Much of the Visayas will not be spared. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Western Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Aklan, Bangui, and Northern Samar, with the southwest monsoon again identified as the primary cause. Residents and travelers across Panay, Samar, Leyte, and the surrounding islands should plan for wet conditions throughout the day.
The rest of the Visayas — areas not under the direct path of the habagat — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, with conditions described by PAGASA as likely fair with possible brief heavy episodes.
Mindanao: Isolated Showers, Generally Fair
Mindanao will see the most manageable weather today. PAGASA forecasts partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms driven by localized convection — meaning the heat of the day building up enough energy to produce brief, intense afternoon or evening downpours in some areas. While these showers can be heavy when they occur, they are typically short-lived and localized. Overall conditions across Mindanao are described as fair with possible severe thunderstorms in isolated areas.
Coastal Waters and Wind Conditions
Seafarers and fisherfolk need to pay close attention to conditions on the water today. PAGASA reports that wind over Luzon is coming from the west, with speeds of 10 to 25 km/h, producing slight to moderate coastal waters with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.5 meters in some areas.
The rest of the country can expect varying coastal conditions depending on local winds and the influence of the southwest monsoon. Small vessels and bancas are advised to exercise caution, particularly along the western coasts of Luzon where monsoon winds are most direct.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Level Means for You
No tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised anywhere in the Philippines as of this bulletin. The Tropical Depression remains outside PAR, and PAGASA has not yet issued any storm signals for any province. However, the rainfall warnings associated with the southwest monsoon and the nearby Tropical Depression's moisture enhancement remain significant, particularly for Northern Luzon.
If you are unsure how PAGASA's different warning levels — from rainfall color codes to storm signals — translate into real-world risk, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings. Understanding these levels can help you make faster, better decisions when conditions worsen.
Even without a formal cyclone warning, the forecast of heavy to intense rainfall in Northern Luzon is a serious alert. Heavy rainfall means significant amounts of rain falling within a short period, enough to cause flash flooding and landslides, especially in mountainous provinces of the Cordillera. Residents in these areas should not wait for official evacuation orders — know your area's flood and landslide risk ahead of time, and move proactively if you are in a vulnerable location.
What Today's Weather Means for You
Commuters
If you are traveling in Metro Manila, Central Luzon, or Calabarzon today, expect slick roads, reduced visibility during heavy rain bursts, and possible street flooding during peak rainfall. Allow extra travel time and avoid low-lying roads and underpasses during active downpours. In Northern Luzon, travel on mountain roads in the Cordillera, particularly those prone to landslides and rockfalls, should be deferred if heavy rain is ongoing or has recently occurred.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
PAGASA advises caution on coastal waters off Luzon today, where wave heights can reach up to 2.5 meters in some areas under westerly winds. Small fishing vessels and motorized bancas should assess conditions carefully before heading out. The habagat is actively pushing swells along the western seaboard of Luzon. If in doubt, stay ashore — no catch is worth risking lives in rough seas.
Farmers
Farmers in Ilocos, CAR, and Cagayan Valley face the dual risks of waterlogged fields and potential flash flooding in low-lying agricultural areas today. Those with crops near riverbanks or flood channels should monitor water levels closely. Farmers in Central Luzon and the Visayas can expect intermittent rainfall that, while beneficial in moderate amounts, could damage crops or disrupt harvest schedules if rains are persistent.
Students, Parents, and School Administrators
With heavy to intense rain forecast for Northern Luzon and widespread showers across the Visayas and Metro Manila, parents and school administrators should monitor local government and DepEd announcements regarding class suspensions. Schools in flood-prone barangays in Metro Manila and high-risk landslide areas in CAR and Cagayan Valley should be especially attentive to rapidly changing conditions.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, market vendors, and others who work outdoors across Luzon and the Visayas should prepare for extended wet conditions today. Waterproof gear is strongly recommended. Workers in elevated or exposed areas in the Cordillera and Cagayan Valley should exercise particular caution given the risk of landslides during and after intense rainfall.
Temperature and Humidity
PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden in Quezon City recorded the following extremes for the 24-hour period ending 8:00 PM yesterday, Friday, September 4, 2026:
- Maximum Temperature: 28.6°C (recorded at 2:00 PM)
- Minimum Temperature: 25.4°C (recorded at 5:00 AM)
- Maximum Relative Humidity: 96% (recorded at 9:00 AM)
- Minimum Relative Humidity: 74% (recorded at 7:00 PM)
The high humidity — reaching 96% — reflects how moisture-saturated the atmosphere is under active monsoon conditions. Even when rain is not actively falling, the air will feel heavy, damp, and uncomfortable. Outdoor workers and those without air conditioning should stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade when possible.
Astronomical and Tidal Information
For Saturday, September 5, 2026, PAGASA provides the following information for planning purposes: Low tide is predicted at 2:56 PM, while Sunset is at 6:05 PM. Residents in coastal communities, particularly those prone to tidal flooding, should be aware that even at low tide, storm-driven swells from the habagat can push water levels higher than normal along the western coasts of Luzon.
Bottom Line
If you are in Northern Luzon — particularly the Cordillera, Ilocos Region, or Cagayan Valley — the single most important thing you can do today is stay alert for flash flooding and landslides. Heavy to intense rainfall is forecast for your area, driven by the southwest monsoon and enhanced by a Tropical Depression east-northeast of the country. Do not cross swollen rivers, do not ignore rising water levels near your home, and follow the instructions of your local disaster risk reduction officers. For everyone else across Luzon and the Visayas, carry an umbrella, check your local conditions before heading out, and avoid flood-prone areas during heavy rain bursts.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph