Super Typhoon ROSAL (international name: CHAMPI) slightly intensified on Tuesday afternoon, October 20, 2026, while moving west-northwestward over the Philippine Sea east of Central Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h and gusts of up to 240 km/h, according to PAGASA's Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 2 issued at 5:00 PM.
As of 4:00 PM Tuesday, the center of the typhoon's eye was located 1,270 kilometers east of Central Luzon at coordinates 16.6°N, 134.0°E, with a central pressure of 935 hPa, PAGASA reported. Tropical cyclone winds extend outward up to 780 kilometers from the center.
Forecast Track: Closest Approach to Extreme Northern Luzon Thursday to Friday
PAGASA said ROSAL will move generally west-northwestward until Wednesday, October 21, before shifting to a generally northwestward track through Friday morning, October 23. On the current forecast track, the typhoon will be closest to Extreme Northern Luzon between Thursday, October 22, and Friday, October 23.
The typhoon is then expected to turn north-northwestward to northward by Friday afternoon and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday evening or Saturday, October 24, early morning, according to the bulletin.
PAGASA's 96-hour forecast places the center approximately 725 kilometers north-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes at 2:00 PM on Saturday, October 24 — outside PAR — with maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h, downgraded to Typhoon category by that point.
Intensity Forecast: Further Strengthening Possible Before Gradual Weakening
PAGASA said ROSAL is forecast to maintain super typhoon strength and further intensification remains possible while it moves over the Philippine Sea. The storm is expected to peak at 205 km/h maximum sustained winds by 2:00 AM Wednesday before gradually weakening into a Typhoon category system by Thursday evening or Friday early morning, October 23.
The agency's 12-hour forecast places ROSAL at 1,045 kilometers east of Northern Luzon by 2:00 AM on Wednesday at 205 km/h; by 2:00 PM Wednesday it is expected 800 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan, still at 205 km/h moving west-northwestward at 25 km/h.
Wind Signal No. 1 Raised Over Parts of Northern Luzon
PAGASA placed several areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1 as of the 5:00 PM bulletin. Affected areas include Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud), and the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan covering the towns of Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Santa Teresita, Camalaniugan, Aparri, Buguey, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Santa Praxedes, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Pamplona, Ballesteros, Abulug, and Allacapan.
Also under Signal No. 1 are the northeastern portion of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan) and the northeastern portion of Catanduanes (Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, Gigmoto). Signal No. 1 carries a warning lead time of 36 hours, with expected wind speeds of 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort Scale 6 to 7) and minimal to minor threat to life and property.
PAGASA noted that the highest wind signal that may be raised during ROSAL's passage is Wind Signal No. 2 or 3.
Strong to Gale-Force Gusts to Affect Wider Areas by Wednesday and Thursday
Beyond the areas under formal wind signals, PAGASA warned that the combined effect of the northeasterly windflow and the periphery of ROSAL will bring strong to gale-force gusts — particularly in coastal and upland areas — across a broadening swath of the country in the coming days.
On Tuesday, October 20, gusty conditions were expected in Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Cagayan, Isabela, Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, most of Caraga, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Sarangani, Davao del Sur, and Davao Occidental.
On Wednesday, October 21, affected areas expand to include the Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Polillo Islands, Bicol Region, Romblon, Eastern Visayas, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Siquijor, Bohol, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Davao Region, Sarangani, and Zamboanga del Norte.
By Thursday, October 22, PAGASA said gusty conditions are expected over most of the country.
Gale Warning Issued; Very Rough Seas Off Northern and Eastern Luzon
PAGASA issued Gale Warning No. 1 at 5:00 PM Tuesday, covering the seaboard of Extreme Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Northern and Southern Luzon.
Under the 24-hour sea condition outlook, wave heights of up to 4.5 meters — classified as very rough seas — are forecast off the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes, the seaboard of Isabela, the northeastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan, the southeastern seaboard of Batanes, and the northeastern seaboard of Babuyan Islands. PAGASA said sea travel is risky for all vessel types in these areas and that all mariners must remain in port or seek safe harbor immediately.
Rough seas of up to 4.0 meters are expected off the northern and eastern seaboards of Batanes, the remaining seaboards of Babuyan Islands and mainland Cagayan, the northern seaboards of Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur, the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar and Eastern Samar, and the eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon. Waves of up to 3.5 meters are forecast off Polillo Islands and the northern seaboard of Aurora.
PAGASA advised mariners of small seacrafts and all types of motorbancas not to venture out to sea under rough sea conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
PAGASA Advisory to the Public and Disaster Officials
In the bulletin, DOST-PAGASA urged the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons in areas highly or very highly susceptible to typhoon hazards were advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
PAGASA also noted that heavy rainfall and severe winds may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone, and that the track may still shift within the limits of the forecast cone. For heavy rainfall warnings and thunderstorm advisories specific to an area, the agency directed the public to monitor products issued by their local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
A separate Weather Advisory No. 1, also issued at 5:00 PM Tuesday, covers the heavy rainfall outlook due to ROSAL. The next Tropical Cyclone Bulletin was scheduled for 11:00 PM Tuesday, October 20, 2026.
Photo credit: Photo courtesy of DOST-PAGASA