QUEZON CITY, October 22, 2026 — Super Typhoon Rosal is bearing down on the northern Philippines on Thursday, bringing violent winds, intense rainfall, and serious hazards to Batanes and northeastern Luzon, the state weather bureau PAGASA warned in its 4:00 AM forecast bulletin today.
The typhoon's presence is shaping weather conditions not just in the far north, but — through its outer rainbands and atmospheric trough — across a wide swath of Luzon and the Visayas. Even areas far from the typhoon's center should prepare for disruptive rain throughout the day.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
Super Typhoon Rosal, known internationally as Champi, is a powerful tropical cyclone — a massive rotating storm system that draws energy from warm ocean water and generates destructive winds, heavy rainfall, and large ocean waves as it moves. As of 3:00 AM today, Rosal's eye was located approximately 565 kilometers east of Calayan, Cagayan, or 505 kilometers east of Basco, Batanes, at coordinates 20.0°N, 126.8°E. It is moving northwestward at 20 km/h.
The storm is carrying maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h near its center, with gusts reaching as high as 240 km/h — placing it firmly in the super typhoon category. As Rosal tracks toward the north, its outer circulation and atmospheric trough are dragging moisture deep into Luzon and parts of the Visayas, producing cloudy skies and widespread rainfall well beyond the typhoon's immediate core.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
Batanes faces the most severe conditions in the country today. PAGASA describes the weather there as stormy, driven directly by Typhoon Rosal. Residents can expect intense rainfall with a minor to moderate threat to life and property from strong winds. Flash floods and landslides are a serious and immediate possibility. Anyone in Batanes should already be in a safe location and must not venture outdoors unnecessarily.
Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, and Isabela will experience rains with gusty winds, also caused by Rosal. PAGASA warns of a minimal to minor threat to life and property from strong winds in these provinces, with moderate to heavy rainfall raising the risk of flash floods and landslides. Residents along mountain slopes, riverbanks, and low-lying coastal areas in these provinces should be on alert.
The Bicol Region, the rest of the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), the rest of Cagayan Valley, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Aurora, Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar can expect cloudy skies with scattered rain and thunderstorms. Rosal's outer circulation and trough are responsible for these conditions. Flash floods and landslides remain possible, particularly during heavy rain episodes.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon not specifically listed above will see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, generated by localized thunderstorm activity. PAGASA warns that flash floods are possible during severe thunderstorm episodes. Metro Manila residents should be ready for sudden, heavy downpours particularly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Visayas
Western Visayas and Negros Island Region will have cloudy skies with scattered rain and thunderstorms. PAGASA attributes these conditions to the trough of Typhoon Rosal, and warns that moderate to at times heavy rains could trigger flash floods and landslides in susceptible areas.
Northern Samar and Eastern Samar — which straddle the Luzon-Visayas boundary — are likewise under Rosal's influence, with cloudy skies, scattered rain, and thunderstorms forecast. The same landslide and flash flood risk applies.
The eastern sections of the Visayas face moderate to strong winds and moderate to rough coastal waters, with wave heights of 2.5 to 4.0 meters. The rest of the Visayas will experience light to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.5 meters.
Mindanao
Zamboanga Peninsula, Lanao del Norte, and Misamis Occidental are under the influence of Rosal's trough and can expect cloudy skies with scattered rain and thunderstorms. Moderate to at times heavy rainfall in these areas raises the risk of flash floods and landslides.
The rest of Mindanao — including Metro Davao, Caraga, SOCCSKSARGEN, BARMM, and other provinces not listed above — falls under the "rest of the country" category in PAGASA's forecast, where partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms are expected, driven by localized thunderstorm activity.
Mindanao's coastal waters are described as slight to moderate, with waves of 0.6 to 2.5 meters, under light to moderate winds blowing from the northwest to southwest.
Also Covered: Palawan
Palawan is listed alongside Western Visayas and Negros Island Region in PAGASA's forecast, facing cloudy skies with scattered rain and thunderstorms tied to Rosal's trough. Flash floods and landslides are possible during heavy rain bursts. Coastal waters around Palawan will be slight to moderate.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Hazard Level Means
PAGASA uses specific language to describe hazard levels, and understanding what they mean in practice can be the difference between safety and harm. To fully understand how PAGASA structures its warning system, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
For today's bulletin, here is what the key terms mean:
- "Stormy" conditions (Batanes): This is the most severe weather description in today's forecast. It reflects the near-direct influence of Rosal's destructive winds and intense rainfall. Residents should treat this as a life-safety situation — stay indoors, stay away from windows, do not travel.
- "Minor to moderate threat to life and property" (Batanes): PAGASA is warning that the combination of extreme winds and heavy rain in Batanes poses a meaningful danger. Structures may be damaged; flooding and landslides are not just possible but expected under these conditions.
- "Minimal to minor threat to life and property" (Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela): Lower than Batanes, but still a real risk. Heavy rain and gusty winds can still cause flash floods, fallen trees, and debris. Treat this seriously, especially near slopes and rivers.
- Flash flood and landslide warnings: These hazards are flagged in nearly every part of the forecast. They can develop rapidly — within minutes of intense rainfall — and do not require the typhoon's eye to be nearby.
- "Moderate to rough" coastal waters (2.5–4.0 meters): These are dangerous sea conditions. Waves at this height can capsize small vessels and endanger even medium-sized boats. PAGASA effectively advises against sea travel in these zones.
What It Means for You
Commuters
In Metro Manila and other areas under the "isolated thunderstorms" forecast, be prepared for sudden, heavy downpours that can cause rapid street flooding. Allow extra travel time, avoid underpasses during heavy rain, and keep weather updates accessible on your phone. In Batanes and northeastern Luzon, travel on any road is strongly discouraged today.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Do not go out to sea today if you are operating along the eastern sections of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, or the Visayas. Coastal waters there are moderate to rough, with waves from 2.5 to 4.0 meters — highly dangerous for small and medium vessels. Even in areas with slight to moderate seas (0.6 to 2.5 meters), conditions can deteriorate quickly as Rosal moves. Stay ashore and wait for the all-clear from PAGASA.
Farmers
Farmers across Cagayan Valley, Ilocos, Bicol, Western Visayas, and parts of Mindanao should secure or harvest any crops that can be salvaged before heavy rain intensifies. Flooding of low-lying agricultural land is a real risk in many of these regions today. Do not work in open fields during thunderstorms.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Families in Batanes and the typhoon-affected provinces of northeastern Luzon should follow the guidance of local government units regarding class suspensions. Even in Metro Manila and other areas with isolated thunderstorm risk, parents should monitor weather conditions before and during school hours, as afternoon downpours are possible.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, utility crews, and others who work outdoors should note that gusty winds are forecast across much of northern and central Luzon. Flying debris, unstable scaffolding, and downed trees are hazards during typhoon conditions and severe thunderstorms. Supervisors should review safety protocols and halt work in exposed areas if conditions worsen.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's Science Garden station in Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 33.7°C at 2:00 PM yesterday and a minimum of 25.5°C at 6:00 AM. Relative humidity peaked at 90% at 6:00 AM and dropped to a minimum of 57% at 1:00 PM. These readings reflect conditions at the Quezon City station for the 24-hour period ending 8:00 PM on October 21, 2026.
Tidal Information for Metro Manila
For Manila Bay, PAGASA and NAMRIA note the following tides for today: High tide at 6:03 AM (0.86 m), Low tide at 2:23 PM (0.06 m), and a secondary High tide at 9:10 PM (0.54 m). Sunrise is at 5:49 AM and sunset at 5:32 PM. The moon rises at 2:44 PM and sets at 2:03 AM, with an illumination of 84%.
Bottom Line
If you are in Batanes or any province in northeastern Luzon — particularly Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, and Isabela — do not wait for conditions to worsen before acting. Super Typhoon Rosal is a powerful and dangerous storm. Stay indoors, stay away from floodwaters and unstable slopes, and keep your family informed. Elsewhere in the country, be ready for sudden rain and thunderstorms, and keep fisherfolk away from rough seas. Your single most important action today: check your local government's advisories and have a ready bag and evacuation plan prepared if you are in Rosal's path.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.