Super Typhoon Rosal (international name: Champi) was located 990 kilometres east of Northern Luzon as of 4:00 AM on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, packing maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h and gustiness of up to 265 km/h, according to Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 4 issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) at 5:00 AM.
PAGASA placed the storm's center at coordinates 17.6°N, 131.1°E, with a central pressure of 900 hectopascals. It is moving west northwestward at 30 kilometres per hour, and strong to typhoon-force winds extend outward up to 780 kilometres from the center.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 Raised
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1 is in effect over the following areas as of the 5:00 AM bulletin: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, mainland Cagayan, the eastern portion of Isabela (covering the municipalities of Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan, Santa Maria, Cabagan, Delfin Albano, Santo Tomas, Tumauini, San Pablo, Ilagan City, San Mariano, and Dinapigue), the northern and central portions of Apayao (Calanasan, Luna, Santa Marcela, Flora, Pudtol, and Kabugao), the northeastern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud and Adams), and the northeastern portion of Catanduanes (Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, and Gigmoto).
Signal No. 1 carries a warning lead time of 36 hours, with expected wind speeds ranging from 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort Scale 6 to 7). PAGASA described potential impacts as "minimal to minor threat to life and property."
PAGASA noted that the highest wind signal that may be raised during the passage of Rosal is Signal No. 2 or 3.
Rosal's Projected Track Toward Extreme Northern Luzon
According to PAGASA's track and intensity forecast, Rosal will continue moving west northwestward on Wednesday before shifting northwestward until Friday morning (October 23), then recurving northeastward by Sunday (October 25).
The tropical cyclone is forecast to be closest to Extreme Northern Luzon between Thursday (October 22) and Friday (October 23) afternoon. PAGASA projects Rosal will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday evening or early Saturday morning (October 24).
The agency's 12-hour forecast places the center at 790 kilometres east of Aparri, Cagayan by 2:00 PM on October 21, maintaining its super typhoon intensity at 215 km/h. By 2:00 AM on October 22 (24-hour forecast), the system is expected to be 550 kilometres east of Basco, Batanes, weakening slightly to 205 km/h but still at super typhoon category.
The storm is forecast to further weaken to typhoon category — 175 km/h — by 2:00 PM on October 22, when it is projected to be 405 kilometres east of Itbayat, Batanes. By the 96-hour forecast at 2:00 AM on October 25, Rosal is expected to be 970 kilometres north-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon and outside PAR, carrying winds of 110 km/h as a severe tropical storm.
Further Intensification Possible Before Weakening Begins
PAGASA said further intensification remains possible within the next six hours as Rosal moves over the Philippine Sea. A weakening trend is then forecast to begin, with the system expected to downgrade to typhoon category on Thursday and to severe tropical storm by Sunday (October 25).
The agency cautioned that heavy rainfall and severe winds may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone, and that the track may still shift within the cone's limits.
Strong to Gale-Force Gusts Across Wide Areas on Wednesday
Even outside areas under wind signals, PAGASA said the northeasterly windflow and the periphery of Rosal will produce strong to gale-force gusts, particularly in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds.
On Wednesday, October 21, affected areas include the Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Bicol Region, Romblon, Eastern Visayas, Siquijor, Bohol, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Davao Region, and Sarangani.
On Thursday, October 22, the threat extends to most of Luzon and Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Sarangani, Davao Occidental, and Davao Oriental.
On Friday, October 23, most of Luzon and Visayas remain affected, along with Camiguin, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, and Davao Oriental.
Dangerous Seas Off Luzon and Visayas
A Gale Warning is in effect over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Visayas, as stated in Gale Warning No. 2 also issued at 5:00 AM on October 21.
Within the next 24 hours, PAGASA warned of seas up to 8.0 metres off the seaboards of Batanes and the northern and eastern seaboards of Cagayan including the Babuyan Islands. Waves of up to 6.0 metres are forecast off the remaining seaboards of Cagayan and the seaboard of Isabela, and up to 5.0 metres off the eastern seaboard of northern Aurora and the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes.
Waves reaching up to 4.5 metres are forecast off the remaining seaboards of Aurora, the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands, the northern seaboards of Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Northern Samar, and the eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon. PAGASA advised that "sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels" in these waters, urging all mariners to remain in port or seek shelter immediately.
Rough seas of up to 4.0 metres are forecast off the eastern seaboards of northern Quezon and Eastern Samar, the remaining seaboard of Northern Samar, and the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte. Waves of up to 3.0 metres are expected off the eastern seaboards of Dinagat Islands, Siargao-Bucas Grande Island Group, and Davao Oriental, as well as the remaining seaboards of Catanduanes and Ilocos Norte. PAGASA advised mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, not to venture out to sea under these conditions.
Moderate to rough seas of up to 2.5 metres are forecast off the seaboards of Ilocos Sur, La Union, Surigao del Sur, and Surigao del Norte, the southern seaboard of Davao Oriental, the remaining eastern seaboards of Quezon, and the northwestern seaboard of Pangasinan. The eastern seaboard of Davao Occidental may see waves of up to 2.0 metres.
Public and Disaster Offices Urged to Act
PAGASA called on the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices to "take all necessary measures to protect life and property." The agency specifically advised persons in areas highly or very highly susceptible to hazards to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm and rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to local areas, PAGASA directed the public to monitor products issued by local PAGASA Regional Services Divisions. Heavy rainfall details were separately covered in Weather Advisory No. 3, also issued at 5:00 AM on Wednesday.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin was scheduled for release at 11:00 AM on Wednesday, October 21, 2026.
Photo courtesy of DOST-PAGASA