Super Typhoon Bavi is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) between Tuesday evening, July 7, and early Wednesday morning, July 8, at which point it will be assigned the local name Inday, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its latest advisory.
Wind signals may be raised over the northern and eastern portions of Northern Luzon as early as Tuesday evening, with the possibility of signals extending to parts of Southern Luzon and the Visayas not ruled out, according to PAGASA's Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 3, issued at 11 a.m. Tuesday.
Position and Intensity as of Tuesday Morning
As of 10 a.m. Tuesday, July 7, the eye of the super typhoon was located approximately 1,845 kilometers east of Central Luzon, at coordinates 16.2°N, 139.4°E — still well outside PAR. PAGASA said Bavi had slightly weakened but continued moving west-northwestward.
The system was packing maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center, with gusts of up to 230 km/h and a central pressure of 930 hPa. It was moving west-northwestward at 20 km/h, with strong to typhoon-force winds extending outward up to 800 kilometers from the center.
Forecast Track: Extreme Northern Luzon in the Path
PAGASA said Bavi is expected to maintain super typhoon strength upon entering PAR, with gradual weakening anticipated as it moves near Extreme Northern Luzon and approaches the area east of Taiwan. The weather bureau noted a low chance of landfall over any part of Luzon.
Despite the low landfall probability, the bureau said the highest wind signal likely to be raised during the typhoon's passage is Signal No. 2 or Signal No. 3 over affected areas of Northern Luzon.
Wind Signals and Affected Areas
The enhanced Southwest Monsoon, combined with the outer bands of the super typhoon, is expected to bring strong to gale-force gusts across large portions of the country. PAGASA specifically flagged coastal and upland zones as particularly exposed to these winds.
According to the advisory, the following areas are under weather watch by day:
- Tuesday, July 7: Most of Mindanao
- Wednesday, July 8: Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, most of MIMAROPA, most of the Bicol Region, most of the Visayas, and most of Mindanao
- Thursday, July 9: Most of the country
PAGASA added that the possibility of wind signals being raised over the eastern portions of Southern Luzon and the Visayas was not ruled out as the system's track and intensity are further refined.
Gale Warnings for Coastal and Sea Travel
For marine hazards, PAGASA said a Gale Warning tied to rough to very rough seas will be issued by Wednesday over the northern and eastern seaboards of the Philippines. The bureau advised the public and disaster risk reduction offices to continue closely monitoring updates as the typhoon approaches.
Coastal communities and passengers with sea travel scheduled over the coming days are urged to take heed of maritime advisories before departure.
Next Advisory Scheduled for Tuesday Night
PAGASA said the next Tropical Cyclone Advisory will be issued at 11 p.m. Tuesday, July 7, unless an intermediate advisory is released earlier due to significant changes in the storm's track or intensity.
By the Numbers
- 1,845 km — distance of Bavi's eye east of Central Luzon as of 10 a.m., July 7
- 185 km/h — maximum sustained winds near the center
- 230 km/h — peak gusts
- 930 hPa — central pressure
- 800 km — extent of strong to typhoon-force winds from the center
- 20 km/h — forward movement speed, west-northwestward
- Signal No. 2 or 3 — highest wind signal anticipated during passage
Why This Matters
Although Bavi has a low probability of making direct landfall over Luzon, its sheer size — with destructive winds extending 800 kilometers from the center — means large portions of the Philippines face significant wind and sea hazards even without a direct hit. The enhanced Southwest Monsoon amplifies risks further, placing coastal communities, upland areas, and maritime travelers across multiple regions on alert from Tuesday through Thursday. PAGASA's advisory underscores the need for disaster risk reduction offices and the public to monitor updates continuously as the system enters PAR.
Photo credit: Photo courtesy of PAGASA